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Argument 4 麻烦大家指导下~
The following appeared in a letter from a homeowner to a friend.
Of the two leading real estate firms in our town—Adams Realty and Fitch Realty—Adams Realty is clearly superior. Adams has 40 real estate agents; in contrast, Fitch has 25, many of whom work only part-time. Moreover, Adams' revenue last year was twice as high as that of Fitch and included home sales that averaged $168,000, compared to Fitch's $144,000. Homes listed with Adams sell faster as well: ten years ago I listed my home with Fitch, and it took more than four months to sell; last year, when I sold another home, I listed it with Adams, and it took only one month. Thus, if you want to sell your home quickly and at a good price, you should use Adams Realty.
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
提纲:1.人多不代表人员的工作效率高,人员的素质也是影响因素。
2.收入不代表利润,而且不知道未来趋势
3.时间对比有问题
4.除了这两家公司可能还要别的公司更好
In this argument, the arguer concludes that it is better to choose Adam Realty as estate firm which is one of the two leading real estate firms in their town than the other estate firm--Fitch Realty. To strengthen this conclusion, the arguer provides a statistics about both the number of estate agents and revenue of Adam Realty is bigger than Fitch Realty. The arguer also cites a evidence of his personal experience indicating that the superiority of Adam Realty. At first glance, the argument might be somehow reasonable, but close scrutiny reveals that is contains several unconvincing assumptions and is therefore unpersuasive.
First of all, the argument claims that the number of estate agents is greater in Adams, and automatically assumes that Adam is better than Fitch. The arguer's implication is that the one who has more agents will be superior. However the might not be the case. The arguer overlooks the difference of the two firms. Perhaps some agents are not work. Or perhaps the agents work one day and rest two day while the agents in Fitch work from day to night. And maybe the efficiency of Adams agents is very low and therefore it needs more people.Withouting ruling out such possibilities, I cannot accept the arguer's point.
Second, the arguer unfairly indicates that Adams will keep the trend that it will have more revenues during the next few years.But,there could be many other factors. Contingencies such as market changes,competition,material and labor costs, legislative moves ,and the national and international economic cycle can all lead to the changing of its revenue. In addition, more revenue does not stand more profit.
Third, the arguers assumes that Adams sells quicker than Fitch with the assumption that he sold home
listed in Fitch ten years ago is slower than the sell listed in Adams last year. Apparently the arguer fails to take the change into consideration. And they are not comparable since they are not during the same time. Thus the conclusion is unreasonable.
Finally, even I concede that Adams is superior, the arguer draws too hastily that his friend should choose Adams. This assumption presents a false dilemma, by imposing on either Adams or Fitch.However,there may be some better choose. For example, there may be a smaller company but does really a perfect work in selling home. Without thinking about these alternatives, we cannot accept the arguer's recommendation.
To sum up, the arguer's conclusion about his friend should choose Adams to sell his home is not well supported as it stands. To bolster it ,the author must provide more information, such as other estate firms in the town and
the recent sells of both firms at the same time. |
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