ARGUMENT38 鱼油感冒药

mondiaUID: 193825

38.The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.

"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."

------------------------------------
To prevent colds and lower absenteeism, the speaker's advice of daily use of the Ichthaid may be an efficient way. However, before examining alternative explanations for the course of absenteeism and identifying the exact effect of this nutritional supplement, we can not accept the suggestion and put it in practice at all.

Firstly, we should find out whether cold are factually the frequent reason for absences from school and work. That is to say, maybe people feel it such an easy way to get permitted for absences, and they become inclined to use getting a cold for a request to take a party or enjoy a movie at the work or study time. Maybe, among the absences, there is only a few due to a heavy cold, as not suitable for keeping on working or studying. Therefore, to determine whether we need to offer a way to prevent colds in our city eventually, we need to collect more information about cold sufferers absent from schools and workplaces. The survey of the absenteeism in East Meria may be helpful as well.

Secondly, the effect of fish and Ichthaid for preventing cold is still open to question. As the speaker tries to point out, in East Meria, the dwellers eat more fish and have less cold, however, there may be no causal relationship there. Possibly the consumption of large quantity of oranges, fruit abundant in Vitamin C, is the exact reason for less cold sufferers there. In fact, the speaker only tells us that people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for cold in that city, in this way, we can not arrive the conclusion logically that there is less people have cold there. On our common knowledge, catching a light cold, people always choose to have some medicine for treatment at home for heavy work or busy study. In a word, the possibility of being more cold sufferers in East Meria still exist, which should exclude before we accept the speaker’s conclusion.

Even if one accepts the effect of fish mentioned above, we still do not know whether the nutritional supplement have the same function. Derived from fish oil, it may have no effective matter existed only in other part of fish. In this way, it will be an expensive cost, but of nothing helpful for preventing cold.  

Turn view back, there may other cause of the cold happen in West Meria. The bad quality of air may be a great reason somehow. Additionally, we should examine our citizens’ manner of life, to find out whether some unhealthy habits like smoking, drinking or irritant food eating play a important role there.

For so many questions not been answered, we can not choose to accept the advice unquestionably. After all, we have no right to suggest our taxpayers something useless or unnecessarily.

anniejinanUID: 202029

我也刚刚写了这个题目，一起研究一下吧:)
（让砖头来得更猛烈些吧）

------题目------
The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.
'An innovative treatment that prohas come to our attention mises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism.'
------正文------
To author of the argument advises to take Ichthaid to prevent colds and lower absenteeism. To support the reasoning, the author illustrates East Meria to establish a relationship between fish consumption and the chance of catching a cold. The author also claims that colds are major causes for absenteeism and lchthaid is derived from fish oil as a good way to prevent cold and lower absenteeism. However, the argument is based on a serious of unsubstantiated assumptions making it unconvincing, which suffers from several logical flaws.

First of all, the author cites the people in East Meria consume a lot of fish and they visit doctor a few times for the treatment of colds. However, visiting doctor once or twice per year for colds doesn't mean they doesn't catch cold often, since cold is such a common disease that many can be solved through drinking some medicine at home. In addition, even if the people in East Meria do not catch cold often, it's possible that other reasons other than the high consumption of fish are the cause of relatively low chance of colds. For instance, the temperature in East Meria might be pretty high that it's not easy for people to catch cold, people in East Meria like to participate in sports, or people have other diet habits that help to prevent colds.

Secondly, even if the colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school or work, it's possible that people only prefer it as an excuse. Perhaps there aren’t many colds actually happening, but people who have overslept or want to slip away from school or work prefer to find an excuse for their absences. As a result, catching a cold becomes their first choice, thus the relationship between catching cold and absenteeism is still open to debate.

Thirdly, even if granted that eating fish can prevent cold as well as lower the rate of absence, Ichthaid derived from fish oil is not equal to fish. It's possible that fish oil function far less than a whole fish to prevent colds, needless to say Ichthaid that is derived from fish oil. The author must first prove that Ichthaid is as effective as fish in preventing colds before recommending people taking it.

To sum up, the argument is not logically sound due to the flaws committed in the argument. To be more persuasive, the author should establish a more accurate cause-effect relationship between the high consumption of fish less chance of catching a cold.  What's more, the author should also provide more detailed evidence to show that cold is not merely an excuse for absence but rather the actual cause. And effectiveness of Ichthaid should be proved  as well.

boyjimUID: 125249

大家可以去看看zhizhi昨天写的这篇文章~大概在五六页吧~嘿嘿嘿~觉得思路比较清晰~