ARGUMENT154 这种开头是不是更具吸引力？

ZHGsunnyUID: 185312

------154题目------
The following appeared in the editorial section of a health and fitness magazine.
In a study of the effect of exercise on longevity, medical researchers tracked 500 middle-aged men over a 20-year period. The subjects represented a varirty of occupations in several different parts of the country and responded to an annual survey in which they were asked: How often and how strenuously do you exercise? Of those who responded, the men who reported that they engaged in vigorous outdoor exercise nearly every day lived longer than the men who reported that they exercise mildly only once or twice a week. Given the clear link that this study established between longevity and exercise, doctor should not recommend moderate exercise to their patients but should instead encourage vigorous outdoor exercise on a daily basis.
在一次关于健康对寿命的影响的调查中，医务人员在20年的期间跟踪了500名中年男子。调查对象覆盖了全国若干不同的地区的多种职业，他们每年回答一次问卷，在问卷中他们被问道：你锻炼的频率和强度如？在那些回答了问卷了人中，那些报告说自己几乎每天都参加激烈的户外运动的人比那些报告说自己每周仅仅温和地锻炼一两次的人活的长。卷与这一调查所建立的长寿和锻炼之间的明显联系，医生不应该建议患者进行温和的运动而应该鼓励他们每天参加激烈的户外运动。

------正文------
The arguer concludes that doctors should not recommend moderate exercise to their patients but should instead encourage vigorous outdoor exercise on a daily basis, because a study gave the clear link between longevity and exercise. However, the argument suffers from several flaws， which render it unpersuasive. First, is it the study reliable? In addition, does the survey results based on 500 middle-aged men similarly fit for patients? I will discuss each of these two flaws in turn.

First of all, the argument is based on a study of the effects of exercise on longevity, in which medical researchers tracked 500 middle-aged men over a 20-year period, and the arguer unfairly assumes that the study is statistically reliable. However, a careful scrutiny reveals that the study is quite open to doubt in two aspects. First, the study was conducted in 500 middle-aged men. Then how about woman, children and old people? Do the survey results equally suit for these people? Moreover, how about the health condition of the subjects before they are examined? Do they have the similar health condition? Do some of them suffer any lethal or inherited diseases?  Lacking such evidences, we cannot be convinced that the subjects of the study are surely representative.

Second, even assuming the subjects of the study are representative, the arguer also cannot reasonably claims that a clear link between longevity and exercise has been given by the study. Because we are not informed what is the real reasons for the death of those persons who exercised mildly only once or twice a week during this 20-year period. Is it due to the lack of exercises or due to other factors? It is entirely possible that a severe accident that caused the sudden dying. The arguer also fails to eliminate the possibility that the subjects, facing some difficulties or misfortunes, finally selected suicide to over their own life. Unless these possibilities could be ruled out, the results of the survey are unfounded.

  Except the survey, the arguer's recommendation is also problematic. Even if there is a clear link between longevity and exercise, severe exercise dose not equally apply to patients.  Perhaps, some patients even cannot move at all, not to mention vigorous outdoor exercise. Or perhaps, vigorous outdoor exercise would speed up some patients' dying who suffer from certain serious diseases, such as heart disease, respiratory illness. All of these possibilities could undermine the arguer's recommendation that patients should be encouraged vigorous outdoor exercise on a daily basis.

In sum, the conclusion is unconvincing. Because the evidence does not strongly support what the arguer maintains. Unless the credibility of the study and the survey results are proved, we cannot better assess the argument. The information about the health condition of the patients also should be mentioned. In short, before any final decisions are made, the arguer should consider carefully.

poohUID: 146994

这样开头不错，但是First, is it the study reliable? In addition, does the survey results based on 500 middle-aged men similarly fit for patients? 应该跟下面的body段一一对应起来，而你这句仅仅在body1中有涉及。

ZHGsunnyUID: 185312

在非常感谢！同意你的观点，我怎么就没想到呢！嗯，以后一定注意！真是受益匪浅！希望能经常得到你的指点哟！