emulate小组_argu53_zleung

zleungUID: 2837752

ARGUMENT53
Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs
of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.

提纲：
1，在早秋怀孕与母亲激素的分泌没有关系；婴儿的害羞是先天遗传， 不受激素影响。
2，没有证据表明青少年时期的害羞是在婴儿时期形成的；
3，调查样本过少，不具有代表性，研究者可能特意选择了有症状的婴儿，即使婴儿有代表性， 研究者只研究了两种刺激，忽视了其它刺激的影响；
3，总结，应该提供婴儿害羞与母亲m分泌的证据及婴儿害羞影响以后生活的证据；

字数：443
正文：
In this argument, the speaker concludes that increased levels of melatonin before birth can cause shyness during infancy and this infancy continues into later life. To support his conclusion, the speaker cites a follow-up study of twenty five infants in which the infants showed signs of distress when exposed to certain unfamiliar stimuli. The speaker also points out that those infants who identified themselves as shy then they grew up to teenagers thirteen years later were probably conceived in early autumn when their mothers’ production of melatonin was at an increased level. However, I found this argument logically flawed in several critical respects.

First of all, the speaker bases his conclusion on the unsound assumption that it is the mother's production of melatonin that determines whether a infant is shy. Though early autumn is a time when a mother is at her high level of melatonin production, it does not mean that it is the very reason that an infant gets effected. Moreover, a mother's level of hormone production and her health condition has nothing to do with a baby's shyness, which is a congenital characteristic inherited from its parents. The merely fact of early autumn-born infant hardly proves his conclusion.

Secondly, no evidence shows that those teenagers who identified themselves as shy were shy when they were newly born. Besides the influence of their parents' character, teenagers’ character are also effected by the environment they are brought up, maybe those shy teenagers live in a relatively confined space and have less communication with their friends than others, or what is worse, some of them suffered domestic violence during their childhood. So, other than some serious diseases, sign of shyness showed during infancy barely continues into later life.

Thirdly, the follow-up study is unconvincing for several reasons. The speaker does not provide evidence that the infants studied were randomly chosen, it is possible that the researchers chose the infants with a sign of distress particularly despite of other normal infants. Even if these twenty five infants are representative, the researchers only included such types of stimuli as an unusual odor and a tape recording of unknown voice ignoring the other possible stimuli. Moreover, sign of mild distress does not indicate the shyness of a baby, so the assumption of shyness during infancy is unfounded.

In sum, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it, the speaker must provide clear evidence that increased level of a mother's production of melatonin can cause her baby to be shy, and that shyness during infancy continues into later life. To better evaluate the argument we would need more information about the study for its confirmation.

AK_小儿UID: 2784558

In this argument, the speaker concludes that increased levels of melatonin before birth can cause shyness during infancy and this infancy continues into later life. To support his conclusion, the speaker cites a follow-up study of twenty five infants in which the infants showed signs of distress when exposed to certain unfamiliar stimuli. The speaker also points out that those infants who identified themselves as shy then they grew up to teenagers thirteen years later were probably conceived in early autumn when their mothers’ production of melatonin was at an increased level. However, I found this argument logically flawed in several critical respects(aspects吧).

First of all, the speaker bases his conclusion on the unsound assumption that it is the mother's production of melatonin that determines whether a infant is shy.(这里感觉好别扭，mother’s melatonin决定了孩子的shyness就是作者的结论，又怎么变成了assumption?) Though early autumn is a time when a mother is at her high level of melatonin production, it does not mean that it is the very reason that an infant gets effected. Moreover, a mother's level of hormone production and her health condition has nothing to do with a baby's shyness, which is a congenital characteristic inherited from its parents. The merely fact of early autumn-born infant hardly proves his conclusion.(怎么能直接说害羞是由遗传决定的呢？只能提出这种可能来反驳作者。)

Secondly, no evidence shows that those teenagers who identified themselves as shy were shy when they were newly born. Besides the influence of their parents' character, teenagers’ character are also effected by the environment they are brought up, maybe those shy teenagers live in a relatively confined space and have less communication with their friends than others, or what is worse, some of them suffered domestic violence during their childhood. So, other than some serious diseases, sign of shyness showed during infancy barely continues into later life. (反驳speaker的第二个结论，感觉应当放到最后)

Thirdly, the follow-up study is unconvincing for several reasons. The speaker does not provide evidence that the infants studied were randomly chosen, it is possible that the researchers chose the infants with a sign of distress particularly despite of other normal infants. Even if these twenty five infants are representative, the researchers only included such types of stimuli as an unusual odor and a tape recording of unknown voice ignoring the other possible stimuli. Moreover, sign of mild distress does not indicate the shyness of a baby, so the assumption of shyness during infancy is unfounded. (这也是反驳调查的，感觉可以和前面的并在一起）

In sum, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it, the speaker must provide clear evidence that increased level of a mother's production of melatonin can cause her baby to be shy, and that shyness during infancy continues into later life. To better evaluate the argument we would need more information about the study for its confirmation.
几乎没有提到某素的谬误

这篇A的逻辑应该是
（1）母亲秋天分泌某素+孩子出生在秋天+调查显示孩子表现轻微紧张=》某素使孩子轻微紧张=》某素使孩子shy 这里的潜台词有几个 A调查有权威性 B某素能传给孩子 C某素使孩子轻微紧张而非别的原因 D轻微紧张等于shy  那我们就应该反驳这几个潜台词的不确定性
（2）长大的孩子认为自己shy=》某素作用延续

感觉lz的文章大概的谬误都找出来，不过对于逻辑把握不清楚，反驳起来很乱。