argument217【snickers小组】提纲作业帖

zhangwanyingUID: 2775533

周三 12月8日

argument 217
TOPIC: ARGUMENT217 - The following appeared in a brochure promoting the purchase of local franchises for a national chain of gyms.

"Now is the time to invest in a Power-Lift Gym franchise so that you can profit from opening one of our gyms in your town. Consider the current trends: Power-Lift Gyms are already popular among customers in 500 locations, and national surveys indicate increasing concern with weight loss and physical fitness. Furthermore, last year's sales of books and magazines on personal health totaled more than $50 million, and purchases of home exercise equipment almost doubled. Investing now in a Power-Lift Gym franchise will guarantee a quick profit."

zcsdtcUID: 2875047

宣称现在是invest Power-Lift Gym 的好机会（plg）。因为，plg在500个地区都受欢迎，全国调查显示人们关心减肥和体育锻炼。而且，去年关于健康的书卖出了5千万元，家庭锻炼设备的销售量也翻番了。

质疑：在500个地区受欢迎，不代表在所有地方都受欢迎。
全国的调查不是适用于每一个地区的，只是代表了一个趋势潮流。
书籍卖出的多不代表大家真的会去锻炼，可能是学习理论，或者是其他的保持健康的方法，比如介绍健康饮食，健康的生活习惯，心理调节。
家庭的健身用品销售增多，不说明去健身馆的人会增多，相反，可能会减少，因为大家趋向在家中健身。

zhangwanyingUID: 2775533

The following appeared in a brochure promoting the purchase of local franchises（特许经营权） for a national chain of gyms.

"Now is the time to invest in a Power-Lift Gym franchise so that you can profit from opening one of our gyms in your town. Consider the current trends: Power-Lift Gyms are already popular among customers in 500 locations, and national surveys indicate increasing concern with weight loss and physical fitness. Furthermore, last year's sales of books and magazines on personal health totaled more than $50 million, and purchases of home exercise equipment almost doubled. Investing now in a Power-Lift Gym franchise will guarantee a quick profit."

（1）作者只是提到are already popular among customers in 500 lacations, 却没有提到这500个健身馆的经营情况和趋势operating status，或者是否有可能店面的数量已经过剩了oversupply，投资价值不大。
（2）作者还提出了一些论据来支持现在健身日益流行的观点。所谓的national survey 是否调查了足够多的对象，是不是随机选取的，是不是broader enough，包含了各个年龄层，不同的地域？并且这个总体的情况不一定适合可能开健身房的这个地区。
（3）有关健康书籍的销售额也没有说服力，没有一个标准或者说和其他类书籍的比对来说明这种书籍的热销，并且更加不能肯定这些书籍和健身有关，可能是有关健康饮食方面的书。再者，看书的人不一定回去健身房锻炼，可能大部分会采取户外运动的方式。还有, 增加的室内器材销售量不能说明人门去健身房锻炼的意愿，或者有可能更多的人are prone to exercise indoors(adv).

daniexiaUID: 2403405

>> The mere fact that Power-LIft Gyms (PLG) are popular among customers in 500 locations and the national surveys that indicate increasing concern with weight loss and physical fitness lend no strong support to the conclusion that it is also profitable in every towns.
>> People who are interested in weight loss and physical fitness doesn't mean that they are also interested in PLG.
>> Since I know nothing about the average condition of the sales of books and magazines on personal health and home exercise equipment, last year's amount of sales is not sufficient to be considerable.
>> Since the cost of PLG is known, it is unwarranted to conclude that it will ensure a quick profit.
>> The already popular situation just gives us negative evidence for new investors to be profitable.