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The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.
'An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism.'
In this argument, the arguer concludes that everyone of West Meria should take Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism. To substantiate the claim, the arguer proclaims that colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work. In addition, the arguer cites the result of a recent study that the consumption of fish can prevent from suffering from colds. While this argument has some merit, it is vulnerable i several critical flaws that seriously undermine the line of reasoning.
First, in the very inception of the argument the arguer commits a fallacy of False Analogy ------it is not necessary to conclude that the way to East Meria people, in terms of consumption of fish, that can avoid colds will be as effective as to West Meria people. We do not know that what the relationship between the two groups of people is; we do not know that what is the difference of environment in the two places; we do not know what is the distinction between the way they live; We do not know more. However, all those we do not know can contribute a lot to the effect that the consumption of fish could bring to us. Therefore it is imperil to act the same treatment on the West Meria people as on the East Meria people.
Second, due to failure of establishing a causal relationship between the consumption of fish and the immunity of colds, the assumption that it is because of the consumption of fish that people in East Meria visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds is unwarranted. We cannot rule out the possibility that it is the other substance rather than the fish that makes those people immune to colds and the consumption of fish deserves nothing but only a concurrency.
Granted that with the help of fish consumption, the East Meria people can defeat the colds, there is nowhere more ridiculous than claming that by the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil people in West Meria can immune to colds. Common sense tells us that fish oil does not equal to fish, especially consumption of fish. It is quite likely that East Meria people should appreciate the fish skin, bones, eyes, or scale, or the overall function of those above rather than the oil, that created by human beings, in preventing colds. So before people are aware of both the positive and negative consequences of the Ichthaid, it is not wise to take it.
Finally, the arguer’s announcement that the alleged effective way could lower absenteeism is lack of consideration. We cannot deny that colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work; however we cannot ensure that without the seemingly perfect reason----- colds hardly can emerge another one, such as headache, diarrhea and the like. What we should do is not prevent people from suffering the illness but eliminate the effect it brings to us.
To sum up, this argument is not persuasive as it stands for its vague evidence about the relation between the colds and fish; the argument is not vigorous as it appears for its illogical deduction from East to West Meria; the argument is not clear as it intends to be for its unfavorable connection between colds and absenteeism. To make it more convincing, the arguer would have to prove that the effectiveness of Ichthaid in curing colds, the causal relationship among fish, cold and absenteeism. |
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