emulate 小组 第四次作业贴 andrew_zwi

Andrew_zwiUID: 2670942

【题目】Argument 97


The following appeared in a memo from the manager of television station KICK.

"A nationwide survey reveals that a sizeable majority of men would like to see additional sports programs on television. After television station WACK increased its sports broadcasts, its share of the television audience in its viewing area almost doubled. To gain a larger audience share in our area, and thus increase company profits, KICK should also revise its broadcast schedule to include more sports coverage."

一项全国性调查发现，大多数的男性希望在电视上看到更多的体育节目。在WACK电视台增加了体育节目后，在其收视范围内的收视率几乎增加了一倍。为在本地区获得更高收视率，并从而增加公司利润，KICK也应该修改其播出计划来播放更多的体育节目。

提纲：
1．
全国调查：和本地好象无关吧；

女人，老人，孩子如何，是否更爱看别的人更多
2．
W的经验：不一定适用我们：男女比例，生活习惯custom, habit 也许他们原先没什么体育节目，而我们有很多；
3．就算收视率增加：不代表提高利润：体育节目的花费，拍摄花费produce；广告是否能引来；


字数：454

正文：

In this memo, the manager suggests that KICK should revise its broadcast schedule to include more sports coverage, in turn, company profits increase. To substantiate this proposition, the arguer cites a national survey that most men would like to see additional sports programs on TV. In addition, the author indicates that WACK makes its share of the television audience in its viewing are almost doubled by adding more sports broadcasts. Admittedly, this suggestion seems to be somewhat convincing, but further cogitation reveals that it omits some substantial assumptions that constitute a logical argument.

The foremost and fundamental assumption upon which this argument rests is that more and more people are willing to watch additional sport programs on TV. To support it, the owner cites the result of a national survey. The nationwide survey, however, does not necessarily apply to local citizens. It is quite possible that people in here do not follow these general trends. What’s more, the KICK might get more profit if it changes the schedule to include more other kind of program, such as entertainment programs (due to more people than man, women and children for instance, would like to watch entertainment programs). Thus, without more marketing information about people in suburban town, it is difficult to assess whether the profit would rise.

Even assuming that nationwide statistics applies equally to local people, the arguer relies on the additional supposition that KICK are similar to WACK, that is to say KICK would gain double share of the television audience. Yet, WACK can be repeated elsewhere might nevertheless be unwarranted. Perhaps the same course of action would be ineffective on KICK due to custom differences. For instance, people live in KICK may like music more. Or perhaps, WACK has few sports programs before while KICK already has had many. In short lacking evidence that conditions on WACK are relevantly similar, the author cannot convince me that KICK would gain more profits.


Even if people in KICK are same to WACK, grow the proportion of sports would not necessarily be profitable as a result. Profitability is a function of both revenue and expense. Thus, it is entirely possible that the KICK’s costs of sports programs might render it unprofitable despite its considerable revenue. Without weighing revenue against expenses the argument’s conclusion is premature at best.

In conclusion, the argument is unpersuasive and unreceptive as it stands. To bolster it, the arguer should provide more information that nationwide tendency applies specifically to the audiences of KICK. Additionally, to better evaluate the argument, we would also need to know about supply, demand, and production cost. Therefore, if the argument had included the given factors discussed above, it would have been more thorough and logically acceptable.