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郁金香泡沫
Now, when I mention the terms “boom” and “bust”, what does that bring to mind?
The dot com crash of the 90s
The boom in the late 1990s when all those new internet companies sprang out and were then sold for huge amounts of money. Then the bust around 2000, … 2001 when many of these same internet companies went out of business. Of course, booms are always followed by busts. We’ve certainly seen times when local economies expanded rapidly for a while and then went back to a normal pace of growth. But, there’s a type of rapid expansion, what might be called the hysterical or irrational boom that pretty much always leads to a bust. People often create and intensified a boom when they’re carried away by some new industry that seems like it’ll make them lots of money fast. You’d think that by the nineties, people would have learned from the past. If they did, well, look at the tulips.
Tulips, you mean, the flower?
Exactly, for instance, do you have any idea where tulips are from? Originally I mean.
Well, the Netherlands, right?
That was most people think, but no, they’re not native to the Netherlands, or even Europe. Tulips actually hail from an area the Chinese call the celestial mountains in central Asia, a very remote mountainous region.
It was Turkish nomads who first discovered tulips and spread them slowly westward. Around 16 centuries, Europe was travelling to Istanbul and Turkey as merchants and diplomats. And the Turks often gave the Europeans tulip bulbs as gifts which they would carry home with them. For European, tulips were totally unheard of, uh… a great novelty. The first bulb to show up in the Netherlands, the merchant who received them roasted and ate them, they thought they were kind of union. It turns out, the Netherland was an ideal country for growing tulips. It had the right kind of sandy soil for one thing, but also, it was a wealthy nation with a growing economy, willing to spend lots of money on new exotic things. Plus, the Dutch had a history of gardening. Wealthy people would compete, spending enormous amounts of money to buy the rarest flowers for their gardens. Soon, tulips were beginning to show up in different colors as growers tried to breed them specifically for colors which would make them even more valuable. But they were never completely sure what they would get. Some of the most priced tulips were white with purple streaks, or red with the yellow streaks on the pedals, even a dark purple tulip that was very much priced. What happened then was a craze for these specialized tulips. We called that craze ‘tulip-mania’.
So, here we’ve got all conditions for an irrational boom. A prospering economy, so more people has more disposable income, money to spend on luxuries, but they weren’t experienced at investing their new wealth. Then along comes a thrilling new commodity. Sure the first specimens were just plain ordinary tulips, but they can be bred into some extraordinary variations, like the dark purple tulips, and finally, you have an unregulated marketplace. No government constrains, where prices can explode. And explode they did, starting in the 1630s. there was always much more demands for tulips than supply. Tulips didn’t bloom frequently like roses, tulips bloomed once in the early spring, and that was it for the year. Eventually, specially-breed multi-colored tulips became so valuable, well, according to records, one tulip bulb was worth 24 tons of wheat, or a thousand pounds of cheese. One particular tulip bulb was sold and exchanged for a small ship. In another word, tulips were literally worth their weight in gold.
As demand grew, people began selling the promissory notes guaranteeing the future delivery of priced tulip bulbs. The buyers of the pieces of papers would resell the notes at marked up prices. These promissory notes kept changing hands from buyer to buyer until the tulip was ready for delivery. But it was all pure speculation as I said, there was no way to know if the bulb was really going to produce the variety, the color that was promised. But that didn’t matter to the owner of the note. The owner only cared about having that piece of paper so it could be treated later at a profit. And people were borrowing mortgaging their homes in many cases to obtain those piece of paper. Because they were sure they’d found an easy way to make money.
So now, you’ve got all the ingredients for a huge bust, and bust it did, when one cold February morning in 1637, a group of bulb traders got together and discovered that suddenly there were no bidders. Nobody wanted to buy, panic spread like wild fire and the tulip market collapsed totally.
TPO精听,断续听了三天才听写完,太无奈了,时间伤不起... |
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