Agrument186 第一篇完整文

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT186 - The following is a recommendation from the director of personnel to the president of Professional Printing Company.

"In a recent telephone survey of automobile factory workers, older employees were less likely to report that having a supervisor present increases their productivity. Among workers aged 18 to 29, 27 percent said that they are more productive in the presence of their immediate supervisor, compared to 12 percent for those aged 30 or over, and only 8 percent for those aged 50 or over. Clearly, if our printing company hires mainly older employees, we will increase productivity and save money because of the reduced need for supervisors."
WORDS: 416          TIME: 01:22:07T-T          DATE: 2010/12/29 16:24:57

This recommendation seems, at first glance, perspicuous and valid. However, the conclusion that hiring mainly older employees can increase productivity and save money may mask other, potentially more significant, elements necessary to evaluate the situation.

Little information about the telephone survey, an indispensable sustain for the argument, is provided by the director. Were the questions leading, such as  "do you think you are more productive in the presence of a supervisor due to your inexperience "? If so, people may just respond with the expect answer. Therefore the trustworthiness of the survey would be debilitated.  Despites its reliability, one should also take the generality of the survey into consideration.  If the survey is just limited to a particular factory or a few workers of several particular supervisors, then the factory or supervisors may contribute to the survey result. Hence, the generalization drawn might not apply to most workers. Even if the survey was broader, does it reflect the demographic feathers of the worker group, or was it bound in certain ways? Factors like these may undermine the reliability and generality of the survey results.

Even if the survey results are cogent, this recommendation would be weaken by failing to consider alternative explanations for the survey results. Such alternatives may include the fact that young workers prefer to be hamble and therefore are more conducive to speaking highly of their supervisor, while the older employees may have already accustomed to the presence of supervisors, therefore the enhancement of productivity is less impressing. The differences of productivity between young and older employees should also be considered. There is no information showing that an older employee is more productive than the young. The whole recommendation could be more persuadable, if detailed productivity data of young and older employees with and without supervisors are provided.

The director also fails to consider the inherent difference between automobile and printing company. It is possible that workers should pay more attention and be more likely to suffer in a printing company so that all employees have similar productivity and supervisors are essential. In addition, fewer supervisors may not mean more money saved. It is reasonable for older workers to ask higher salary for their experience.

The recommendation could provide important information and potencially generate profits. However, before any final decisions are made about the printing company, a more conprehensive analysis of  all alternatives is essential. A specious confidence based only upon one aspect of information may turn out into not profit but deficit.

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