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Argument 147
------题目------
The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
------正文------
The speaker, in this argument, concludes that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. However, a careful analysis will reveal how groundless the argument is.
First of all, the speaker just simply points out that investing such games that provide life like graphics is able to reverse the declined sales trend in the past two years, however providing little evidence to testify it. Admittedly, lifelike graphics is one of the most important features of video games, other characteristics such as story-line, character design and sound effect are also play a significant role in the success of popularization of video games. Some professional video-game developers divide features of video games into two kinds—internal features and external features. Their experiences tell that internal characteristics such as the design and originality generally are the essential factor to motivate customers and occupy the market. On the contrary, each video game can achieve high-level external features such as lifelike graphics and sound effect easily if only investing enough money. By failing to consider these factors, the speaker’s argument is greatly weakened.
In addition, even assuming the feature of lifelike graphic is enough to make success, without the support of up-to date computes, this kind of video games can hardly run smoothly. It is possible that players like Whirlwind video games very much, however most of computers cannot operate such video games without update part of hardware of the computers. Maybe most players will not accept such investment. As a common sense, the competition of games market increased dramatically in recent several years and each kind of video games has thousands of substitutes. That is to say, as a reasonable customer, he or she probably is inclined to choose other games rather than update hardware.
Finally, the evidence of this argument is not sufficient to convince that people 10 to 25 years old will also prefer such kind of games. The speaker only mention a survey made by Whirlwind, while any other important information is not given. To prove this assumption, far more information is needed to indicate whether the survey’s respondents are representative of the overall group of video-game players. Moreover, the purchase ability of this age-group is doubted. Common sense tells us most player of this age-group especially the one below 18 years old. It is entirely possible that it is player’s parents not players themselves to decide the purchase of video games. Without these possibilities ruled out, hardly can we accept the conclusion.
To sum up, the argument is not reasonable as it states. To consolidate this argument, more specific information about the survey made by Whirlwind should be given. Meanwhile, the speaker should provide more convincing evidence to demonstrate that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months.
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[ Last edited by staralways on 2005-8-27 at 11:25 ] |
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