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在某宝上花了点钱找人批改,被评价“Your statements are heavily dependent on commonly used and abused templates. Strive for originality.” 肿么办?最可怕的是我写的时候也没有刻意想用模板。
我发过去的文章如下
The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
The consult investment firm gives a seemingly reasonable prediction on the increasing demand for heating oil and recommendation recommends on investing in Consolidated Industries, a home heating oil retail-related business. However, some unwarranted certain assumptions alluded in this deduction need to be thoroughly discussed and probably undermine before the validity of this suggestion can be established.
First of all, the argument is based on an optimistic belief that oil would remain dominant in the heating market for in the future. Believing in the dominance of heating oil, the firm considers the need of heating as the demand of heating oil. Though oil is has been traditionally used as the major fuel for heating, it is still an uncertainty whether or not it would be superseded by other sources, like electricity, which has been used for update in southern cities in China during the 2000s. When Once an alternative prevails in the market, the consumption of heating oil faces a potential withdrawal decline, and the revenue of expected investment profit in heating oil retain company might evaporate as well.
To stress the need of for heating, it assumes is assumed that there is no decrease in cold days. Provided that there would be 90 days with below-normal temperatures for recent in the coming years, it asserts this trend positively contributes to an ascending increasing demand for heating oil, neglecting to verify compare the recent trend with comparison with historical statistics. For example, the northeastern America perhaps had suffered 95 or even more days of frigid temperature before the last heating season. Without ruling out the other possible interpretations of the climate tendency, the support to the final conclusion will be weakened becomes weak.
Additionally, it is also implies implied that new homes undoubtedly indicate new clients of heating oil. As it announces, many Many newly built houses, are connected with population growth, and this would be another is also a reason for the increased use of heating oil utilization. Whereas this This projection, however, is easily voided by outer forces, such as the economic crisis in 2008. Despite the population a growth in population, plenty of pretty new houses were abandoned in such situation. Therefore, this assumption lacks stability.
Moreover, the assumption that the profit of Consolidated Industries is positively related to the demand of for heating oil is beneath the investment recommendation. While Consolidated Industries has its home heating oil retail shops, its market shares and operating rate is operational rhythm are unreported, illustrating uncontrollable risks in investment pay-off. In other words, extra evidences to substantiate the link are required for heartening convincing investors.
Feeble assumptions on the unchanged heating oil predominance, constant or more cold days, increasing newly-house consumers newly-built houses, and demand-contributed profit of Consolidated Industries debase the soundness of this recommendation. Investors should pay adequate cautions exercise extreme caution when making decisions.
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