讨论两篇argument103 105，题目中的有些论据怎么批？

猫猫624UID: 171232

讨论两篇argument，题目中的有些论据怎么批？

103Blue City Highway had always been notorious for its tight curves and poor roadway visibility, and the accident rate there was generally very high. Last year the highway was redesigned to broaden the curves and improve roadway visibility. Drivers report that they now feel much safer driving on the highway and that the redesign has been a big improvement. But the number of accidents on the highway has not been significantly lower in the six months since the redesign than it was in the six months before the redesign. Therefore, the redesign clearly did not improve the curves and roadway visibility enough to make a difference.

1 high accident rate not necessarily resulted from tight curves and poor roadway visibility
2 the fact that the lower number of accidents on the highway in the six months since the redesign than it was in the six months before the redesign fails to provide substantial evidence to the redesign clearly did not improve the curves and roadway visibility enough to make a difference
文中Drivers report that they now feel much safer driving on the highway and that the redesign has been a big improvement 怎么批，能说这一report 可能有效吗？就想批驳 unreliable survey 那样，只不过反过来批。


105The following appeared in a health newsletter.
"According to a recent study, people with many social ties report catching colds less often than do people with few social ties. Consequently, researchers conclude that having an active social life probably helps strengthen the immune system. The researchers note that catching a cold—one of a family of highly contagious viruses—gives the cold-sufferer temporary immunity to that virus in the future, but not to the many other related viruses. Merely being exposed to a new cold virus, however, is not enough for a person to catch a cold, since a strong immune system can successfully fight off some new viruses. Thus, in order to prevent catching a cold, people should strengthen their immune systems by becoming more active socially."
1 study’s unreliability
2 catching less cold does not result from active social ties
3 overlooking possible negative effects of active social ties

中间的一长串he researchers note that catching a cold—one of a family of highly contagious viruses—gives the cold-sufferer temporary immunity to that virus in the future, but not to the many other related viruses. Merely being exposed to a new cold virus, however, is not enough for a person to catch a cold, since a strong immune system can successfully fight off some new viruses.怎么批，似乎和结论没什么关系？
请牛人指点

猫猫624UID: 171232

沉了,自己顶一下

猫猫624UID: 171232

再顶,斑竹大虾们,帮帮忙!

migao21UID: 58234

103 Blue City Highway had always been notorious for its tight curves and poor roadway visibility, and the accident rate there was generally very high. Last year the highway was redesigned to broaden the curves and improve roadway visibility. Drivers report that they now feel much safer driving on the highway and that the redesign has been a big improvement. But the number of accidents on the highway has not been significantly lower in the six months since the redesign than it was in the six months before the redesign. Therefore, the redesign clearly did not improve the curves and roadway visibility enough to make a difference.

1 high accident rate not necessarily resulted from tight curves and poor roadway visibility
2 the fact that the lower number of accidents on the highway in the six months since the redesign than it was in the six months before the redesign fails to provide substantial evidence to the redesign clearly did not improve the curves and roadway visibility enough to make a difference
文中Drivers report that they now feel much safer driving on the highway and that the redesign has been a big improvement 怎么批，能说这一report 可能有效吗？就想批驳 unreliable survey 那样，只不过反过来批。

我觉得report最好不要批unreliable, 包括survey, 统计出来的结果是有效的，只能从统计的方式和人数上来批。
看了猴哥的里面说道；
车祸的严重程度是否减小
The other conditions between those two periods were probably different; Consider weather, the increase of vehicle, the management of highway.
Is it possilbe that since drivers feel much safer they driver more faster and incautious?


105The following appeared in a health newsletter.
"According to a recent study, people with many social ties report catching colds less often than do people with few social ties. Consequently, researchers conclude that having an active social life probably helps strengthen the immune system. The researchers note that catching a cold—one of a family of highly contagious viruses—gives the cold-sufferer temporary immunity to that virus in the future, but not to the many other related viruses. Merely being exposed to a new cold virus, however, is not enough for a person to catch a cold, since a strong immune system can successfully fight off some new viruses. Thus, in order to prevent catching a cold, people should strengthen their immune systems by becoming more active socially."
1 study’s unreliability
2 catching less cold does not result from active social ties
3 overlooking possible negative effects of active social ties

中间的一长串The researchers note that catching a cold—one of a family of highly contagious viruses—gives the cold-sufferer temporary immunity to that virus in the future, but not to the many other related viruses. Merely being exposed to a new cold virus, however, is not enough for a person to catch a cold, since a strong immune system can successfully fight off some new viruses.怎么批，似乎和结论没什么关系？


"temporary immunity " does not insure that one will not absolutely get the same disease.
"but not to the many other related viruses" 说明会感染上其他病毒
"is not enough for a person to catch a cold"  可能会有其他病状？

寻梦UID: 171591

1.catching a cold—one of a family of highly contagious viruses—gives the cold-sufferer temporary immunity to that virus in the future样本数据在哪??无据攻击法.再有, 得感冒能增加免疫??咣咣两锤!!!!
2.Merely being exposed to a new cold virus, however, is not enough for a person to catch a cold, since a strong immune system cansuccessfully fight off some new viruses.该结论的来源是否权威;有什么信息可以证明immune system是对所有的这种情况都适合??难道那些病毒都干累了???就算是,谁能保证新的感冒病毒也是这样一幅臭德行>>>??

haze1894UID: 185775

我是觉得在A103中，可以对接受调查的司机置疑，对警觉性好，遵守交通规则的司机来说路面的改造当然会带来不同的感受

gehaifengUID: 189090

同问 对103
按照修瑞的书，需要找出明显的判据错误，这是我找的

1    将单纯的因果关系或时间关系混淆起来
The agument conclude conclude on the correlation between the number of accidents and the redesign of the road. 也许 通车的数量增多了， 因此总的变大，但是事故率还是降低了
2    过去的不能说明将来 “仅仅六个月的过程不具备典型性，不足以说明一定效果就降低了
   统计的数据应当更多些，而且两个不同的六月不具备可比性
3   看来四楼的思路，车祸的严重程度

thminUID: 192642

我觉得arguer的思路在于，提出socially active的人不容易得colds，是因为他们的active social life加强了免疫系统，为什么？你引用的那段话给出了研究者的论点：先暗示这些人一旦得了感冒，就会产生免疫力，虽然只是对一种病毒产生免疫，但是只接触到一种新的病毒不足以让人得病，因为这种免疫力足以杀死一些新病毒。而问题就在于：
1. the temporary immunity will not permanently prevent from the infection of viruses.
2. It cannot be guaranteed that these people will always be exposed to only one new virus.
3. that immune system can fight off some new viruses does not ensure people will not catch a cold.
这只是你引用的那段里我找出来的问题。
其实写到这里我也有点confused了，感觉这个arguer好像在转圈子，总的来说，是从社交到增强免疫，再从增强免疫到不易感冒。所以他说我们应该通过社交来增加免疫，进而就不易得感冒了。但是仔细看来，他的意思好像又是，如果我们都社交的话，只有先感冒过了才能增加免疫力，然后防止感冒。有点循环论证的感觉，还真不知道这个要怎么处理呢。是不是我考虑得太复杂了？

猫猫624UID: 171232

谢谢兄弟姐妹们的支持:
103 我想大家没有明白我的意思.  文中对driver的survey 是不支持最后结论了,司机说道路改善了,但结论说道路没有改善.和我们平时遇见的批驳survey (survey支持结论)是不一样的.该如何批驳.

105文中要批驳两层因果关系social activity -------增加免疫力strengthen the immune system
                                         增加免疫力strengthen the immune system--------不感冒
   The researchers note that catching a cold—one of a family of highly contagious viruses—gives the cold-sufferer temporary immunity to that virus in the future, but not to the many other related viruses 指出某种病毒引起的感冒可能会暂时曾加对该病毒免疫力, 因为社交活动有机会接触病毒因此可以增加免疫力.

可以根据研究结果不确定性以及只有一种病毒不能说明其他病毒也如此.等等来批

Merely being exposed to a new cold virus, however, is not enough for a person to catch a cold, since a strong immune system can successfully fight off some new viruses指出免疫力强可以避免感冒

可以根据之间并不构成因果关系,他因法来批.