issue54 历史 帮我改改吧

arhooUID: 180462

The time we live in is an axis that has a direction, from the past, through the present and towards the future. Every second comes out of the previous second and the present comes out of the accumulated effects of the past, no matter in a deterministic way or not. Therefore, even though the history may not provide us any guaranteed answers, it is still helpful to learn about the past for making important decisions.

It is true that today's world is changing rapidly and we are facing tremendous uncertainty. This uncertainty, therefore, often prevent us from drawing direct solutions out of the knowledge of history. An example comes from the investment decision making in stock market. The stock prices are notoriously difficult to predict despite that countless versions of financial theory and statistical model have been established to make use of the historical data. There was a study shows that the return of a portfolio of stocks selected by a monkey, no more different than random selected, is no worse than a carefully chosen one recommended by a group of preeminent economists. Another vivid paradigm is the weather forecast. "What's the use when I'm told there's 70 percent probability of raining tomorrow? If the reality drops into the other 30 percent, does it prove the forecast wrong?" This is a typical complaint we have heard from people.

However, such a forecast does mean something. A 70 percent probability to rain indicates that taking an umbrella with you is much safer than not doing so. Facing the omnipresent uncertainty, the concept of probability is a tool of human beings to describe and perceive it. No matter one is averse or neutral toward risks, the study of historical data can offer him a prediction with probability, though not so precise, containing considerable information for decision-making.

In fact, the main invalidity of the knowledge about history derives from the incapability to make precise predictions. However, even this conclusion is summarized from the observation of the past. In deed, an important source of history's value is the lessons it teaches us. The history, usually viewed as a mirror by people in China, calmly tells us gain and loss, dos and don'ts. The experience of World War 2 teaches us never to pacificate and compromise with people who have same ambition as Nazi; the tragedy of September 11th shows us that terrorists target at innocent and defenceless civilians thus we should choose to stoutly eliminate such common enemies of humankind. Even in the above-mentioned stock market, people still learn from the past: do not put all eggs into one basket.

Today is so new and complex that we are often bewildered in front of it. Nevertheless, under the ever-changing surface, we are able to find something unchanging over time. Maybe history cannot convoy us to our destination; it illuminates the front territory of us. Thus, we decide which way to go.

staralwaysUID: 193479

占座了，下午贴上来。

staralwaysUID: 193479

The time we live in is an axis that has a direction, from the past, through the present and towards the future.[贯穿过去、现在、将来的轴线，不错] Every second comes out of the previous second and the present comes out of the accumulated effects of the past, no matter in a deterministic way or not. Therefore, even though the history may not provide us any guaranteed answers, it is still helpful to learn about the past for making important decisions. [开头很不错，没有一点复述，展开比较丰富]

It is true that today's world is changing rapidly and we are facing tremendous uncertainty. This uncertainty, therefore, often prevent us from drawing direct solutions out of the knowledge of history. An example comes from the investment decision making in stock market. The stock prices are notoriously difficult to predict despite that countless versions of financial theory and statistical model have been established to make use of the historical data. [呵呵，股市行情的技术分析在实际应用中几乎没多大用处]There was a study shows that the return of a portfolio of stocks selected by a monkey, no more different than random selected, is no worse than a carefully chosen one recommended by a group of preeminent economists. Another vivid paradigm is the weather forecast. "What's the use when I'm told there's 70 percent probability of raining tomorrow? If the reality drops into the other 30 percent, does it prove the forecast wrong?" This is a typical complaint we have heard from people.

However, such a forecast does mean something. A 70 percent probability to rain indicates that taking an umbrella with you is much safer than not doing so. Facing the omnipresent uncertainty, the concept of probability is a tool of human beings to describe and perceive it. No matter one is averse or neutral toward risks, the study of historical data can offer him a prediction with probability, though not so precise, containing considerable information for decision-making.

In fact, the main invalidity of the knowledge about history derives from the incapability to make precise predictions. However, even this conclusion is summarized from the observation of the past. In deed, an important source of history's value is the lessons it teaches us. The history, usually viewed as a mirror by people in China, calmly tells us gain and loss, dos and don'ts. The experience of World War 2 teaches us never to pacificate and compromise with people who have same ambition as Nazi; the tragedy of September 11th shows us that terrorists target at innocent and defenceless civilians thus we should choose to stoutly eliminate such common enemies of humankind. Even in the above-mentioned stock market, people still learn from the past: do not put all eggs into one basket.[呵呵，分散风险的原理]

Today is so new and complex that we are often bewildered in front of it. Nevertheless, under the ever-changing surface, we are able to find something unchanging over time. Maybe history cannot convoy us to our destination; it illuminates the front territory of us. Thus, we decide which way to go.

全文很流畅，几乎没有语法错误，在用例子阐述观点这方面也做得很出色。而且例子也很广泛。而且从未来的不确定性和不可能作出完全精确的预测和决定从另外一个角度来说明了问题，而不是直接的反驳。觉得写了很不错呢。

peipei_fayUID: 163182

The time we live in is an axis that has a direction, from the past, through the present and towards the future. Every second comes out of the previous second and the present comes out of the accumulated effects of the past, no matter in a deterministic way or not. Therefore, even though the history may not provide us any guaranteed answers, it is still helpful to learn about the past for making important decisions.(开头很精彩,简洁)

It is true that today's world is changing rapidly and we are facing tremendous uncertainty. This uncertainty, therefore, often prevent us from drawing direct solutions out of the knowledge of history. An example comes from the investment decision making in stock market. The stock prices are notoriously difficult to predict despite that countless versions of financial theory and statistical model have been established to make use of the historical data. There was a study shows that the return of a portfolio of stocks selected by a monkey, no more different than random selected, is no worse than a carefully chosen one recommended by a group of preeminent economists. Another vivid paradigm is the weather forecast. "What's the use when I'm told there's 70 percent probability of raining tomorrow? If the reality drops into the other 30 percent, does it prove the forecast wrong?" This is a typical complaint we have heard from people.(前一个例子还好,但我觉得天气预报和history 有什么关系呢?虽然他也如你说的一样难以预测,这样说好象有点勉强)


However, such a forecast does mean something. A 70 percent probability to rain indicates that taking an umbrella with you is much safer than not doing so. Facing the omnipresent uncertainty, the concept of probability is a tool of human beings to describe and perceive it. No matter one is averse or neutral toward risks, the study of historical data can offer him a prediction with probability, though not so precise, containing considerable information for decision-making.

In fact, the main invalidity of the knowledge about history derives from the incapability to make precise predictions. However, even this conclusion is summarized from the observation of the past. In deed, an important source of history's value is the lessons it teaches us. The history, usually viewed as a mirror by people in China, calmly tells us gain and loss, dos and don'ts. The experience of World War 2 teaches us never to pacificate and compromise with people who have same ambition as Nazi; the tragedy of September 11th shows us that terrorists target at innocent and defenceless civilians thus we should choose to stoutly eliminate such common enemies of humankind. Even in the above-mentioned stock market, people still learn from the past: do not put all eggs into one basket.(论证得比较好, 一个类比很能说明问题)

Today is so new and complex that we are often bewildered in front of it. Nevertheless, under the ever-changing surface, we are able to find something unchanging over time. Maybe history cannot convoy us to our destination; it illuminates the front territory of us. Thus, we decide which way to go.

你写得很好,我羡慕得简直没话说了,语言不错,表达得也很到位.
有一点,我觉得你先说第四段:历史确实教会了我们什么,什么的,
然后再说即使瞬息万变的今天那种风险的分析也是有用的,这样从强到弱的论证要更容易被接受一点.