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发表于 2004-12-7 23:40:00
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Argument1
------题目------
The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.
'Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age.'
------正文------
In this argument, the vice president of Nature's Way first concludes that the residents in Plainville are highly concerned of leading healthy lives, from the increase in the local sales of running shoes and exercise clothing, the popularity of the local health club, and the requirement for local schoolchildren to participate in a "fitness for life" program. Considering that their previous experience has show that their stores in areas with such residents are the most profitable, the arguer further comes to such a conclusion that the same story must take place in Plainville, and confidently proposes that their should open their next store in this area. The future seems prospective, but it is a pity that both the conclusions and the proposal are groundless and unconvincing, with the available information.
The increase in the local sales of sporting suits, the popularity of local health club, and the requirement for the schoolchildren to participate such a program, are neither adequate nor necessary to show the residents' high concern of leading healthy lives. Maybe the sporting suits are cheaper in this area, maybe the sporting suits are in style and the resident just buy them to be fashionable It is likely that the local health club has take some effective measures to attract more members, such as reducing the fees, improving their advertisement, introducing more equipment, employing more famous trainers. Or, maybe there will be some kind of important sporting game in this area, resulting in the local people paying attention to do physical exercises.
Although their previous experience show that their stores are most profitable in the areas where residents are highly concerned of leading lives, it is hard to say that Plainville will not be an exception, even the residents have high concern for living healthy lives. The residents may just be interested in walking after dinner, jogging, playing balls, with no concern of the health food or the other health-related products. They may think that they are sound enough just by take physical exercises. If there are already such kinds of stores, the residents with interest have many choices, they may choose the store nearby, the one that they are familiar with, or the one provides cheaper items. All these are possible, and then make the new store hard to run in this area.
So, with the available evidence and previous experience, we can see the possibly bright future of opening a new store in Plainville, but the arguer should make wider survey and deeper analysis to ensure that the local residents will be the potential customers of Nature's Way next new store there, and then make it as profitable as anticipated from the previous experience.
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