argument73 lease car 麻烦帮忙看看，论证点走题否？有批必复！！！

kolu_renUID: 158196

73The following appeared in a memo from a manager of a car dealership.

"Ten years ago, long-term car leasing became available in our country of Mohilia as an alternative to outright car ownership, and leasing has steadily risen in popularity. For each of the last five years, the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number buying new cars. The average age of cars driven in Mohilia is six years; hence, if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year, it is likely that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned, cars. Therefore, we should change the focus of our business from selling cars to leasing them."

The memo of manager proposed to change selling cars to leasing them according to the demand trend of Mohilia. His statements seem grounded, but if we take a careful scrutiny we will find that there are some logical fallacies in his statements.

Firstly, author mentioned people who lease new cars are more than the ones buy new cars in the past five years as the reason to change their business, but I cannot agree with his view. On the one hand, there are no data to support his argument, such as the detail number of people leasing cars surpassed, the percentage of such people in the local popularity, the growing number of each year in Mohilia. Without these crucial information about the market in leasing new car, it is hasty to make the decision. On the other hand, we have no idea about the cost and benefit of leasing cars in comparison to selling cars. Although we may see prosperity in the cars leasing market, whether it is profitable is still open to question. So if the manager hopes to persuade his supervisor into the car leasing area, more detail information should be collected to support his point of view.

Secondly, the hypothesis that majority of drivers adopt to lease cars, from the market situation of this year is still questionable. Admittedly, the number of people leasing new cars steadily risen in the continuous five years, but the assertion of majority driver will choose to lease car in light of the pass is unfounded. Author did not provide the number of drivers in Mohilia who lease cars, so his hypothesis cannot be accepted.

Last but not least, the suggestion of changing the business focus from selling cars to leasing them is not a proper occasion for the manager to enter this field. As mentioned by author that the average time span of cars is six years and after last five years the boom of leasing cars market, how many drivers remained not leasing and eager to do so? How many shares will this car dealer gains from this mature market? How can they survive in this harshly competitive field? The answers to these questions determine the next action of this business.

In a word, a detailed analysis report on the market situation including the demands of their customers, data of market contribution and benefits contrast to cost will be great use to make the finale decision.

kolu_renUID: 158196

怎么没人动手啊？我先上来顶一下！

蚱蜢舟UID: 2116052

我看了一下，觉得这篇不是那么好写明白的呀．语言我就不多说了，不错，就论点我谈谈我的看法吧．我觉得你第一和第三都还不错，第二点弱了点。　
我认为这篇的错误有以下几个：
１－十年前出现的租车，而他只谈了后五年在上涨，但有没有可能后五年就算一直在涨也比前五年低呢？
２－租车和卖车利润的问题，你比较了，我觉得很好
３－没有证据证明原来买车的人会去租车，更没有证据证明，长久看租车的人觉得租车不便和有辆车真好而动心想买车
４－就算租车市场什么都好，但不代表卖车的涉足一定能有经验，另外还有市场饱和和竞争等问题需要考虑．

呵呵，总体来说，写的不错，继续努力，经常互改哦

[ Last edited by 蚱蜢舟 on 2005-8-12 at 11:58 ]

kolu_renUID: 158196

收到！
我在写的时候也觉得对于B2没什么话可说。
让我想想，在改改！
谢谢你得点评！;P

kolu_renUID: 158196

The memo of manager proposed to change selling cars to leasing them according to the demand trend of Mohilia. His statements seem grounded, but if we take a careful scrutiny we will find that there are some logical fallacies in his statements.

Firstly, author mentioned people who lease new cars are more than the ones buy new cars in the past five years as the reason to change their business, but I cannot agree with his view. On the one hand, there are no data to support his argument, such as the detail number of people leasing cars surpassed, the percentage of such people in the local popularity, the growing number of each year in Mohilia. Without these crucial information about the market in leasing new car, it is hasty to make the decision. On the other hand, we have no idea about the cost and benefit of leasing cars in comparison to selling cars. Although we may see prosperity in the cars leasing market, whether it is profitable is still open to question. So if the manager hopes to persuade his superior into the car leasing area, more detail information should be collected to support his point of view.

Secondly, the hypothesis that majority of drivers adopt to lease cars instead of own individual cars, from the market situation of this year is still questionable. Admittedly, the number of people leasing new cars steadily risen in the continuous five years, but the assertion of majority driver will choose to lease car, not individually owned car in light of the pass is unfounded. Except the trade of brand new cars and leasing new cars, we cannot overlook the role of lemon car mrket. It is deniable that large differences in price between the new cars and the second-hand ones. Price is a attractive and important factor in the transaction in the car purchase, so people may be inclined to have their own cars. In that way, the author's hypothesis faces to challenge, more market analysis will be effecient in convincing his superior.
Last but not least, the suggestion of changing the business focus from selling cars to leasing them is not a proper occasion for the manager to enter this field. As mentioned by author that the average time span of cars is six years and after last five years the boom of leasing cars market, how many drivers remained not leasing and eager to do so? How many shares will this car dealer gains from this mature market? How can they survive in this harshly competitive field? The answers to these questions determine the next action of this business.

In a word, a detailed analysis report on the market situation including the demands of their customers, data of market contribution and benefits contrast to cost will be great use to make the final decision.

dinddind2003UID: 196353

The memo of manager proposed to change selling cars to leasing them according to the demand trend of Mohilia. His statements seem grounded, but if we take a careful scrutiny we will find that there are some logical fallacies in his statements.

Firstly, author mentioned people who lease new cars are more than the ones buy new cars in the past five years as the reason to change their business, but I cannot agree with his view. On the one hand, there are no data to support his argument, such as the detail number of people leasing cars surpassed, the percentage of such people in the local popularity, the growing number of each year in Mohilia. Without these crucial information about the market in leasing new car, it is hasty to make the decision.(这里可以分段了，同时第一句可以点明错误是不能说明租车的人具体多到什么程度) On the other hand, we have no idea about the cost and benefit of leasing cars in comparison to selling cars. Although we may see prosperity in the cars leasing market, whether it is profitable is still open to question. So if the manager hopes to persuade his superior into the car leasing area, more detail information should be collected to support his point of view.（后面这几句做一段很好）

Secondly, the hypothesis that majority of drivers adopt to lease cars instead of own individual cars, from the market situation of this year is still questionable. Admittedly, the number of people leasing new cars steadily risen in the continuous five years, but the assertion of majority driver will choose to lease car, not individually owned car in light of the pass is unfounded. Except the trade of brand new cars and leasing new cars, we cannot overlook the role of lemon car market. It is deniable that large differences in price between the new cars and the second-hand ones. Price is a attractive and important factor in the transaction in the car purchase, so people may be inclined to have their own cars. In that way, the author's hypothesis faces to challenge, more market analysis will be effecient in convincing his superior.（毫不客气的说，这段我真没看懂，第一我不清楚你要说哪有矛盾，是五年的增长历史不能说明人们不买车了吗？如果是那就把第一句话重写明白点，然后你列举的可能性好像是两个吧，第一个是二手车，这个可能性不大好，因为文章并没有说买车包括二手的，只是在提租和买的关系，保守点还是不要把这个买理解成还包括二手，第二个例子我没懂）
Last but not least, the suggestion of changing the business focus from selling cars to leasing them is not a proper occasion for the manager to enter this field. As mentioned by author that the average time span of cars is six years and after last five years the boom of leasing cars market, how many drivers remained not leasing and eager to do so? How many shares will this car dealer gains from this mature market? How can they survive in this harshly competitive field? The answers to these questions determine the next action of this business.（还是觉得你开始是要说把重点转向出租是不合理的，后面列举了一系列疑问，这样你开头可以这样写 The author still ignore many questions which are needed to make the decision that the business should focus from selling cars to leasing them. ）

In a word, a detailed analysis report on the market situation including the demands of their customers, data of market contribution and benefits contrast to cost will be great use to make the final decision.

总之以后 在开头最好能点明什么是不能说明什么的，而且两者要直接点的关系。
比如“五年的增长历史不能说明人们不买车了”,就比“五年的增长历史不能说明我们不能把中心放到出租上来”要好。

还要加油，看看范文，看看它们是怎么点明错误的。

呵呵，批得狠了点，别生气啊，其实我是想快点看你进步

kolu_renUID: 158196

dinddind2003:
我已经看了你的点评，我原来是针对majority of drivers adopt to lease cars中的majority进行反驳的，想要说明并没有证据证明已经是大多数司机都采用了租车，但后来看了别人的文章，觉得似乎二手车市场也是个没提到的问题，通过二手车市场我只是想说，可能有些人会去买二手车，以这样的形式反驳majority driver lease cars。你觉得呢？
B3你分析得相当有道理！看来我的段首的概括还是要精炼点，我再去学学！

总之，谢谢你的点评！放心啦？！要是这么容易生气怎么考GRE呢？
我会更加努力的！;)

也愿你能一帆风顺！:victory:

dinddind2003UID: 196353

恩，你的想法很好啊，只是可能表达的不是很明显，把二手车作为一种和出租竞争的可能性是合理的。不错