ARGU提纲2.5

cousonUID: 2389644

ARGU提纲2.5
140,57,152,36,137,187,97,217,147,165

140.植物学教授Thomas的去留
The following appeared in a report of the Committee on Faculty Promotions and Salaries at Elm City University.
"During her 17 years as a professor of botany, Professor Thomas has proved herself to be well worth her annual salary of $50,000. Her classes are among the largest at the university, demonstrating her popularity among students. Moreover, the money she has brought to the university in research grants has exceeded her salary in each of the last two years. Therefore, in consideration of Professor Thomas' demonstrated teaching and research abilities, we recommend that she receive a $10,000 raise and a promotion to Department Chairperson; without such a raise and promotion, we fear that Professor Thomas will leave Elm City University for another college."
在Thomas教授作为植物学教授的17年里，她证明了自己确实是值50000元年薪的。她的班级是本校最大的班级之一，这说明她在学生中间的受欢迎度。而且，她给学校带来的研究捐助在过去两年中都超过了她的年薪。因此，鉴于Thomas教授已被证实的教学和研究能力，我们建议将她的年薪增加10000元，并提升为系主任；如果没有这些加薪和提升，我们担心Thomas教授将会离开Elm City大学到别的学校就职。
--------逻辑链--------
Have biggest class -> 最popular
L2Y,带来了RG超度了salary
TA和RA都证实, +1Wsalary, 升职, 否则会走
--------提纲--------
1．证据不足说明T教授的教学能力好
     a)班级最大不说明受欢迎,更不能说明教学能力好
2．证据不足说明T教授的研究能力好
     a)标准有问题, 论文有没有?
     b)如果标准是拉赞助, 那么以后她还能拉这么多吗?
3．作者片面片面认为T教授选择学校仅仅依靠sal和升职
     a)研究条件, 学术氛围, 自身在EC大学做的学术积累
     b)家庭, 配偶的工作地点
     c)该城市环境, 等等

57.Zorba预防溃疡复发
The following appeared in a newsletter on nutrition and health.
"Although the multimineral Zorba pill was designed as a simple dietary supplement, a study of first-time ulcer patients who took Zorba suggests that Zorba actually helps prevent ulcers. The study showed that only 25 percent of those ulcer patients who took Zorba under a doctor's direction developed new ulcers, compared to a 75 percent recurrence rate among ulcer patients who did not take Zorba. Clearly, then, Zorba will be highly effective in preventing recurrent ulcers and if health experts inform the general public of this fact, many first-time ulcers can be prevented as well."
尽管含多种矿物质的Zorba药片被设计成用作单纯的营养补充药，对于使用了Zorba的溃疡初患者的研究发现Zorba可以帮助预防溃疡。研究表明在医生的指导下服用Zorba的患者中只有25%得了新的溃疡，相比之下，那些没有服用Zorba的溃疡患者的复发率为75％。显然，Zorba在预防溃疡复发方面有很积极的效果，如果健康专家把这一事实公诸于众，很多初次发生的溃疡也同样可以得到预防。
--------逻辑线--------
FT ulcer(zor), 25%ulcer 复发
Ulcer(no zor), 75%ulcer 复发
很多FT ulcer 也可以避免
--------提纲--------
1．调查样品问题
     a)人数
     b)Ulcer的程度
     c)生活习惯
2．防复发的其他原因(医生的其他治疗)
     a)回复有问题, 回复是否有代表性, 不然25,75就没有意义
     b)生活习惯的改变(饮食, 生活习惯, 生活节奏)
3.扩大范围,
     a)没有任何关于zor可以防FT ulcer
     b)能防ulcer复发, 也不一定能防FT ulcer

152.Tria岛海岸沙滩的侵蚀
The following is a letter to the head of the tourism bureau on the island of Tria.
"Erosion of beach sand along the shores of Tria Island is a serious threat to our island and our tourist industry. In order to stop the erosion, we should charge people for using the beaches. Although this solution may annoy a few tourists in the short term, it will reduce the number of people using the beaches and will raise money for replenishing the sand. Replenishing the sand, as was done to protect buildings on the nearby island of Batia, will help protect buildings along our shores, thereby reducing these buildings' risk of additional damage from severe storms. And since the areas along the shore will be more attractive as a result, the beaches will be preserved and the area's tourist industry will improve over the long term."
Tria岛海岸沙滩的侵蚀对于我们岛和我们的旅游业是个严重的威胁。为阻止侵蚀，我们应该对使用海滩的人收费。尽管这一解决方案会在短期内触怒少量游客，它将会减少使用海滩的人数并增加补充沙子的资金。象临近的Batia岛一样补充沙子将会有助于对我们沿岸建筑的保护，从而减少这些房屋在大风暴中受损的危险。并且由于这会导致沿岸地区更具吸引力，海滩将会受到保护，本地区的旅游业将会在长远得到发展。
--------逻辑线--------
收费(减少人,增加沙金),
像B岛一样补充沙子,会保护building(大风暴),
长久保护海岸, ->长久发展旅游业
--------提纲--------
1．证据不足以证明沙滩需要replenish和房子需要protect
     a)沙滩侵蚀的具体情况没有说
     b)房子具体的情况也没有说
2．证据不足以证明B岛收费来沙子在T岛是可行的
     a)填沙子就可以让房子稳固了?T岛的都是建在岩石上,很稳固
     b)收费的钱足够填沙子了吗?不会引起大部分人的不满?
3．证据不足以证明我们的旅游业会因为收益
     a)我们旅游不只靠这篇沙滩,
     b)我们很少经历暴风雨

36.著名人类学家Field博士的错误论断
The following appeared in an article written by Dr. Karp, an anthropologist.
"Twenty years ago Dr. Field, a noted anthropologist, visited the island of Tertia and concluded from his observations that children in Tertia were reared by an entire village rather than by their own biological parents. However, my recent interviews with children living in the group of islands that includes Tertia show that these children spend much more time talking about their biological parents than about other adults in the village. This research proves that Dr. Field's conclusion about Tertian village culture is false, and thus that the observation-centered approach to studying cultures is invalid. Because they are using the interview-centered method, my team of graduate students working in Tertia will establish a much more accurate understanding of child-rearing traditions there and in other island cultures."
20年前著名人类学家Field博士访问了Tertia岛，并从他的观察得出结论：Tertia的儿童是由整个村庄的人抚养长大的而不是由他们的双亲。然而，我最近对包含Tertia的一组岛屿上生活的儿童的采访显示，这些儿童的谈话中谈到他们双亲的时间要远多于谈到村庄中其他成年人的时间。这个研究证实了Field博士关于Tertia村庄文化的结论是错误的，因而这种以观察为中心的研究文化的方法是无效的。由于我在Tertia工作的研究生们所用的是以采访为中心的方式，他们将对那里以及其他岛屿文化的儿童抚养传统建立精确的多的了解。
-------逻辑链-------
20YA, T岛小孩reared by全村人
Recent interview: 谈父母更多, -> 观察没有效,采访更有效
-------提纲-------
使之成立的条件
1．证据不足以说明采访的结论是正确的
     a)Interview的数量
     b)谈父母更多不代表就是父母抚养
2．证据不足以说明观察法是错误
     a)不能非此即彼,
     b)二十年间, 抚养样式也可能会变

137.Mason市的河流娱乐
The following appeared in an editorial in the Mason City newspaper.
"At present, Mason City residents seldom use the nearby Mason River for any kind of recreational activity, even though surveys of the region's residents consistently rank water sports (swimming, fishing, and boating) as a favorite form of recreation. Since there have been complaints about the quality of the water in the river, residents must be avoiding the river because they think that it is not clean enough. But that situation is about to change: the agency responsible for rivers in our region has announced plans to clean up Mason River. Therefore, recreational use of the river is likely to increase, so the Mason City council will need to increase its budget for improvements to the publicly owned lands along the Mason River."
当前，Mason市很少利用附近的Mason河来进行娱乐活动，尽管对该地区居民的几次调查一直指出他们把水上运动（游泳、垂钓和划船）作为他们最喜欢的娱乐形式。由于曾经存在对于这条河水质的投诉，居民一定是因为他们认为河水不够干净才不在这里活动。但这种情况就会改变了：我们地区负责河流管理的部门公布了澄清Mason河的计划。因此，河流的娱乐用途很可能将会增加，因而Mason市的市委有必要增加用于改善Mason河沿岸公共土地的预算。
--------逻辑线--------
少到mason, 尽管喜欢(swim, fish, boat)
Once: complaint(mason)->水质差不干净
Mason将被clean,->多到mason, 改善岸边publicly owned lands
--------提纲--------
1．居民不是因为水质差而不去mason
2．没有必要改善岸边
     a)情况很好, 不需修复
     b)需求也能满足,不需扩建
     c)现在预算也够
3．现在为时过早
     a)Clean计划也要一段时间才有效果


187.鱼中omega-3脂肪酸和抑郁症的联系
The following appeared as part of an article in a health magazine.
"A new discovery warrants a drastic change in the diets of people living in the United States. Two scientists have recently suggested that omega -3 fatty acids (found in some fish and fish oils) play a key role in mental health. Our ancestors, who ate less saturated fat and more polyunsaturated fat, including omega -3 fatty acids, were much less likely to suffer from depression than we are today. Moreover, modern societies — such as those in Japan and Taiwan — that consume large quantities of fish report depression rates lower than that in the United States. Given this link between omega -3 fatty acids and depression, it is important for all people in the United States to increase their consumption of fish in order to prevent depression."
一项新发现表明生活在美国的居民饮食将会发生显著变化。两名学者最近指出omega-3脂肪酸（它在一些鱼类以及鱼油中被发现）在精神健康方面有很重要的作用。我们的祖先食用更少的饱和脂肪和更多的多重不饱和脂肪，包括omega-3脂肪酸，他们患抑郁症的可能性比我们现在要低很多。而且，食用大量鱼类的现代社会--比如象日本和台湾那样的社会--抑郁症的上报率比在美国要低。基于以上omega-3脂肪酸和抑郁症的联系，让所有的美国人增加鱼类的食用量以防止抑郁症是很重要的。
--------逻辑线--------
O3(鱼,鱼油)对mental health有帮助
古人更多不饱和, 抑郁少
日本台湾(吃鱼多), report抑郁少
--------提纲--------
1．证据不足证明O3能够减少depress
     a)没有直接的证据证明
     b)古人不是因为多吃不饱和预防depress, 现代人也有吃很多不饱和的还是depress
2．证据不足证明吃鱼能够减少depress
     a)日本台湾上报的少
     b)不是所有题本台湾吃的鱼都有O3,
     c)其他食物
3．日本,台湾出现的情况不一定能出现在美国上
     a)生活压力不同,
     b)还是有很多饱和摄入怎么办?


97.KICK电视台的体育类节目
The following appeared in a memo from the manager of television station KICK.
"A nationwide survey reveals that a sizeable majority of men would like to see additional sports programs on television. After television station WACK increased its sports broadcasts, its share of the television audience in its viewing area almost doubled. To gain a larger audience share in our area, and thus increase company profits, KICK should also revise its broadcast schedule to include more sports coverage."
一项全国性调查发现，大多数的男性希望在电视上看到更多的体育节目。在WACK电视台增加了体育节目后，在其收视范围内的收视率几乎增加了一倍。为在本地区获得更高收视率，并从而增加公司利润，KICK也应该修改其播出计划来播放更多的体育节目。
--------逻辑线--------
Nation study: more man like sports
W增加sports, share*2
为+share->+profit, K也应该增加sports
--------提纲--------
1．全国调查的准确性?
     a)调查范围,
     b)选项等
2．WACK的share增加不是因为sports
     a)他们男人比例多
     b)原来没有的体育台
     c)其他节目贡献的share
3．K和W不一样
     a)我们男人不多
     b)我们已经有不少体育节目
     c)提高收拾率也不一定挣钱, 广告不一定会因此增加, 巨额转播费

cousonUID: 2389644

217.Power-Lift Gym特许权
The following appeared in a brochure promoting the purchase of local franchises for a national chain of gyms.
"Now is the time to invest in a Power-Lift Gym franchise so that you can profit from opening one of our gyms in your town. Consider the current trends: Power-Lift Gyms are already popular among customers in 500 locations, and national surveys indicate increasing concern with weight loss and physical fitness. Furthermore, last year's sales of books and magazines on personal health totaled more than $50 million, and purchases of home exercise equipment almost doubled. Investing now in a Power-Lift Gym franchise will guarantee a quick profit."
现在是投资于Power-Lift Gym特许权的良好时机从而你可以在你们城市开设一家体育馆。考虑一下当前的潮流：Power-Lift
Gym已经在500个地点的消费者中相当流行，全国调查表明对于减肥和健身的关注越来越多。而且，去年关于个人健康的书籍和杂志销售总额超过了5千万元，家庭健身器具的购买量几乎翻了一番。现在投资Power-Lift Gym特许权将保证快速致富。
--------逻辑线--------
Gym在500地流行,
Nation study: 更多人减肥,健身
LY, HB和HM的sales 5000W+, HXE*2
--------提纲--------
1．        全国调查的准确性
         a)        样本, 时间, 回复者占比的
         b)        HB和HM不能证明大家越来越关注
         c)        HXE*2代表去gym的需求下降啊
2．        本地情况要考虑
         a)        本地不一定有那个多关注健康的人
3．        开Gym挣钱吗?
         a)        500地受欢迎不代表每个地方都受欢迎
         b)        其他同业对手
         c)        成本,安装

147.Whirlwind公司的游戏销量
The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
尽管Whirlwind游戏公司的游戏销量在过去两年中下降了，最近一次对于电子游戏玩家的调查显示这种销售趋势可能会逆转。该调查询问游戏玩家对于一个游戏来说他们所认为的最重要特征是什么。根据调查结果，玩家倾向于那些需要最先进的电脑的，具有活灵活现图象的游戏。Whirlwind刚刚面向10－25岁的人群开展了大力的广告活动来推广若干此类游戏，10－25岁是最喜欢玩游戏的年龄层。这说明Whirlwind公司的游戏销量将会在未来几个月中猛增。
--------逻辑链--------
L2Y, WW sales下降
Recent survey: lifelike graphic(需要up-to-date PC)
想10-25推几款这类游戏(10-25最爱玩游戏)
WW sales会增加
--------提纲--------
1.        调查不一定有效
         a)        样品,回复率
         b)        选项, 其他因素
2.        建议不一定可行
         a)        10-25不一定喜欢lifelike graphic(需要up-to-date PC)
         b)        10-25不一定买得起
3.        其他原因导致sales下降
         a)        Sales团队,
         b)        其他公司
         c)        整体市场低迷

165.罐头质量问题
The following appeared in a business magazine.
"As a result of numerous consumer complaints of dizziness and nausea, Promofoods requested that eight million cans of tuna be returned for testing last year. Promofoods concluded that the cans did not, after all, contain chemicals that posed a health risk. This conclusion is based on the fact that the chemists from Promofoods tested samples of the recalled cans and found that, of the eight chemicals most commonly blamed for causing symptoms of dizziness and nausea, five were not found in any of the tested cans. The chemists did find that the three remaining suspected chemicals are naturally found in all other kinds of canned foods."
去年由于有大量消费者投诉说产生了眩晕和恶心，Promofoods要求800万罐金枪鱼回收检测。Promofoods下结论说这些罐头根本不含任何有健康危害的化学物质。这一结论基于这样的事实，即Promofoods的化学家测试了回收的罐头样本，并发现8种最常见的导致眩晕和恶心症状的化学物质中，有五种都没有在任何被测试的罐头中被发现。化学家确实发现剩下三种受怀疑的化学物质在所有其他罐头食品中都存在。
--------逻辑链--------
LY, many 投诉(D&N), P要求召回800w tuna
P检查5中没有发现,
剩下3中其他关头也有
--------提纲--------
1.        样品不一定代表所有
         a)        样品的比率,
         b)        800W的量有没有代表性
2.        其他罐头食物也有不能代表他就是安全的
         a)        剂量怎么样?
3.        其他导致D&N的物质
         a)        过期, 其他物质