argument 45, 有个疑问请问大家，尤其是斑竹

枫丹UID: 166492

Argument45: 445 words
有个疑问，如何才是深入的论述呢？我把能想到的可能性，及其后果列出来就够了吗？
还是应该再做什么工作呢？

The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
'Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.'

In the argument, the arguer presents the conclusion that the declination of deer population is caused by the change of migration pattern which is the result of global warming trends. However, the notion is markedly undermined by scant evidences and dubious assumption. Hence it is unconvincing.

To begin with, the arguer fails to consider other explanations for the declination of deer population. Although the alternation of age-old migration patter is a possible excuse for this phenomenon, alternative possibility should not be ruled out. For example, perhaps, the large need of this kind of deer in marked drive hunter to capture more of them which directly leads to this declination. It is also perhaps that the change of climate enhance the proliferation of other animals which eat the food as same as these deer, so the less of food result in decrease of this kind of deer. What it more, it is even may be the case that these deer are plagued by infectious disease or other illnesses and the rate of death becomes higher. Without ruling out all of these possibilities the conclusion that it is the change of migration pattern cause declination of deer population is groundless.

Second problem involves that the arguer unfairly assumes that the temperature is typify of the world round trends of global warming. Yet this argument does not provide sufficient evidence to show that this are is influenced by global warning and the ice is melting. It is perhaps that special geographic situation or other climate conditions such as the flux of air in this place make this areas escape from the effect of global warming and the temperature is not increased but declined. Moreover, perhaps, even if temperature is influenced by global warming, the role played by it maybe not obvious enough to make ice melt. If it is the case, the arguer can not get to the conclusion that global warming will change migration pattern and decrease the deer population at last.

Last, one should consider that whether the deer population is really declined, however just according to the reports of hungers, can not provide sufficient evidence for this assumption. Common sense tells us, moving scope of these hungers is limited by weather and terrain situation. So it is may be that the deer living in the areas is hard to be found because of the change of moving routs and living areas, and hungers have no idea about this alternation. If they are the cases, it is hasty to get the conclusion that the population of deer is decreasing.

In sum, the argument is not convinced as it stands. To improve, the arguer should provide more information about the real change of the temperature of this area. In addition the practical number of deer should be surveyed and other factors may influencing deer’s population should also be considered.

imjasonUID: 176604

好问，呵呵，枫丹是个动脑筋的MM哦
我也想知道……

Henrry_FFUID: 165187

https://bbs.gter.net/showthread.php?s=&threadid=203735
那3篇文献有谈到论证的深入性问题，可以作为一个参考：）

枫丹UID: 166492

多谢,昨天晚上研究了两篇了,今天进行第三篇

枫丹UID: 166492

最初由 Henrry_FF 发布
[B]https://bbs.gter.net/showthread.php?s=&threadid=203735
那3篇文献有谈到论证的深入性问题，可以作为一个参考：） [/B]

能否帮忙看一下开头,是不是可以呢?