emulate 小组 第三次作业贴 andrew_zwi

Andrew_zwiUID: 2670942

【题目】issue184

" It is a grave mistake to theorize before one has data."

1.不赞同也不反对，提出自己观点：在大多数的情况下，没有数据而建立的理论往往是错误，但是有时候这种错误会带来深远的影响
TS: From my view, however, it is not completely true to say that to theorize without data is a grave mistake. Actually, it is not serious or dangerous mistake, but some kind of inaccuracy and error instead. Sometimes such theory might have far-reaching influence on development of science and technology in which this theory belongs.

2. 数据对于正确理论的建立十分重要。
TS:
Adequate data, mostly, is a vital factor for building up a convincing theory.
a.理论阐述了事物间的联系，应该是普遍适用的，而没有数据或者只是拥有部分数据而建立起来的理论，难以反映大体情况。
b.理论也不能只是建立在人的主观感受或者逻辑思维之上，因为事物间正确的联系往往不是主观感觉的那么简单， 如地球是平的

3.有些时候，没有数据的理论，虽然错误，但往往对正确理论的发展提供了基石
TS: the theory might be the footstone for the right theory
A．没有数据的理论，往往为后人提供了研究该理论的思维方法

字数： 442

正文：
Is it a "grave mistake" to theorize without data, as the speaker contends? From my view, generally, it is not completely true to say that to theorize without data is a grave mistake. Actually, it is not serious or dangerous mistake, but some kind of inaccuracy and error instead. Sometimes such theory might have far-reaching influence on development of science and technology in which this theory belongs.

Adequate data, mostly, is a vital factor for building up a convincing theory. Theory, broadly defined as the analysis of a set of facts in their relation to one another. A theory reflecting the relations between things shall be universal. While a theory in lack of data or with partial data can not reflect the general situation. Without necessary data, many researches will become nothing but pure imagination and their results do not deserve people's attention and time.

What’s more, by theorizing before collecting data the theorist runs that risk of interpreting that data in a manner which makes it appear to lend more credence to the theory than it actually does. Consider the theory that the Earth is flat. Most of people, without geography knowledge, would be easy to believe Earth is flat from the common sense. Yet, any person with the data from current geographers must agree in all honesty that the evidence does not support the theory.

Admittedly, to theorize before one has date, in most case, is a mistake; the theory might be the footstone for the right theory. There are two very important principles to formulate a right theory: firstly, the right way to thinking and reasoning, secondly, the data from the experiment and nature. The theory formulate without data might wrong, but the logical and mathematical reasoning are right, which would greatly promote the development of right theory. Take the formation of demography theory for example. Thomas Robert Malthus, a British scholar, has become widely known for his theories concerning population and its increase or decrease in response to various factors. Those theories, most parts just based on author’s imagination and reasoning, get widespread criticisms from most scientists and philosophies. Engels called Malthus's hypothesis is “the crudest, most barbarous theory that ever existed, a system of despair which struck down all those beautiful phrases about love thy neighbor and world citizenship”. However, Malthus’ theory has profound and wide influence on the development of demography.

To sum up, I concede the importance of data in the theorizing process. However, I believe the theory without data is not grave mistake, but might be foundation of new theory. Thus, it is unnecessary that theorizing before one has data is a grave mistake.

AK_小儿UID: 2784558

Is it a "grave mistake" to theorize without data, as the speaker contends? From my view, generally, it is not completely true to say that to theorize without data is a grave mistake. Actually, it is not serious or dangerous mistake, but some kind of inaccuracy and error instead. Sometimes such theory might have far-reaching influence on development of science and technology in which this theory belongs.

Adequate data, mostly, is a vital factor for building up a convincing theory. Theory, broadly defined as the analysis of a set of facts in their relation to one another. A theory reflecting the relations between things shall be universal. While a theory in lack of data or with partial data can not reflect the general situation. Without necessary data, many researches will become nothing but pure imagination and their results do not deserve people's attention and time. (对关键词有个定义有利于文章阐述，很值得学习)

What’s more, by theorizing before collecting data the theorist runs that risk of interpreting that data in a manner which makes it appear to lend more credence to the theory than it actually does. Consider the theory that the Earth is flat. Most of people, without geography knowledge, would be easy to believe Earth is flat from the common sense. Yet, any person with the data from current geographers must agree in all honesty that the evidence does not support the theory.

Admittedly, to theorize before one has date, in most case, is a mistake; (这里最好有个转折词吧比如but) the theory might be the footstone for the right theory. There are two very important principles to formulate a right theory: firstly, the right way to thinking and reasoning, secondly, the data from the experiment and nature. The theory formulate without data might (be) wrong, but (if) the logical and mathematical reasoning are right, which (which改成it) would greatly promote the development of right theory. Take the formation of demography theory for example. Thomas Robert Malthus, a British scholar, has become widely known for his theories concerning population and its increase or decrease in response to various factors. Those theories, most parts just based on author’s imagination and reasoning, get widespread criticisms from most scientists and philosophies. Engels called Malthus's hypothesis is “the crudest, most barbarous theory that ever existed, a system of despair which struck down all those beautiful phrases about love thy neighbor and world citizenship”. However, Malthus’ theory has profound and wide influence on the development of demography.

To sum up, I concede the importance of data in the theorizing process. However, I believe the theory without data is not grave mistake, but might be foundation of new theory. Thus, it is unnecessary that theorizing before one has data is a grave mistake.
文章很完整，从grave切入，先说数据对于理论的重要性，然后说无数据的理论可能是正确理论的基石，说明不是很严重的错误。
我感觉这篇文章属于大正小负，那么是否该吧重心放在前面说明理论不能缺少数据，这一块感觉文章论述有点单薄特别是例证方面。