Argument57 v6 8.22

dinddind2003UID: 196353

Argument57  第1篇 让砖头来得更猛烈些吧！
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作者：寄托家园作文版普通用户     共用时间：29分27秒     386 words
从2005年7月22日12时44分到2005年7月22日13时29分
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The following appeared in a newsletter on nutrition and health.
'Although the multimineral Zorba pill was designed as a simple dietary supplement, a study of first-time ulcer patients who took Zorba suggests that Zorba actually helps prevent ulcers. The study showed that only 25 percent of those ulcer patients who took Zorba under a doctor's direction developed new ulcers, compared to a 75 percent recurrence rate among ulcer patients who did not take Zorba. Clearly, then, Zorba will be highly effective in preventing recurrent ulcers and if health experts inform the general public of this fact, many first-time ulcers can be prevented as well.'
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In this argument the author claims that Zorba helps prevent ulcers and many first-time ulcers can be prevented if health experts inform this assumption，to reach the assertion the author mainly points out that: only a small number of the patients who take Zorba develop new ulcers. However, there are several problems with the assertion.

First, the fact that only 25 percent of those ulcers who took Zorba under a doctor's direction developed new ulcers compared to 75 percent without a doctor's direction developed new ulcers and the fact that Zorba help prevent ulcers have no necessarily casual relationship. It is possible that in the first group the doctor also advise his patients other ways to prevent ulcer. Thus, without considering other different possibilities that may influence the consequence of the contrast, the author can not conclude that Zorba does work.

Secondly, a survey of the first-time ulcer patients can not indicate that Zorba can prevent ulcer to all the patients. It is possible that to a patient who have had ulcer many times Zorba can not work. Thus lacking the evidence that the condition of the first-time ulcer patients can stand for the general condition of all types of the patients, the author can not convince me that Zorba is useful for all the patients.

Finally, granted that Zorba is useful to prevent ulcer, no evidence could prove that if health experts inform this fact, many first-time ulcers can be prevented. It is possible that the patient do not trust the fact, so they do not use it, it is also possible that there are other better ways to prevent ulcer and the patients prefer them. Thus, lacking the evidence that most patients would like to use Zorba, the author can not simply conclude that many first-time ulcers can be prevented.

In sum, to role out the problems mentioned above to better reach the conclusion, the author need clearer evidence including following: there areno other different possibilities that may influence the consequence of the contrast between who take Zorba and who do not; evidence that the condition of the first-time ulcer patients can stand for the general condition of all types of the patients; the evidence can indicate that most patients would like to use Zorba for treating.