36套里面的一个单选逻辑题，求解释~~~

LeeTsanUID: 2787212

Like most other coastal towns in Norway, the town of Stavanger was quiet and peaceful until the early 1960's, when it became Norway's center for offshore oil exploration. Between then and now, violent crime and vandalism in Stavanger have greatly increased. Stavanager's social problems probably resulted from the oil boom, since violent crime and vandalism have remained low in coastal towns in Norway that have had no oil boom.
Which of the following most accurately describes the method of reasoning employed in the argument?

(A) Arguing that a circumstance is not a precondition for a phenomenon on the grounds that the phenomenon sometimes occurs where the circumstance is not present

(B) Arguing that a circumstance is a cause of a phenomenon on the grounds that the phenomenon has not occurred where the circumstance is not present

(C) Arguing that a particular thing cannot have caused a phenomenon because that thing was not present before the phenomenon occurred

(D) Attempting to establish a claim by arguing that the denial of the claim is inconsistent with the observed facts

(E) Attempting to establish that certain circumstances that would have had to occur for a particular explanation to be correct could not have occurred

答案是E，我选的是B，我觉得文章的逻辑是没有oil boom的时候violent crime and vandalism have remained low，有了oil boom就增加了，所以把犯罪率增加归结为oil boom，不是正好对应B吗？circumstance指oil boom，phenomenon指犯罪率增加~~~另外E的虚拟语气读的我好纠结啊，求解释，谢谢！

苏梳眠UID: 2717864

本题属于争议题。但我的理解是：
Attempting to establish that certain circumstances that would have had to occur for a particular explanation to be correct could not have occurred.
为了某种特定解释的正确，必须发生的环境可以不发生。
我觉得可以从，Stavanager's social problems probably resulted from the oil boom,这句中的probably来理解。那么说明该解释的不确定性，是否就说明其他状况的可能性，也即oil boom即使不发生，可能这些状况也会发生。
如果在B中加入一个possible cause个人觉得更加妥当。

LeeTsanUID: 2787212

2# 苏梳眠 我再想想~谢版主~

sophiaqustUID: 3017453

我也觉得选B呃，再仔细看看斑竹的分析

不辣的皮特blueUID: 3384428

此题E的题目逻辑层次好复杂啊

AbC11234567UID: 3435188

为什么我看这句话的感觉它的意思是，为了某种特定解释的正确，可以不发生的事情一定要发生。
Attempting to establish that certain circumstances that would have had to occur for a particular explanation to be correct could not have occurred.:dizzy:

xiaoqijieUID: 3590451

这道题目陈虎平在新编的36套已经改了答案了，应该选B

RevrieRiverUID: 3470313

xiaoqijie 发表于 2015-3-9 10:20
这道题目陈虎平在新编的36套已经改了答案了，应该选B

看来以前的编者是大SB

lillian01UID: 3644143

这道题目是选择B，陈老师上课讲过。
是文章中存在相关性，所以答案选择相关性的分析方法。
B的翻译是主张一种环境导致一种现象的原因，其依据是该现象并没有发生于该环境不存在的地方。