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45。The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
Inasmuch as a string of evidence evinced that the life inertia of Artic deer that are only active within the Artic territory limited by alternation of warm and cold weather allowing them to find food and travel to another island by ice bridge, the temperature climbs up annually for melting ice as an additional evidence, and some words from local hunters show that the number of such deer is declining. Then the argument’s author terminally arrives at that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their years-long migration patterns across the frozon sea. The conclusion terminated in this argument is specious and somewhat aberrant, attributing to that the evidence cites in this analysis does not own sufficient corroboration to what the author assures.
To begin with, the argument depends on the assumption that the decreasing of the amount of arctic deer relies on the increasing of temperature in that area. However, there may be other reasons for this reducing, for instance, perhaps the shortage of foods for that lethal weather, or perhaps the locals don’t abide to international proposal to protect deer for over-huntering this deer. Yet, without ruling out all other possible reasons, this argument based on only one reason of climate is dubious at best.
Even if the reason of weather really makes any effect to the reducement of arctic deer, yet the author fail to demonstrate how many degree centigrade the temperature this year higher than before, or the annual changing of climate quantified in every degree centigrade, or the up of temperature convince that all the ice bridge can be melted and how many ice bridge melted whether are all essential to deer or not. Likewise, the author shows no evidence that the deer have no choice to alter their generations-passing life style. On direct authorized relationship exists between the temperature changing and the inertia of life style. In short, without more information about data of temperature annual changing and the condition of ice bridges now and before, it is impossible to assess whether recent global warming have real impact—or no impact—on population of arctic deer.
Furthermore, the author provides no affirmative answer that the data collected from local hunters correlation to the decline in deer population are statistically reliable. Perhaps the survey’s subjective were unrepresentative of the whole population for the subjective expresses only a grumble that it is hard to hunter a deer for its alert or the subjective is more and more feeble for ages to hunter a deer, or perhaps other regional hunter feel the number of deer is considerable high. Lacking such evidence, the author simply cannot draw any firm conclusion rested on the survey from local hunter.
Finally, the article has a flaw to consider other regional deer for the Arctic’s remarkable large territory. Probably that is a zero-sum counting that some regions of the Arctic really seizes less deer while other regional deer become more for their life style of traveling. By and large, without weighing the whole condition, the article’s claim that the diminishing deer is caused only by weather warming is wholly unconvincing.
All in all, on the basis of several ineligible, doubtful, even estranged assumptions, the author arrives at such a conclusion unscrupulously and imprudently, nay isnot the process of analysis full-developed and well-attested. To make me accepted without suspicion, the author should have to demonstrate that the data of weather warming in recent years. In supplementary a series of evidence must be manifested such as the overall condition of ice bridges, and whether the responds from hunter is true or not. Only if the argument is shown up as I have dissected in minute detail and gradually unfolded reasonably, this argument becomes more than just outwardly captivated.
没限时,写得比较久 ==++ 去年我也来过,后来改期了,今年再来,欢迎大家批评~~ |
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