14年秋季Argument列提纲互改超级入口

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Argument目录已转移到6分经验帖2楼：
https://bbs.gter.net/forum.php?mo ... age=1#pid1778897480


Argument写作列提纲也非常重要。尽管题目要求各有不同，但是写作的基本思路是一致的，只是在具体措辞上需要进行调整。正如我在6分经验贴中强调的那样，

和老G截然不同的一点是，新G的argument并不是要求我们攻击论证的谬误，而是要我们提出各种可能性并讨论如何加强论证。也就是说，题目的前提不是这个论证是错的，而是这个论证需要更多的信息（检查各种假设、收集更多证据或回答各种问题）来决定是否合理。

按照Toulmin的模型，argument包括claim，data和warrant。我们拿到一道题，首先要将argument拆分为这三部分。




60) The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

这个argument有一个最终的结论或者claim-
we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries
由于这是一个并列结构，实际有两个claims
- demand of heating oil will icnrease
- investing in CI will be profitable/desirable  

再来看看有什么data或evidence
1) oil is the major fuel for heating (traditionally)
2) Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years
3) many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth

接下来我们来看连接data和claim之间的warrant，就是为什么证据能支持论断
1) 热油是主要的取暖燃料，因此天冷就需要更多的热油
2) 去年气温低，预测未来几年也一样，所以需要热油
3) 新房在建，人口增加，因此热油需求会增加

注意这里的第一个claim其实是第二个claim的data，因此另一个warrant是
4）热油需求增加，因此热油的零售商（主要业务卖热油-另一个data）值得投资

其实这里论证中的漏洞还是很多的而且也挺明显。找漏洞并不难，难的是-第一我们不能说这些是漏洞，而要根据题目的要求找出假设；第二是如何将不同的问题分类，组织到三个中间段去，形成一篇组织严谨的文章。我们可以尝试分三个方面来讨论
1.天气对热油需求的影响：假设了低于正常的气温就一定需要大量烧油、天气预报是准确的、天气在几年后还会这么冷
2. 人口、新房和替代能源对热油需求的影响：假设新房一定能建成不会烂尾、建成一定卖得出有人住、新房一定烧油而不用替代能源、新房不会用隔热材料保暖
3. 是否投资CI的其他因素：假设CI的零售业务是盈利的（热油成本不会涨）；假设CI的非主要业务没有亏本；假设CI的投资回报率高于其他可供选择的投资项目

这里的关键在于要将众多的假设进行分类，放到不同的中间段，保证中间段的讨论能够集中在一个大的领域内，句子之间能够连贯。
另外，尽管Argument的写作要求有好几种，但是思路的差别并不大，主要是在措辞上的调整。

比如
145) The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of a company that specializes in the delivery of heating oil.
Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season, that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we can safely predict that this region will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years.
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.

问的是需要问什么问题 其实找假设的答案可以调整一下，变为提出相关的问题
It is assumed that the residents in the region will not switch to alternative energy sources for heating
可改为
The questions we need to ask are: are alternative energy sources available for heating in the region and how expensive are they relateive to oil

而针对146
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.  

We need evidence about the availability of alternative energy sources for heating in the region


唯一需要区别对待的可能是 rival explanation的题型

165) Humans arrived in the Kaliko Islands about 7,000 years ago, and within 3,000 years most of the large mammal species that had lived in the forests of the Kaliko Islands were extinct. Previous archaeological findings have suggested that early humans generally relied on both fishing and hunting for food; since archaeologists have discovered numerous sites in the Kaliko Islands where the bones of fish were discarded, it is likely that the humans also hunted the mammals. Furthermore, researchers have uncovered simple tools, such as stone knives, that could be used for hunting. The only clear explanation is that humans caused the extinction of the various mammal species through excessive hunting.
Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.


以下是Argument列提纲的指引

1) 分析题目中的Argument，按照上面的范例，列出claim、data并解释连接claim和data的warrant。
2）根据题目的要求用汉语列出中间三段的重点以及描述要讨论的主要内容。  

以下是反馈提纲时回答的问题
1) 楼上所拆分的claim、data和warrant有没有遗漏，分析是否准确、完整，需要如何改进?
2) 楼上的提纲中将论述分作三个大点，是否合理，叙述的细节是否完整，有没有遗漏？

请点击楼下的具体题目链接参与列提纲和互改。

ClaretZUID: 3567572

这个Argument的指导太有用了！根据Toulmin的模型中对argument的claim，data和warrant三部分拆分，审题变得容易很多！谢谢王老师！

tesolchinaUID: 2191404

ClaretZ 发表于 2014-10-16 00:04
这个Argument的指导太有用了！根据Toulmin的模型中对argument的claim，data和warrant三部分拆分，审题变得容 ...

新加入Argument 51题  

lisa_CUID: 2678347

学习！给王老师大大点个赞！思路扩展很多，希望通过练习能领悟到一些~