Argument147 第一篇Argu 期待砖头！

azaleaUID: 196122

Argument147（2005年2-9月总频47次）
The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."

1调查的有效性
2like play!=will buy
3advertising campaign与sale trend reverse未必有因果关系
4increase!=drastically
（此外，10-25这个有没有问题啊 我觉得没错的 不过看些文章指出了这里有问题
请大家给点意见）


The argument concludes that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months based on an unauthorized survey and an advertising campaign. After a careful scrutiny, we can find several flaws in this argument.

First of all, the result of the survey seems unreliable. The author does not provide any information about who carried out this survey, how many people were investigated or whether the samples are representative of the whole population. If a small investigation company with a group of non-specialists implemented the survey, they might not pay attention to the number and the representativeness of the people being surveyed. If they only investigated only a small group of people who share the same preferences of games, say if the surveyees are from the same club, the result of the survey would be invalid.

Secondly, even if the survey is valid and the result is reliable, the preference of games that provide lifelike graphics will not necessarily lead to a sale increase. Since playing such games requires the most up-to-date computers, game players may not be willing to pay such a high cost to play them, let alone buy them, though they have a preference to this kind of games.   

In addition, even if the game players want to buy this kind of games, they are very likely to buy them from other companies rather than Whirlwind. The author may argue that they have carried out an extensive advertising campaign which will promote the sales. However, it may not be the case when considering the buyers' preference. If other game companies offer lower prices, better service, or more kinds of games than Whirlwind, buyers will probably turn to the companies possessing such advantages, regardless of whether Whirlwind games are advertised or not.

Finally, even if the sale of Whirlwind video games indeed increases, it may not necessarily increase dramatically in the next few months. Since fierce competition are very likely to exist among Whirlwind and other games companies, players will choose different companies instead of sticking to one, or they may shift company from time to time. Such competition will drag Whirlwind back from a dramatic sale increase. Also, sale increase may not be realized in the near future, since it takes time for players to accept a new kind of games.

In conclusion, the argument is ruined with the above fallacies. The author should include more information to substantiate the validity of the survey, a clear preference of players to buy such games and a detailed comparison between Whirlwind and its competing companies if he/she wants to make a sound argument. Also, the author should avoid such over-exaggerated words like 'dramatically' in persuading readers.

65min 453words

happy_shirleyUID: 2155516

The argument concludes that the sales of Whirlwind video games are （is）likely to increase dramatically in the next few months based on an unauthorized survey and an advertising campaign. After a careful scrutiny, we can （在英语中也可以这样用吗?比较像汉语的论证语气，”我们发现“）find several flaws in this argument.

First of all, the result of the survey seems unreliable (我觉得说这个调查缺乏权威性更好一些). The author does not provide any information about who carried out this survey, how many people were investigated or whether the samples are representative of the whole population. If a small investigation company with a group of non-specialists implemented  (carrying out) the survey, they might not pay attention to the number and the representativeness of the people being surveyed. If they only investigated only (两个only？) a small group of people who share the same preferences of games, say if the surveyees （^_^，我写的时候也不知道该用什么词，好像没有这个单词，我同学说用interviewee比较多） are from the same club, the result of the survey would be invalid.

Secondly, even if the survey is valid and the result is reliable, the preference of games that provide lifelike graphics will not necessarily lead to a sale increase. Since playing such games requires the most up-to-date computers, game players may not be willing to pay such a high cost to play them, let alone buy them, though they have a preference to this kind of games.   （观点很清楚）

In addition, even if the game players want to buy this kind of games, they are very likely to buy them from other companies rather than Whirlwind. The author may argue that they have carried (广告还没有做吧)out an extensive advertising campaign which will promote the sales. However, it may not be the case when considering the buyers' preference. If other game companies offer lower prices, better service, or more kinds of games than Whirlwind, buyers will probably turn to the companies possessing such advantages, regardless of whether Whirlwind games are advertised or not.

Finally, even if the sale of Whirlwind video games indeed increases, it may not necessarily increase dramatically in the next few months.:victory: Since fierce competition are very likely to exist among Whirlwind and other games companies, players will might choose different companies instead of sticking to one, or they may shift company from time to time. （我觉得这个地方的理由换一下，他们可能会被不同的公司吸引，选择不同品牌，所有人都选择W的可能性并不大）Such competition will drag Whirlwind back from a dramatic sale increase. Also, sale increase may not be realized in the near future, since it takes time for players to accept a new kind of games.
这四个论证的理由都很好！我很喜欢！每一个理由都说明了argument的不成立！

In conclusion, the argument is ruined with the above fallacies. :victory:The author should include more information to substantiate the validity of the survey, a clear preference of players to buy such games and a detailed comparison between Whirlwind and its competing companies if he/she wants to make a sound argument. Also, the author should avoid such over-exaggerated words like 'dramatically' in persuading readers.

azaleaUID: 196122

这个是我收到的第一块砖头呢 谢谢组长！ 我一会回拍 :P

azaleaUID: 196122

The argument concludes that the sales of Whirlwind video games are （is）[这里我的考虑是前面用的sales做主语 是不是复数呢？]likely to increase dramatically in the next few months based on an unauthorized survey and an advertising campaign. After a careful scrutiny, we can （在英语中也可以这样用吗?比较像汉语的论证语气，”我们发现“）[恩恩 说的是了 我写得时候也觉得不爽 不过怎么改呢 the argument does contain several flaws?]find several flaws in this argument.

First of all, the result of the survey seems unreliable (我觉得说这个调查缺乏权威性更好一些)[哦 我觉得意思差不多吧 因为unauthorized第一段用过 所以这里我换了个词]. The author does not provide any information about who carried out this survey, how many people were investigated or whether the samples are representative of the whole population. If a small investigation company with a group of non-specialists implemented  (carrying out) the survey, they might not pay attention to the number and the representativeness of the people being surveyed. If they only investigated only (两个only？)[我错了 汗。。太想强调了] a small group of people who share the same preferences of games, say if the surveyees （^_^，我写的时候也不知道该用什么词，好像没有这个单词，我同学说用interviewee比较多）[恩恩 确实没这个词 不过大家都明白意思的 不知道考试时能不能这样造词 interviewee我也有考虑过 但题目没说是面谈还是问卷 所以不好说了] are from the same club, the result of the survey would be invalid.

Secondly, even if the survey is valid and the result is reliable, the preference of games that provide lifelike graphics will not necessarily lead to a sale increase. Since playing such games requires the most up-to-date computers, game players may not be willing to pay such a high cost to play them, let alone buy them, though they have a preference to this kind of games.   （观点很清楚）[谢谢:P]

In addition, even if the game players want to buy this kind of games, they are very likely to buy them from other companies rather than Whirlwind. The author may argue that they have carried (广告还没有做吧)[看下题目Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign  注意动词是has]out an extensive advertising campaign which will promote the sales. However, it may not be the case when considering the buyers' preference. If other game companies offer lower prices, better service, or more kinds of games than Whirlwind, buyers will probably turn to the companies possessing such advantages, regardless of whether Whirlwind games are advertised or not.

Finally, even if the sale of Whirlwind video games indeed increases, it may not necessarily increase dramatically in the next few months. Since fierce competition are very likely to exist among Whirlwind and other games companies, players will might choose different companies instead of sticking to one, or they may shift company from time to time. （我觉得这个地方的理由换一下，他们可能会被不同的公司吸引，选择不同品牌，所有人都选择W的可能性并不大）[恩 我也有想到的 没写清楚:(]Such competition will drag Whirlwind back from a dramatic sale increase. Also, sale increase may not be realized in the near future, since it takes time for players to accept a new kind of games.
这四个论证的理由都很好！我很喜欢！每一个理由都说明了argument的不成立！
[hehe 再次谢谢:P我比较喜欢用递进式的论证]
In conclusion, the argument is ruined with the above fallacies. The author should include more information to substantiate the validity of the survey, a clear preference of players to buy such games and a detailed comparison between Whirlwind and its competing companies if he/she wants to make a sound argument. Also, the author should avoid such over-exaggerated words like 'dramatically' in persuading readers.

加一UID: 2168628

相当精彩的文章，组长改的也很到位。
真不好意思本来应该我先改的，可是今天是在太忙了，现在才上来，真不好意思下次一定改正。
谈一谈关于Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games.这句话的问题。
事实上软件游戏的主要消费群体确实就是10--25岁的人，但argument只是谈到了Whirlwind对他们展开广告攻势，而没有再进一步介绍情况。实际上10多岁的孩子和20多岁的青年对游戏的偏好差异很大，几乎没有交叉点。比如前一阵子热销的恐怖游戏《寂静岭》，画面超级好，但是小孩子们几乎没法玩，太血腥了。再比如说当年很出名的《美少女梦工厂3》的画面也很经典，但大多数20岁以上的玩家，特别是男性玩家不会玩这个，因为根本耐不住性子一点一点养育一个小女孩。所以说10-25岁电子游戏消费群体的消费差异还是很大的。
Argument说针对这个10--25岁群体做广告，那么，我个人认为，几乎和没做一样。