Argument205 再补上一片argu， 必回拍！！限时写的！！

alinazhUID: 187151

Argument205 The following appeared in a recommendation from the president of Amburg's Chamber of Commerce.
"Last October the city of Belleville installed high intensity lighting in its central business district, and vandalism there declined almost immediately. The city of Amburg has recently begun police patrols on bicycles in its business district but the rate of vandalism there remains constant. Since high intensity lighting is apparently the most effective way to combat crime, we should install such lighting throughout Amburg. By reducing crime in this way, we can revitalize the declining neighborhoods in our city."

In this recommendation, the president of Amburg's Chamber of Commerce concludes that since high intensity lighting is apparently the most effective way to combat crime, the city Amburg should install such lighting throughout the city. To support this conclusion, the president provides some evidences, such as the same method in the city of Belleville and its reduced vandalism, Amburg's recent policy patrols and constant vandalism. However, after close scrutiny, we find that these evidences lead little support on the author's recommendation.

First of all, there is no evidence to prove that in City of Belleville, the reducing vandalism is caused by the high intensity lighting. In fact, from this recommendation, we just know that both facts happened at the same time. It may be that Belleville carried on other policies at the same time, such as increasing policy patrols, increasing regulation on the activities at night, so the vandalism can be decreased. Thus, whether lighting and vandalism have the causal relationship is uncertain. Therefore, because the president does not give other information about the relationship between thetwo facts, the important reason for this recommendation on installing lighting in City of Belleville is unfounded.

Secondly, even if there is some causal relationship between above both facts in the city of Belleville, the author may not assure that this installing may be also fit in Amburg. In fact, the author makes the false analogy. It is because author does not consider many differences between two cities on the vandalism. For example, most vandalism in Amburg may be happened in the day time rather than at night, thus the intensity lighting is apparently useless in Amburg. Therefore, the author does not think about the different aspects carefully and comprehensively, so this analogy is unconvinced.

Thirdly, the author fails to convince us that Amburg's recent policy patrols are useless for the rate of vandalism. In fact, from the recommendation, we know that this policy patrols is recently carried on. It may be that the launched time is too short to see the effects and final result. Maybe after half a year, because of this policy patrols, the rate of vandalism is decreased. Therefore, the author gives us a hasty and baseless assumption on the effect of policy patrols.

Finally, even if the crime can be reduced by intensity lighting in Amburg, there is no evidence to prove that the neighborhoods can be more friendly. The author fails to rule out other reasons for bad neighborhoods.

In conclusion, the recommendation is unreasonable. To strengthen it, the president have  to provide more detailed evidences on the effects of lighting on reducing vandalism in both cities, and on revitalizing neighborhoods in Amburg.

zhoulin00001UID: 189304

In this recommendation, the president of Amburg's Chamber of Commerce concludes that since high intensity lighting is apparently the most effective way to combat crime, the city Amburg should install such lighting throughout the city. To support this conclusion, the president provides some evidences, such as the same method in the city of Belleville and its reduced vandalism, Amburg's recent policy patrols and constant vandalism. However, after close scrutiny, we find that these evidences lead little support on the author's recommendation. 开头太长，建议简化

First of all, there is no evidence to prove that in City of Belleville, the reducing vandalism is caused by the high intensity lighting. In fact, from this recommendation, we just know that both facts happened at the same time. It may be that Belleville carried on other policies at the same time, such as increasing policy patrols, increasing regulation on the activities at night, so the vandalism can be decreased. Thus, whether lighting and vandalism have the causal relationship is uncertain. Therefore, because the president does not give other information about the relationship between thetwo facts, the important reason for this recommendation on installing lighting in City of Belleville is unfounded. 分析的很好

Secondly, even if there is some causal relationship between above both facts in the city of Belleville, the author may not assure that this installing may be also fit in Amburg. In fact, the author makes the false analogy. It is because author does not consider many differences between two cities on the vandalism. For example, most vandalism in Amburg may be happened in the day time rather than at night, thus the intensity lighting is apparently useless in Amburg. Therefore, the author does not think about the different aspects carefully and comprehensively, so this analogy is unconvinced.

Thirdly, the author fails to convince us that Amburg's recent policy patrols are useless for the rate of vandalism. In fact, from the recommendation, we know that this policy patrols is recently carried on. It may be that the launched time is too short to see the effects and final result. Maybe after half a year, because of this policy patrols, the rate of vandalism is decreased. Therefore, the author gives us a hasty and baseless assumption on the effect of policy patrols.

Finally, even if the crime can be reduced by intensity lighting in Amburg, there is no evidence to prove that the neighborhoods can be more friendly. The author fails to rule out other reasons for bad neighborhoods. 这一点分析的不深入

In conclusion, the recommendation is unreasonable. To strengthen it, the president have to provide more detailed evidences on the effects of lighting on reducing vandalism in both cities, and on revitalizing neighborhoods in Amburg.
总体感觉不错，思路很清晰，还有一点就是肆意破坏不能代表犯罪好象没涉及，个人意见，仅攻参考

alinazhUID: 187151

我会努力的！！