Argument 205,这是我的第三篇，望不吝赐教

allenlldUID: 188081

Argument205  第3篇 让砖头来得更猛烈些吧！
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作者：寄托家园作文版普通用户     共用时间：29分27秒     319 words
从2005年2月4日16时19分到2005年2月4日16时29分
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The following appeared in a recommendation from the president of Amburg's Chamber of Commerce.
'Last October the city of Belleville installed high intensity lighting in its central business district, and vandalism there declined almost immediately. The city of Amburg has recently begun police patrols on bicycles in its business district but the rate of vandalism there remains constant. Since high intensity lighting is apparently the most effective way to combat crime, we should install such lighting throughout Amburg. By reducing crime in this way, we can revitalize the declining neighborhoods in our city.'
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In this argument, the arguer recommends to install the intensity lighting throughout Amburg to combat the vandalism and revitalize the decining neighborhoods. To support the recommendation, the arguer points out that vandalism in Belleville declined almost immediately after high intensity lighting in its central business district was installed.In addition, the arguer gives the fact that the rate of vandalism in Amburg remains constant even the police patrols on bicycles in its business district has recently begun.Meanwhile, the arguer assume that high intensity lighting is apparently the most effective way to combat crime. The argument is unconvincing for having several flaws.
First, the arguer commits a fallacy of false analogy. Although Belleville decreased the vandalism by installing high intensity lighting in its central business district, we can't draw the conclusion that this can have the same effect in Amburg. There are differences between the two cities, we can just assume that the vandalism in Belleville occured at night while in Amburg most of which happens in day time, if so, the lighting will have little effect.

Second, the arguer makes an unwarranted assumption. The arguer just gives no reason why the high intensity lighting is the most effective way to combat crime. We can also recon that the police patrols on  bicycles is just at beginning and in small size,maybe in the not far future ,it will take effect.
Third, the arguer advocates to install such lighting throughout Amburg, which is possibly not unnecessary.As we do not know where the crime happens,if it happens only in the bussiness district, then installing lighting in other districts will be wasty.
Finally, the arguer mentions that the neighborhoods are declining, but he just hasn't given the causal relation between it and the crime.
To sum up, the arguer just gives a hasty conclusion on some groundless resonings, we should accept his recommendation untill we have enough convincing evidences.

apolloxpUID: 156355

第一段复述原题应该精简些，后面的分析则应该具体些
现在这篇文章问题很严重啊

allenlldUID: 188081

多谢apolloxp，我昨天刚刚开始动手写第一篇，有些不知道如何下笔，能否说得更详细点？比如其它的问题？thank you very much!