Argument 55 sales of video game will rebound based on survey of player preferenc

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1 抄题

55. The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people ten to twenty-five years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

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2 列出argument的结论和主要证据
claim或结论：Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed.  It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months.

证据01 The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game.
证据02 According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers.   
证据03 Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people ten to twenty-five years old, the age-group most likely to play video games.

3 写第一段
TS (pt1, pt2, pt3): The author of the editorial predicts that the sales of Whirlwind video games will rebound after a two-year fall in the next few months, mainly citing a recent video game player survey, and mentioning new products of Whirlwind and the company’s player-centered advertising campaign. Although her argument seems logical and convincing at first glance, the reader needs to scrutinize more postulations within the reasoning line in order to determine whether to accept the prophecy or not.

4. 写出中间段的主题句（英语）用汉语解释主要讨论的点
中间第一段
ts (pt1): In the first place, the author assumes that the survey is scientifically and reasonably designed and will not mislead those participants. 其一，作者结论必须基于抽样方法合理，所得样本必须代表全体游戏玩家的前提下。如果，所抽取的玩家只限定于某一类型的游戏，比如第一人称射击游戏（First - Person Shooter Game），而不包含玩角色扮演游戏（Role-Playing Game）和即时战略游戏（ Real-Time Strategy Game）的人，那么调查结果有效性存疑，作者的结论不能成立。从文中给出的lifelike graphics 这个回应可以看出，受访者集中在第一人称射击游戏（First - Person Shooter Game）玩家范围的可能性较大，作者需要澄清事实。其二，只有当调查所涉问题不误导参与者的情况下，作者的结论才可能成立。倘若问题设计得不好，比如只列出了“画面逼真”、“音效震撼”等适用于第一人称射击游戏的选项，而忽略了诸如各兵种补充性强、历史还原度高等即时战略游戏的要素，或者剧情扣人心弦、怪物新奇有趣等角色扮演游戏的要素，那么玩家的选择范围受限，无法真实表达自己的喜好，因此调查结果就不能支持结论了。
中间第二段
ts (pt2): Next presupposition is that all the video game players have been equipped the latest computers, which are able to run the games of lifelike graphics. 当所有玩家都拥有最新型号的、可以带动高画质游戏的电脑，则一旦符合该特点的新游戏一上市，玩家就有很可能去买来玩，那么Whirlwind的新产品大卖就指日可待了。可是如果虽然大多数玩家表示他们喜欢画面栩栩如生的游戏，但实际上他们的电脑陈旧，根本无法运行他们所钟爱的游戏，而Whirlwind的新游戏上市也不会促使他们去买最新的电脑的话，那么他们只能选择不玩这些新游戏，作者的预期可能就要落空了。
中间第三段
ts (pt3): Last, the author postulates that the overall quality of the new games will be attractive enough to the players and the advertising campaign will effectively persuade the consumers to buy the latest products.  如果包括画面、音效、剧情、操作性、价格在内的Whirlwind新产品综合质量得到消费者认可这一假设成立，那么销量会增加的结论有可能是正确的。可是作者只提到新游戏符合画面逼真这个要求，则有可能其音效不震撼、剧情苍白、难以操作、价格高得难以接受，使得玩家不买，那么假设就不成立了，作者的预测也就不可信。还有这场针对ten to twenty-five years old人的广告宣传，能否达到吸引众多玩家购买的效果，也取决于人口结构、消费能力等因素。比如在当地人口中，该年龄段的人恰好很少，则广告宣传也吸引不来多少消费者。还有，这些人的消费能力有限，哪怕广告激发了他们购买的热情，也许由于他们根本就没有足够的闲钱来买游戏，广告宣传还是没有达到预期的目的，那么结论也就因此不可靠了。