Argument57 请多指教！

caleUID: 150437

57The following appeared in a newsletter on nutrition and health.

"Although the multimineral Zorba pill was designed as a simple dietary supplement, a study of first-time ulcer patients who took Zorba suggests that Zorba actually helps prevent ulcers. The study showed that only 25 percent of those ulcer patients who took Zorba under a doctor's direction developed new ulcers, compared to a 75 percent recurrence rate among ulcer patients who did not take Zorba. Clearly, then, Zorba will be highly effective in preventing recurrent ulcers and if health experts inform the general public of this fact, many first-time ulcers can be prevented as well."  

In this argument, the author concludes that Zorbra will be effective in preventing recurrent ulcers and even first-time ulcers. To support the argument, he or he provides a study of first-time ulcer patient. Though it is seemingly convincing, it suffers several fallacies.

First of all, in evaluating the survey, one should first consider how the survey was conducted. If the two groups of people have different level of health and then have different immunity to ulcers, or there are more youth in one group and more old people in the other, the result of the survey will be invalid. One should also consider how broad the survey is, since the author makes a claim about all the people, people sampled in this survey should be representative enough. However, no evidence available can prove the broadness of the survey. Therefore, it is possible that the survey was limited only to a few people; in that case, the result might only be valid to those particular people rather than all of the people.

Second, even assume the reliability of the survey, the author also make a hasty generalization. Even if Zorba is helpful to prevent the recurrence of ulcers, it does not necessarily follows that the dietary supplement can help to prevent the first-time ulcers. The author fails to present any information concerning Zorba’s effectiveness in the prevention of the first-time ulcers. Therefore, it is extremely possible that the basis of Zorba’s ability to prevent the recurrence of ulcers is the immunity which the patient acquire from their first suffer to ulcers, however, it is of little use in prevention to the people who have never suffered ulcers.  

Finally, another premise in the argument that Zorba can prevent ulcer from recurrence lends little support to the argument, because its own credibility is doubtful. Further consideration about the survey reveals that there are still 25 percent of people who take Zorba develop ulcers again, and the data of 25 percents itself, is not exact enough to justify the function of preventing ulcers of Zorba. In addition, it is equally possible that after a certain period of time, the 75 percent of people who the author claims do not develop new ulcers suffer ulcers again, and then denies the author's conclusion. In those cases, the author’s argument will be open to question.

To sum up, the author fails to prove his claim that Zorba is effective in preventing ulcers, for the evidence cited is insufficient enough to substantiate what he claims. If the autor can manage to eliminate the logic fault mentioned above rule out other alternative possibilities, the argument will be well strengthened and more persuasive.

taftUID: 157217

In this argument, the author concludes that Zorbra will be effective in preventing recurrent ulcers and even first-time ulcers. To support the argument, he or he provides a study of first-time ulcer patient. Though it is seemingly convincing, it suffers several fallacies.(简洁，值得学习)

First of all, in evaluating the survey, one should first consider how the survey was conducted.(我觉得是how the sample was selected in the survey?) If the two groups of people have different level of health and then have different immunity to ulcers, or there are more youth in one group and more old people in the other, the result of the survey will be invalid. One should also consider how broad the survey is, since the author makes a claim about all the people, people sampled in this survey should be representative enough.(和前面说的是一样的，可以合并到一个句群而不用also) However, no evidence available can prove the broadness of the survey. Therefore, it is possible that the survey was limited only to a few people; in that case, the result might only be valid to those particular people rather than all of the people.

Second, even assume(assuming) the reliability of the survey, the author also make(s) a hasty generalization. Even if Zorba is helpful to prevent the recurrence of ulcers, it does not necessarily follows that the dietary supplement can help to prevent the first-time ulcers.(这个假设好像不清晰,dietary supplement 和Zorba是一个东西) The author fails to present any information concerning Zorba’s effectiveness in the prevention of the first-time ulcers. Therefore, it is extremely possible that the basis of Zorba’s ability to prevent the recurrence of ulcers is the immunity which the patient acquire from their first suffer to ulcers, however, it is of little use in prevention to the people who have never suffered ulcers. (在说无效，但不是很具体，假设不是很充分)

Finally, another premise in the argument that Zorba can prevent ulcer from recurrence lends little support to the argument, because its own credibility is doubtful. Further consideration about the survey reveals that there are still 25 percent of people who take Zorba develop ulcers again, and the data of 25 percents itself, is not exact enough to justify the function of preventing ulcers of Zorba. In addition, it is equally possible that after a certain period of time, the 75 percent of people who the author claims do not develop new ulcers suffer ulcers again, and then denies the author's conclusion. In those cases, the author’s argument will be open to question.

To sum up, the author fails to prove his claim that Zorba is effective in preventing ulcers, for the evidence cited is insufficient enough to substantiate what he claims. If the autor can manage to eliminate the logic fault mentioned above rule out other alternative possibilities, the argument will be well strengthened and more persuasive.
这种题本来比较难写，finally也还是在论survey 与effectiveness，好像多余了。
Argue没有怎么insightful，我也有同样的问题。你有时间也看看我的吧：）

caleUID: 150437

呵呵，好的，你一般什么时候法文章上来呀？