Yaqi的GRE写作练习贴AW

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第一篇 题号60
60.The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for client.

“Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

我的写作

The author tries to recommend a client to invest in Consolidated Industries by concluding that there will be an increased demand for heating oil. To justify this prediction the author cites the following facts about heating oil usage in the northeastern United States: (1) the region is typically cold and the traditional fuel for heating there is heating oil (2) there are several more years of below-normal temperatures in the region based on climate forecasters' statement (3) many new homes are being built because of recent population growth. Close scrutiny of each of these facts, however, reveals that none of them lend credible support to his or her conclusion, not to speak of the taken-for-granted inference that more consumption of heating oil would for sure be rewarding to investors.

The first assumptions that needs to be clarified is that oil is ‘traditionally’ used in this area, and this situation will remain forever, which is obviously not sure. There is possibility that other ways of heating are being used, for example, electronic heating and geothermal heating. In this case, growing demand for heating doesn’t necessarily predict more utilize of heating oil. Only when oil is the only funeral used for heating now and forever, can the author conclude that increased consumption for heating requires more heating oil.

Even assuming that heating oil will not be replaced, the way that the author demonstrates more application of oil is fallacious.

Firstly there is an assumption that ‘climate forecasters’ are reliable, and whatever they report is scientific, yet this is not confirmed, climate forecasters can be bought by business groups. Even when they are reliable, the author needs to prove that increasing heating oil is the only way for people to stand years’ of winter with below-normal temperatures. There is possibility that people resist coldness by painting their walls with insulation material, therefore they don’t need more heating oil to keep warm.

Secondly, the author supposes that new homes being built in the area and population growth will surely contribute to more demand of oil heating. However the newly built houses can be empty and no one is actually moving in. Furthermore, population growth can either mean more new-born babies or incremental immigrant people. Incremental immigrant people will need to move to the newly built houses equipped with heating, while new-born babies can live with their parents who may not need a new house.

After looking into the argument that the employment of oil heating will increase, which is rife with holes and assumptions, let’s see if increased demand for heating oil means that investing Consolidated Industries will be profitable. Only when Consolidated Industries makes stable profits for its investors, and is competitive among all the business who do retail sale of home heating oil in the northeastern United States, can the suggestion be responsible enough. Therefore a detailed report of the company’s potential improvement and profit growth is needed.

In sum, the recommendation depends on a series of poor assumptions and is therefore unpersuasive.

514字，写了两个小时。总觉得哪里不对劲，请大家多多指教！