Argument68 第16篇 让砖头来得更猛烈些吧!
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作者:寄托家园作文版普通用户 共用时间:30分13秒 339 words
从2005年2月5日22时24分到2005年2月5日22时30分
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The following appeared in a memo from a budget planner for the City of Grandview.
'To avoid a budget deficit next year, the City of Grandview must eliminate its funding for the Grandview Symphony. Our citizens are well aware of the fact that while the Grandview Symphony Orchestra was struggling to succeed, our city government promised annual funding to help support its programs. Last year, however, private contributions to the Symphony increased by 200 percent, and attendance at the Symphony's concerts-in-the-park series doubled. The Symphony has also announced an increase in ticket prices for next year. Such developments indicate that the Symphony can now succeed without funding from city government and we can eliminate that expense from next year's budget. This action will surely prevent a budget deficit.'
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In the memo, the arguer claims that to avoid a budget deficit next year, the city of Grandview must eliminate its funding for the Grandview Symphiny. In order to support the memo, the arguer points out that private contributions to the Symphony increasing by 200 percent and attendance at the aymphony's concerts-in-the-park series doubling. In addition, the symphony has also announced an increase in ticket prices for next year. With these evidence, the arguer assemes that the Symphony can now succeed without funding from city government and they can eliminate the next year's budget. Careful examination of the assumption reveal that the credibility of the memo is open to doubt.
In the first place, although the Symphony's private contributions increasing 200%, it is not necessarily indicate that private contribution is enough to support the Symphony Orcchestra. It is entirely possible that the former private contributions is little. So while the private contributions increased by 200%, the total amount of the private contributions is not enough. In addition, attendance at the symphony's concerts-in-the-park series doubling is not indicate the revenue of the concert increase. Perhaps, just because the price of the concert ticket is lower, the attendace increase. It is entirely possible that the concert even don't need the ticket. If the arguer can not rule out these possibilities, the assumption is unconvienced.
In the second place, the arguer unfairly assume that since the Symphony announce an increase in ticket prices for next year, the revenue of the Syphony will also increase. Perhaps, just because the Syphony lack of the funding, the Syphony has to announce to increase the price of the ticket. It is also possible that since the price increase, the number of audience will decrease. At last the total revenue will decrease. There is no evidence that rule out the possibilities.
In the final analyse, the argument suffers from several fallacies. To justify the assumption, the arguer should provide more evidence that the Syphony can make living by themsely. In order to evaluate the ar