几篇阿狗，希望有人能帮忙看看！4。4 南京考，准备的很差了。

takashaUID: 200906

argument 6

The loan applicant claims that a jazz club in Monroe would bring a tremendously profit. To support his claim, he points out that there is only one jazz club in the city, and the nearest one is 65 miles far from there; then, he adds that so many residents attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer and several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe; a jazz radio program airs every weeknight. However, this argument has a lot of logical faults, so it cannot support the loan applicant's claim and made it credible.

In the first place, the first evidence the author puts actually converts the author' s suggestion. Common sense tells me, if the residents really love the jazz, it cannot be only a jazz club in Monroe, at least one or two. But from this argument we know the nearest jazz club is in the 65 miles away. It may actually show that residents in Monroe don not favored in this form of music at all. This evidence has not adequately responded to this concern and actually dermises the claim.

In the second place, the author assumes that there were over 100,000 people attended the jazz festival in Monroe last summer, and the people are surely favored in jazz. However, it is entirely possible that the vast majority attendants are visitors. It cannot support the claim either. Nor does the mere fact that several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe lend significant support to the applicant's claim. It is entirely possible that they perform outside the city, perhaps the club that lies 65 miles away from the city. This would weaken the applicant's suggestion that the C-Note would be profitable. Moreover, the author provides no evidence that radio listeners would like going out to hear live jazz. For that matter, the radio program airs during the night were actually pose competition for the C-Note club.
  
Last but not least, the author gives the evidence that comes from a nationwide study that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It seems support the author's final claim. But the study is a nationwide and the statistics is an average one. Unless Monroe residents typify jazz fans nationwide, the showing would lend little support to the applicant's claim.

In sum, the argument is not convincing. To bolster it he must provide clearer evidence that Monroe residents would really like the C-Note on a regular basis. Such evidence might include the following: statistics showing that a significant number of Monroe residents attend the jazz festival each year; a survey showing that fans of Monroe's jazz radio program would go out to hear live jazz; and assurances from well-known local jazz musicians that they would play at the C-Note if given the opportunity. Until the author provides the evidences above mentioned I cannot accept his claim.

takashaUID: 200906

Argument76: 406 words   30 minutes
The following appeared as part of an article in a health and beauty magazine.
'A group of volunteers participated in a study of consumer responses to the new Luxess face cream. Every morning for a month, they washed their faces with mild soap and then applied Luxess. At the end of that month, most volunteers reported a marked improvement in the way their skin looked and felt. Thus it appears that Luxess is truly effective in improving the condition of facial skin.'

In this argument, the arguer advocates that Luxess has a truly effective improvement on the condition of facial skin. To support the conclusion the arguer cites that a study was made and proved the remarkable function of the new Luxess face cream. For most volunteers who participated in the survey reported their skin improve in looking and feeling after use the Luxess face cream. Otherwise the argument contains a lot of logic false and the conclusion is not convincing for several reasons.

In the first place, the arguer makes the conclusion on the basis of an unsubstantial survey. In the argument, we are told that "a group of volunteers" participated in the study. However, it lacks enough information to let the study more convincing, such as the volunteers' age, working background, etc. It is likely that these volunteers are all healthy, beauty, and young women, whose skin are almost in good condition. Even if the cream is useful, it just suits this kind of people. If this is the case, the conclusion will be undermined.

In the second place, the arguer ignores the false logical hole in the study. During the month, the process of the experiment is using the Luxess face cream after using the mild soap, and then in the end, most volunteers claimed that there was truly a marked improvement. Common sense told us, if the two things were used together, we couldn’t ignore the possible effect of the mild soap. It is entirely likely that it is the mild soap, not the Luxess face cream, which really has an influence in the way skin looked and felt. Unless the arguer could demonstrate that the mild soap completely cannot lead to the result, the conclusion should be put in question.

Last but not least, the argument does not give sufficient evidence and information to prove the new face cream is safe. What about it’s by - effect? If it contains some toxic chemicals that undermine our immune system, should we use it regardless its harm side? The arguer should concerns more about the new cream and its function before makes the hasty conclusion.

All in all, to bolster the final conclusion, the arguer needs more convincing evidence and information as followings: (1) the information about the volunteers, especially whether they are representative enough; (2) the mild soap have no effect to the study's result;(3) the new Luxess face cream if safe and really very useful.

takashaUID: 200906

argument 149

In the memorandum, the director makes an assumption that sending Get-Away Airlines (GAA) mechanics to the Quality-Care seminar, which the maintenance crews of an automobile racing industry had attended, and they performance improved markedly, will certainly lead to improved maintenance along with greater customer satisfaction and great profits. I find this argument unconvincing for several reasons.

First of all, the argument relies on what might be a false analogy between GAA mechanics and the automobile racing industry's maintenance crews. The author assumes that the seminar has a significant effect to the automobile racing industry, and it surely can improve GAA performance. However, this assumption is unwarranted. For instance, the workers of this two companies perform completely different jobs, although it seems that in some parts of their jobs exist the same functions, but they are totally different. The crews in Cars Company are more care about the speed than the safety of racing drivers, on the contrary, the GAA mechanics are required to ensure that all parts of the plane are in good state, otherwise it will lead to a serious disaster and thousands of lives will lose. Moreover, the requirements of these two kinds of crews are not the same. Common sense informs me that any racing car's mechanics can confidently do the same job as a plane mechanic unless he took more lessons on this course. Based on this, I cannot accept the author's assumption before he provides some evidence to prove it.

Further more, the argument concludes based on a known correlation between the seminar and the performance improvement, at least partly, to the former. Yet the correlation alone amounts to scant evidence of the claimed cause-and-effect relationship. The author overlooks the possibility that the GAA workers already have well skills before taking the seminar or the QAA already has good equipments and chances to let it improves markedly. If this is the case, then the conclusion that the seminar dues to the improvement would lack any merits whatsoever.

Last but not least, even if all the assumptions above mentioned are true, the improved maintenance also cannot directly lead to a greater customer satisfaction and greater profits for the airline. The satisfaction is affected by many factors. For example, the ticket's price and discount, the service and whether the planes arrive on schedule etc. Moreover, if the spending on the seminar are exceed to the profits, it's not worthwhile to take this seminar. In short, since the argument completely relies on efficient evidence to conclude that the seminar can make effort on the customer satisfaction and greater profits I cannot take the author's conclusion.

In sum, the argument for emulating the automobile racing industry method is not well supported. To convince me that the performance of the automobile racing industry crews improved markedly is really due to the seminar, the author must provide more evidence. Of course, the author must also supply evidence to support his final conclusion that the seminar will lead to improved maintenance and thus to greater customer satisfaction along with great profits.