Argument8 限时失败，恳请大家拍砖！

staralwaysUID: 193479

题目：
The following appeared in a memorandum issued by the strategic planning department at Omni Inc.
"Mesa Foods, a manufacturer of snack foods that currently markets its products within a relatively small region of the country, has strong growth potential. Mesa enjoyed a 20 percent increase in profits last year, and its best-selling product, Diabolique Salsa, has had increased sales over each of the past three years. Since Omni Inc. is interested in reaching 14-to-25 year olds, the age group that consumes the most snack food, we should buy Mesa Foods, and concentrate in particular on marketing Diabolique Salsa throughout the country."
Mesa Foods，一家当前仅在本国相对较小区域销售其产品的快餐食品生产商，具有很强的增长潜力。去年Mesa的利润上升了20%，其最畅销产品Diabolique Salsa连续三年销量增加。由于Omni Inc对14－25岁这一消费快餐食品最多的年龄群体感兴趣，我们应该收购Mesa Foods，并集中力量在全国推广Diabolique Salsa。

正文：
In the memorandum, the author suggests that Omni Inc. should buy Mesa Foods, a manufacturer of snack foods, and concentrate in particular on marketing Diaboligue Salsa through out the country. To support his suggestion, the author cites fact to show that Mesa Food has great growth potential and Diabolique Salsa is its best-selling product. The advice, seems to be reasonable at first glance, however, suffers from several flaws.

Firstly, the two facts the author cites as evidence are insufficient to support that Mesa Foods has strong growth potential. The first fact that a 20 percent sales increase in profits last year does not necessarily mean that it did better than its competitors. What if the base number is 100,000 and thus the increment is 20,000, while one of its competitors has a 10 percent sales increment while the base is 1,000,000? Further more, the second fact that Diabolique Salsa, its best-selling product, has had increased sales over each of the past three years still cannot show Mesa Foods' sale performance was good. What about other products? If sales of those products declined much more, the real situation maybe that its performance was actually going down. Without providing such information about the competitors and other products of Mesa Foods, it is unconvincing for the author to ensure us that it has strong growth potential.

Secondly, even assuming that Mesa Foods does have good growth potential, there is no evidence to show that the author's proposal is proper. The mere fact that Omni Inc. is interested in reaching 14-to-25 year olds, the age group that consumes the most snack food, does not necessarily lead to the buying of Mesa Foods. The author fails to think of other possible means to appeal more consumers in that age group. For example, buy a manufacturer currently having large portion of the soft-drinking market, which stands among the top interests of 14-to-25 year olds. In addition, evening assuming that Omni Inc. does at last follow the author's proposal, there's no guarantee that it will bring about a lot of profit. We are informed that Mesa Foods is a manufacturer that currently markets its products within a relatively small region of the country, while the author suggests the company to marketing Diaboligue Salsa throughout the country. People's preference in other areas of the country may greatly differs from that of this small region, even the opposite. If Omni Inc. starts a nationwide campaign to promote Diaboligue Salsa, while the consumers dislike the products of Mesa Foods, the company will unavoidably face failure. Without concerning this kind of information and the relevant possibility of failure, the author's advice is groundless.

In conclusion, the author fails to convince us that his proposal is an advisable one. To strengthen the argument, the author would have to offer further information to show that Mesa Foods does in fact has strong growth potential. To better evaluate the argument, the author needs to consider the situation out of the small region currently Mesa Foods focuses on to show the consumers will prefer its products.

staralwaysUID: 193479

up!

imongUID: 140258

The author fails to think of other possible means to appeal more consumers in that age group.

是fail to think of other means 还是other means may actually be much more effective/ advantaged？

the two facts the author cites as evidence are insufficient to support that Mesa Foods has strong growth potential.
这里感觉驳得不太对头。
你后面说的是绝对量和相对量的关系 这个好像和potential差了老远了。比如说申请研究生院 一般都说小本research exp不如研究生丰富 绝对量小 但是人家potential更好 增长势头有空间。感觉你这里正好给写反了？

看到你帖子连着沉了几个就捞一下 自己加油找找伴啦。^^

staralwaysUID: 193479

是fail to think of other means 还是other means may actually be much more effective/ advantaged？恩，仔细看下我想表述的意思应该是后者。imong真是看得细啊，看来argument的语言更是要精确，不能含糊过去，不然就被反过来驳斥了。

你后面说的是绝对量和相对量的关系 这个好像和potential差了老远了。比如说申请研究生院 一般都说小本research exp不如研究生丰富 绝对量小 但是人家potential更好 增长势头有空间。感觉你这里正好给写反了？我当时是这样想的：题目中提到的是相对量的概念，那么它潜在的假设就是以相对量做评判标准，不然好像就无法反驳了。现在看来是imong说的对，成长性和数字也是没有特别大的关系，数字并不代表growth potential 。

呵呵，真是收益不小啊！