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Argument 117
The author recommended to the manager of VM stores to increase the stock of home office machines and the stock of office supplies at all VM stores, as the work-at-home trend is coming. He verified the trend by a survey reported that over 70% respondents expressed that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. An he further deduced that with these stock changes, their office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of their stores. Although it appeared convincing, actually we could not omit that there were sever阿l logical flaws hidden behind the deduction.
As the threshold matter, the author failed to provide the numbers of the people who received the survey and the geographical location of their company to convince us the representative of the survey. Perhaps, the population who accepted the survey came from the same group--belong to the same company, or in the same district, thereby their answers could not verify the work-at-homo trend.
Secondly, even assuming that the trend actually exist in this city, the author could not support the recommendation to increase both the stock of home office machines and stock of office supplies at all VM stores. Firstly, although the people are asked to do more work at home, it does not mean that there will be an increasing demand of office machines. Common sense tells us people will not easily spend money on the things that it is expensive while the demand of it is not so much. The office machines are not cheap, so people will take a serious consideration to make a decision to buy them. Secondly, even if the people actually the machines, they will not need them all. And more importantly, the demands of these machines do not average in different store. Thus, there is no evidence to support the necessarily to increase the stock of the machines and supplies at all VM stores.
Thirdly, the author made a unpersuasive conclusion that with these increasing stock, there department will become the most profitable component of our stores. Firstly, no evidences supported that all the stock of the department will be sold out totally. Secondly, profit is the difference of the revenue and the cost. The author failed to provide the total cost of all these stock, and even if they are sold out, we could not justify that they are profitable, let alone being the most profitable component of their stores.
Generally speaking, the author could not convince us the recommendation of the increasing stock of office machines and office supplies to be profitable for the store. They need several evidences as follows: firstly, the verification of the work-at-home; secondly, the demand of the machines and supplies is increasing at all VM stores accompanied with the trend; thirdly, the cost of the things remains flat or reduced that the profitability is appearing.
[ Last edited by staralways on 2005-8-9 at 12:35 ] |
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