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电梯直达

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发表于 2005-4-7 16:00:12 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of local newspaper from a citizen of the state of Impecunia .
“Two years ago our neighboring state , Lucria ,began a state lottery to supplement tax revenue for education and public health. Today , Lucria spends more per pupil than we do , and Lucria’s public health program treats far more people than our state’s program does .If we were to establish a state lottery like the one in Lucria , the profit could be used to improve our educational system and public health program . The new lottery would doubtless be successful , because a survey conducted in our capital city concludes that citizens of Impecunia already spend an average of $50 per person per year on gambling . ”

In this argument , the author concludes that the new lottery would doubtlessly be successful . By giving two plausible reasons , the author want to prove the claim . One is that two years ago , the neighboring state Lucria ,began a state lottery to supplement tax revenues for education ,and now it spends more per pupil than we do ,also does in the public health program . The other is a survey which conducted in the capital city concludes that citizens of Im. already spend an average of $50 per person per year on gambling .In several respects , however ,the evidence lends little credible support on the argument .

First of all , this argument lends no support to demonstrate the fact that Lucria now spends more than Im. per pupil. Maybe Lucria has always located a high priority on education ;or perhaps it has always had more funds than Im. to spend on their programs , including education .And the author did not cite any information about how the lottery’s revenue does great benefits on education and also did not conclude how much funds ,which are for the education’s program . Maybe Lucria’s education program only benefit a small potion of the revenue ,and most of it is from the district government or even from the multinational endowments . Lacking clearly evidence to rule out other factors , such as above ,we cannot be seriously in the claim which by establishing a similar lottery , Im. would improve its education program .

Similarly , the argument also lends no support to the fact that the citizens of Lucria had benefited from the lottery on their health program .Maybe people the Lucria are younger than Im. and they have a good health ,caused from the day-day exercises ,than Im. which has the people that all are office worker and can merely do some special exercises. So Im’s citizens need more measurement of health care .Without considering and ruling out these possibilities and other feasible explanations ,the author could not convince us that Im.’s health program would benefit from the lottery done by Lucria last year indeed .

Moreover , the example cited two years ago has little comparability between Lucria and Im. It is not so small that we can overlook the distinction on all kinds of things in both cities . Maybe in this years myriad of education programs have brought into effect , also have done on health program . Without accurate evidence to rule out these factors or more , the author cannot prevail on us the necessary of the lottery .

Finally , the other reason ,cited by the arguer , that Im.’s residents spend $50 per capita on gambling each year lends little support to the argument . Admittedly , this statistic just a mounts to some evidence of the interest on shaking the elbows along the Im’s residents . However there is little relationship between the enjoyment of gambling and lottery .Or maybe they will have less money on lottery after the investment on gambling .Maybe the citizens just regard the gambling as one of their entertainment in weekends .So we cannot find any trend to buy the lottery from the author’s conclusion at all .

In sum , the editorial has not convinced us that the lottery will be quite profitable and will serve to improve Im.’s education program and health program . To better strengthen the argument ,the arguer should provide more information about the degree of Im.s programs on both education and health before and after the execution of lottery . And to better evaluate this claim , the author should find out the relationship between gambling and lottery of the citizens in Im.