Remarks for OP:
1. result are random for each single application, but the relization is just either 1 or 0. the only safety step you can do is: apply to more schools, and don't just apply to school that you expected to get, but add a couple more a bit lower one as safety.
Normally when talking about 定位, the best method is not talking about the probaiblity of a single school, but if a list a school is safe enough or not.
2. the reason why not NYU is seldom stated explicitly here, but as far as I read in quite some english forum, they are: relativly easy core course, and adjunt professor from industry instead of academics for teaching.
3. keep away from 中介 is the very first rule.