（推荐新手看这个帖）我的AW笔记本（内有老外280的分析，资料基本上看这个就够了）

zhangheng1020UID：2130513

Argument131
by  果小冻 (小小)  
https://bbs.gter.net/viewthre ... ghlight=argument131
The following appeared in an environmental newsletter published in Tria Island.
'The marine sanctuary on Tria Island was established to protect certain marine mammals. Its regulations ban dumping and offshore oil drilling within 20 miles of Tria, but fishing is not banned. Currently many fish populations in Tria's waters are declining, a situation blamed on pollution. In contrast, the marine sanctuary on Omni Island has regulations that ban dumping, offshore oil drilling, and fishing within 10 miles of Omni and Omni reports no significant decline in its fish populations. Clearly, the decline in fish populations in Tria's waters is the result of overfishing, not pollution. Therefore, the best way to restore Tria's fish populations and to protect all of Tria's marine wildlife is to abandon our regulations and adopt those of Omni.'
提纲：
1，        没有证据可以说明鱼群的过度捕捞造成了鱼群下降，没有提供具体的捕捞数量和渔民数量,没有禁止捕捞并不代表就会直接造成捕鱼量的上升.另外，鱼群的数量减少不可能会仅仅因为捕捞的
2，        没有资料表明鱼群的下降造成和污染没有关系。应该提供具体有关T周围海域的水质量的资料
3，        两个地区的水情况以及鱼群的种类都不一样，所以不能简单的类推。另外还有其他的解决方法的，所以也不可以认定一样得使用限制捕捞
正文
In this argument, when discussing the exact reason for the decline of fish population in Tria’s waters, the author rules out the possibility of pollution while treats overfishing as the only and crucial cause. What he or she relies on is just a unpersuasive comparison, thus the suggestions made by the author cannot be taken simply.

First of all, the author fails to establish the causal relationship between not banning fishing and decrease in fish population. The author blames the not banning fishing for the declining of fish population in Tria’s water, more according to his or her own objective inference. The author should provide us some detailed and authentic statistic for the number of the fishermen, as well as the amount of fish fished by them. Perhaps there are only a few fishermen fishing in this area because of their own preference or tradition generated from the olds. Or perhaps the kinds of fishes in Tria’s water are very scant and not easy for selling, and thus fishermen have no interest in this area. Without evidence we cannot be convinced that not banning fishing means the declining of fish population. In addition, fishing alone cannot decrease fish population sharply. Even if the not banning fishing results in overfishing, the author cannot contribute it to be the only reason for the declining of fish population. We should be informed the rate of reproduce of fish, as well as that of the fishing by fishermen. A careful comparison should be given before coming to the conclusion that only the overfishing leads to the declining of fish population,

Furthermore, the author rules out the possibility of pollution as one of the reasons for the declining of fish population. Since ban dumping and offshore oil drilling with 20 miles does not mean that the water is less polluted. The author needs to take scientific survey of the condition of Tria’s water and then offers us enough persuasive data. It is entirely possible that the sources of pollution might be beyond 20 miles. We cannot be convinced that people have now completely stopped dumping because of the ban, perhaps they dump just beyond 20 miles and the waste maybe delivered to the Tria. Or perhaps the air might be polluted thus the solution of air in the water cause the decrease of fish population. Without consider the possibilities talked above, the author cannot rule out the pollution.

Moreover, the author makes a insufficient comparison between Tria and Omni and then suggests that the former should learn from the latter in order to stop the decline of fish population. First, the water condition of the two areas may be different. It is entirely possible that there are many kinds of fishes in Omni within 10 miles, while there is litter fish in Tria within 10 miles. This is rather probable because different quality of water will result in different living environment for fish, and therefore leads to the different quantity of fish. Second, the species in Omni might be more adaptive than those of Tria. The more species of fish, the more fishermen will prefer to fish in the area. If there are only a few specie of fish in Tria, the fishermen may not be likely to fish here, since the profits cannot be insured. Third, the author refuses to consider other useful ways to protect fish before calling for adopting the regulations of Omni. In short, without considering the difference of the two areas, the successful methods used in Omni cannot be applied in Tria.

In a sum, the author should collect more information of the water condition in Tria and the species of fish there. Also the difference between Omni and Tria should be revealed clearly before making any comparisons.

zhangheng1020UID：2130513

argument147
https://bbs.gter.net/viewthre ... ge=1&highlight=
The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
'Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months.'

提纲：
1广告和调查的人群有偏差
2，玩家不一定会买，因为游戏还有其他因素
3，整个市场因素，以及WV的经营问题

The argument concludes that in the next few months the sales of WV video games are likely to increase dramatically because of their advertising campaign receivers, who are assumed to be  most likely to play video games. Though reasonable at the first glance, however, after carefully analyzing the conclusion is rather questionable.

First of all, the author asserts that people between 10 to 25 are those most interested in playing video games, while giving no useful evidence at all. The survey on which this argument relies is completely open to doubt, as it provides no information about the people who took this survey at all. Their ages, their incomes are all under the table, thus the authority of this survey is rather doubtful. It is entirely possible that these people are out of 10 to 25, as a result, their preference cannot be applied to the advertising receivers. Because of this deadly difference between survey and advertising, the assertion which the author makes is completely a fantasy. Unless we are provided information about the ages and other important conditions of the survey and advertising receivers, we should not make any hasty conclusion.

Furthermore, even if people between 10 to 25 are most likely to play video games, it did not follow that they will buy the products. First, besides the most important feature, there are also other crucial factors that determine whether a game is popular or not, such as the theme, the type of the game. Without interesting and striking themes, the games will not have any value though providing lifelike graphics. Second, since the lifelike graphics need the most up-to-date computers, 10 to 25 years old players could not possibly afford that since most of them are students. Perhaps they will prefer to borrow the games from friends rather than buying by themselves. Last but not the least, even if these people are willing and having the ability to buy, it does mean that they will of course choose the products of WV. The author fails to provide any information about other companies whose products have the same features with WV. Perhaps the buyers have many alternatives, thus no one can insure they will doubtlessly choose WV. In short, we cannot take it for granted that people will surely buy the products provided by WV without any persuasive evidence.

Moreover, the author should provide us some information about the whole market of the video games. It is probably that this market is not so good as a whole. Or perhaps there is a economic recession at recent time. Accordingly, people do not have the ability to afford such kind of video games, since their fundamental life cannot be insured at all. These games are completely luxury items for them. In addition, the reason why the sales of WV video games have declined over the past two years should be provided also. It is quite possible that the quality of their games is very poor. Due to all talked above, although the new video games introduced by WV are rather striking, they will not succeed in the market either.

In a sum, given the positive answers above, advertising campaign alone cannot bring WV increase in sales. The author should provide more certain evidences about the specific features of the game, as well as the conditions of the buyers and the whole game market.

zhangheng1020UID：2130513

ARGUMENT 137 -
https://bbs.gter.net/viewthre ... ge=1&highlight=
The following appeared in an editorial in the Mason City newspaper.

"At present, Mason City residents seldom use the nearby Mason River for any kind of recreational activity, even though surveys of the region's residents consistently rank water sports (swimming, fishing, and boating) as a favorite form of recreation. Since there have been complaints about the quality of the water in the river, residents must be avoiding the river because they think that it is not clean enough. But that situation is about to change: the agency responsible for rivers in our region has announced plans to clean up Mason River. Therefore, recreational use of the river is likely to increase, so the Mason City council will need to increase its budget for improvements to the publicly owned lands along the Mason River."
正文：

Based on several announced plans, the author suggests that the Mason City council should increase its budget for improvements to the publicly owned lands along the river. However, since the efficiency of the plans and the prospect of this river are all not open to doubt, the suggestion is not persuasive at all.

First of all, no evidence shows that agency of Mason City is able to handle the problems of the river and make it clean again. We need to know something about the condition of this river, since how bad it is polluted should be first known before being cleaning up. In addition, without providing the detailed contents of these plans, we cannot grant these plans will surly do a good job. The author needs to inform us the measures will be used in the process of cleaning up the river, the people who are in charge of this project and so on. Unless the plans are really fit for the conditions of Mason River, we cannot be so optimist about its good effect. Whether the efficiency of agency is high or not also remains unknown to us. The author needs to offer us some credible information, which may prove the work ability of this agency. In short, the author should not depend on the agency without consideration.

Furthermore, the author should not grant that the recreational use of the river is likely to increase even if it can possibly be recovered to the original status. First, the survey just tells us that residents preferred water sports, while it does not mean that people chose Mason River as the place where they did sports. Whether Mason River is suitable for the water sports remains doubtful, and therefore the author needs to provide more detailed information. For swimming, the author should provide information about the width and depth of this river. For fishing, we need to know the amount of fish in this river. For boating, we need to know the overall climate of this city and the appearance along the river. Also, the author should conduct a representative and scientific survey in order to acknowledge the attitudes of the residents towards Mason River. Since whether they are willing to rank water sports in this river is completely suspect. In short, whether the recreational use of Mason River will increase or not depends on myriads of factors besides the condition of water.

Moreover, no evidence shows that the publicly owned lands need improvements. The author should provide us information about the condition of the publicly owned lands along the Mason River in the present, including the facilities they offer, how many people they may admit and the services provided by the shops near the river. In addition, the author needs to tell us how much should the government put into the improvements, since the ability of economic ability cannot be out of consideration. Then, how much will the cleaned Mason River bring to us? The author needs to compare the receiving and the expending before giving suggestion.

In sum, without taking consideration of the situations of Mason River, the prospect of recreational activity on the river, and the work efficiency of the agency, the author should not making suggestion to government just relying on his or her own assumptions. Instead, the author needs to provide more information about the conditions of the past and the present.

zhangheng1020UID：2130513

ARGUMENT 170 -
https://bbs.gter.net/viewthre ... ghlight=argument170
For the past five years, consumers in California have been willing to pay twice as much for oysters from the northeastern Atlantic Coast as for Gulf Coast oysters. This trend began shortly after harmful bacteria were found in a few raw Gulf Coast oysters. But scientists have now devised a process for killing the bacteria. Once consumers are made aware of the increased safety of Gulf Coast oysters, they are likely to be willing to pay as much for Gulf Coast as for northeastern Atlantic Coast oysters, and greater profits for Gulf Coast oyster producers will follow.

Outline:
1 the discovery of harmful bacteria in Gulf oyster is not responsible for it lower price
2 there is no evidence that customers are willing to pay as much for Gulf oysters as Atlantic oysters when they notice the increased safety of them
3 profit. The arguer cannot arbitrarily predict that Gulf oysters' producers would surely gain greater profits in the foreseeable future.
部分参考《北美GRE范文精讲》
In this argument, the arguer concludes that by installing the bacteria-killing process the security of Gulf oyster will increase and consumers are likely to pay the same amount of money for Gulf oysters as Atlantic oysters. And the arguer further predict that, for the aware of the increased safety of Gulf oyster, the producers will obtain greater profits in the futher. At first glance, the argument seems sound, but after close scrutiny I find it suffers severe criticism as fellows.

To begin with, the argument concludes based on a known correlation between the discovery of bacteria in Gulf oyster and the comparatively lower price of them that the former is attributable, at least partly, to the latter. Yet the correlation alone amounts to scant evidence of the claimed cause-and-effect relationship. It is highly possible that the quality of Atlantic oyster including the taste, size, level of nutrition and so forth, significantly surpass that of Gulf oyster. For that matter, perhaps the inconvenient transportation of Atlantic oyster was equally responsible for its higher price. Moreover, the arguer has not accounted for the possibility that there is a unique and beneficial component for human health in Atlantic oyster, and for that, customers shifted their inclinations from Gulf oyster to Atlantic oyster. If this is the case, then the arguer's conclusion would lack any merit whatsoever.

Second, the arguer assumes too hastily that if the consumers have noticed the increased safety of Gulf oysters they would certainly be willing to pay as much for them as Atlantic oysters. However, this is not necessarily so. The feasibility of the practicality of the anti-bacteria process is open to doubt. It appears that the Gulf producers are reluctant to complicate the process of production by applying the device. Besides, perhaps the safety process damaged the essential nutrition contained in Gulf oysters while killing the harmful bacteria. Therefore, consumers might not pay a premium for the lower nutritional Gulf oysters. Moreover, consider the habits of oysters' consumers, perhaps it is the five years-a long time that they entrenched their tastes for Atlantic oysters, which cannot be swiched to Gulf oysters in short term. Thus, without accounting for these scenarios, the arguer could not draw any firm conclusions based on this dubious assumption.

Third, even if the customers are willing to pay as much for Gulf oysters as Atlantic oysters, the arguer's prediction that Gulf oysters' producers will obtain greater profits is still unwarranted. We all know that profit is a factor of not only  cost but also revenue. Even assuming that the safety process of Gulf oysters would bring more revenues to their producers, however, the increase of producing cost which resulted from the expense on the anti-bacteria process might, to certain degrees, offset the additional income. Further, perhaps their competitors-other oyster manufacturers will decrease their oysters' price for augmenting the market of their products. Thus, Gulf oyster producers would earn minor profits at best, or even none after the adjustment for the inflation.

In sum, the arguer fails to provide key evidence needed to support the assertions. To strengthen it, the arguer must provide stronger evidence that it is the discovery of harmful bacteria that caused the decrease of Gulf oyster's price, and that customers are willing to pay the same bills for Gulf oysters when their producers apply the anti-bacteria process to the production. To better evaluate this argument I would also need to know that the safety process ensures Gulf oyster producers' greater profits in the foreseeable future, as the arguer predicts.

[ 本帖最后由 zhangheng1020 于 2006-3-18 19:44 编辑 ]

zhangheng1020UID：2130513

TOPIC: ARGUMENT140 -
https://bbs.gter.net/viewthre ... ghlight=argument140

The following appeared in a report of the Committee on Faculty Promotions and Salaries at Elm City University.

"During her seventeen years as a professor of botany, Professor Thomas has proved herself to be well worth her annual salary of $50,000. Her classes are among the largest at the university, demonstrating her popularity among students. Moreover, the money she has brought to the university in research grants has exceeded her salary in each of the last two years. Therefore, in consideration of Professor Thomas' demonstrated teaching and research abilities, we recommend that she receive a $10,000 raise and a promotion to Department Chairperson; without such a raise and promotion, we fear that Professor Thomas will leave Elm City University for another college."
WORDS: 598          TIME: 上午 12:30:00          DATE: 2006-2-24

Having unduly relied on a series of fallacious reasoning without considering other possible alternatives, the arguer unfairly believes that without giving Professor Thomas a raise and promotion, she will leave Elm City University for another college. However, a careful scrutiny reveals several illogical points as follows, which, to my viewpoint, make the argument unfound and dubious.

First and foremost, the argument is not so cogent as it assumes the stated correlation between Professor Thomas's teaching ability and the popularity of her class.  In fact, some other possibilities should be taken into consideration. A quite probable possibility is that as her classes are the required ones in Elm City University, students of a large amount must go and have it. For example, given that her class is mathematic, not only required but also difficult, then how could we draw the conclusion that it is her teaching ability that actually contributes to her classes' popularity? In addition, it is also possible that she always give students who going to her classes a higher score comparing to other teachers, so it is natural that her classes can make such a attraction. In that case, before a investigation to the students of her class about the real reason for going to her class, the evidence sited in the argument could not convince me.

Second, the mere fact that she brought more money to the university in research which exceeded her salary in the last two years could not convince us that she holds good research ability. What was the actual amount of the money she brought to her university? How much would the total exceed her salary if she only had a 10,000-dollar salary that year, 1 dollar or 10,000 dollars? Was that money a large amount compared to other teachers in the same university? We just don’t know. Further, we might also ask: what is the situation before the two years? Or what will it be in the following years? That is to say, will she, Professor Thomas, continue to bring a lager amount of money than her salary to the Elm City University. Accordingly, if these missing information were well presented and in the arguer’s favor, the argument would be much sounder than it currently is.

In addition, even if we concede that Professor Thomas have great teaching and research abilities, however, no absolutely evidence indicating that she would like to leave Elm City University is provided. And what is worse, whether she is satisfying her salary and position or not are not mentioned either. She may, in fact, love her job very much be quite content with her job rather than going for other universities. The scenario mentioned above, if true, would serve to undermine the credibility of what the arguer claims about Professor Thomas' research ability.

Last but not least, even if Professor Thomas want a raise of her salary and also a promotion, will 10,000 dollars be enough, or will the Department Chairperson is what she would like to be? Perhaps, she is like to have a rise about 20,000 dollars, how can the solution mentioned in the argument prevent Professor Thomas from leaving for other universities? The arguer fails to considerate Professor Thomas own idea about her salary rise and promotion, and consequently make his conclusion rather untenable and presumptuous.

In conclusion, a more complete understanding about Professor Thomas intent as well as  further investigation about her real ability and other factors must be taken into account. The arguer fails to do that, and thus make the argument not cogent and well- well-articulated as it stands.

zhangheng1020UID：2130513

Argument163
https://bbs.gter.net/viewthre ... ge=1&highlight=
The following is taken from the editorial section of the local newspaper in Rockingham.
'In order to save a considerable amount of money, Rockingham's century-old town hall should be torn down and replaced by the larger and more energy-efficient building that some citizens have proposed. The old town hall is too small to comfortably accommodate the number of people who are employed by the town. In addition, it is very costly to heat the old hall in winter and cool it in summer. The new, larger building would be more energy efficient, costing less per square foot to heat and cool than the old hall. Furthermore, it would be possible to rent out some of the space in the new building, thereby generating income for the town of Rockingham.'
提纲：
1，        关于供暖和降温的费用，要提供新旧大堂的比较数据，新的每平方的费用低不代表总费用低，可能更高。即使老大堂费用高，也可以通过其他途径解决，如更换设备等。
2，        盖新楼的费用问题，另外也没有证据可以保证一定会有人来租用
3，        推翻老楼可能会带来其他负面问题，如历史文化价值，如旅游资源等
正文：
In this argument, the author proposes to replace the century-old town hall by the larger and more energy-efficient building. Without sufficient evidence, the author grants that the new town hall will surely save a considerable amount of money and even bring in more income for the town. Before taking this proposal, we need to analyze more carefully.

First of all, the author mentions that the new building will be more energy-efficient and as a result save more money. Before coming to this conclusion, we need to be provided detailed information about the efficiency of equipments for heating and cooling in both the old town hall and the new one, including the time needed for heating or cooling and so forth. It is entirely possible that the new building will need more time, since it owns a much more space in all. In addition, though the cost of per square foot to heat and cool for the new building is less than the old one, it does not mean that the total money will be saved. After all, the new one is larger and therefore maybe it will cost more for the whole building. Even if the efficiency of the old town hall is lower, it maybe caused by the poor devices dedicated to heating and cooling. Rather than tearing down the old building, we may refer to high quality of heating and cooling facilities. There is no doubt that it is a more reasonable choice. In short, more scientific comparison for the heating and cooling efficiency should be made between the old building and the new one.

Furthermore, the author fails to consider the cost of setting up the new town hall and also other fees needed for supporting it. Maybe it will cost so much for a new building that the cost saved in the heating and cooling process will be completely surpassed. And it will contrarily increase the overall disbursement of the town. Accordingly, the exact cost of setting up the new building should be revealed and then the author needs to compare it to the cost saved. Additionally, the author provides no evidence to convince us that the space of the new building will be rent out successfully. It is entirely possible that the rental is too high that few people are able to afford it. Or perhaps the environment around the new building is not so pleasure and the public facilities are disappointing, thus people will not surely be interested in it. Consequently, the author cannot be so optimist with the new building since it may cost more money, let alone to bring in more income.

Moreover, the author should not be blind to other important meaning of the old town hall, such as the history and culture value. Maybe this old town hall has a history of more than hundreds of years and even owns some special values. For example, some famous men used to work or live in this old building or some important incidents happened in it. Of course all these may largely increase the value of this old building. Or perhaps the old building is one of the places of interest in this town and it stimulates the production of tourism. Then tearing down the old building will doubtlessly curtail the tourists visiting Rockingham town annually. Thus the author should provide sufficient information of the old town hall before making any proposal, or the overall income of the town may be decreased.

In a sum, the author should provide us more information about the conditions of the old building, including the quality of the heating and cooling facility, as well as the history and culture meanings. What’s more, we should be informed the cost of setting up a new building and the detailed information about it also needed.

zhangheng1020UID：2130513

Argument174
https://bbs.gter.net/viewthre ... ge=1&highlight=

The following recommendation was made by the president and administrative staff of Grove College, a private institution, to the college's governing committee.
'We recommend that Grove College preserve its century-old tradition of all-female education rather than admit men into its programs. It is true that a majority of faculty members voted in favor of coeducation, arguing that it would encourage more students to apply to Grove. But eighty percent of the students responding to a survey conducted by the student government wanted the school to remain all female, and over half of the alumni who answered a separate survey also opposed coeducation. Keeping the college all-female, therefore, will improve morale among students and convince alumni to keep supporting the college financially.'

提纲：
1，        调查的可信度：首先，接受调查的人的总数；其次，学生可能没有说出心里话。
2，        没有提供任何数据表明联合学校会降低士气，并且也不能说明校友会停止投资。首先，没有提供另一半校友的意见；另外，是否投资也有其他很多因素决定
3，        即使会有部分校友会停止投资，但是教师的意见也不能忽视，应该比较扩大申请带来的收入和减少投资
4，        总结
正文
In this argument, the author insists that the college should be kept all-female, as it is a wise and efficient way to improving morale among students and convincing the financially support from the alumni. Unfortunately, those surveys are neither persuasive nor credible, on which the argument rests.

First of all, the author mentions the attitudes of students according to a survey conducted by the student government. However, before relying on this survey, the author needs to rule out our suspect as follows. Firstly, the author fails to present the total number of the students responding to the survey. Only providing the data of eight percent cannot make any sense at all. Perhaps the whole number of these students is so small that the result of this survey cannot represent the opinion of the majority of students. Secondly, whether the responders have put out the thoughts inside themselves or not is rather questionable. Since students in Grove College are completely females, these girls may be too sky to express their authentic wills. How this survey is conducted should be informed to us. As it is entirely possible that it is done face to face, and therefore no one can insure its credibility. Consequently, the author should give a more scientific survey to reveal the opinions of students in this college.

Furthermore, there is no causal relation between the coeducation and the improvement of the moral of students. The author fails to provide any evidence to prove this assertion. Before comparing the difference between the ordinary college and Grove College in the aspect of moral, the author had better not to come to that unwarranted conclusion. In addition, the author should not conclude that the alumni will stop the investment because of the coeducation. Though half of the alumni oppose this kind of education, the author needs to offer the opinions on the remainder. Even if these alumni have different ideas towards the coeducation, it does not follows that they will stop supporting the college. These are many other factors those have influence on their decisions. For example, they may consider about their reputations. Perhaps they are afraid of losing the good reputation among people inside or outside this college by stopping supporting the college. In short, the argument has not successfully prove the bad effect of the coeducation.

Moreover, even if some of the alumni will choose to stop supporting the college, it should be the excuse of this argument to overlook the opinions from a majority of faculty members. It is the faculty members who best know how to obtain the ultimate of education, thus their views should  be emphasized by the college. Additionally, now that coeducation will encourage more students to apply to Grove, maybe the increased tuition fees will outstrip the stopped support from the alumni. Thus, the author should make a careful comparison between the two. In short, the author should not refuse to consider the opinions from the faculty members.

In a sum, the argument should take consideration of all the opinion from people connected with the college. Also the surveys should be conducted efficiently and representatively.

[ 本帖最后由 zhangheng1020 于 2006-3-18 19:36 编辑 ]

zhangheng1020UID：2130513

argument200
https://bbs.gter.net/viewthre ... ge=1&highlight=
Statistics collected from dentists indicate that three times more men than women faint while visiting the dentist. This evidence suggests that men are more likely to be distressed about having dental work done than women are. Thus, dentists who advertise to attract patients should target the male consumer and emphasize both the effectiveness of their anesthetic techniques and the sensitivity of their staff to nervous or suffering patients.
提纲：
1，      男人不一定比女人晕的多。总数不知道。 另外，也许这些病人中男人的病情严重的多
2，        男人也不一定比女人更加紧张。也许女人有其他严重的症状。或者女人索性害怕的不去看病了。
3，        广告的效果值得怀疑。首先，病人也不一定很关心麻醉。其次，技术问题更重要。最后，没有考虑女病人的情况。

Based on an incredible statistic, the author assumes people's attitudes towards visiting dentist. In his or her opinion, the reasonable advertisement, which may attract the most patients, should lay more emphasis on the male consumers. However, after carefully analyzing, both the assumption and the suggestion are all open to doubt.

To begin with, the author concludes that men faint more times than women while visiting the dentist, relying on unpersuasive statistic. We cannot help asking, when the statistic is derived? Ten years before or just currently? Since the author fails to mention the time of getting the data, we are really doubtful about its credibility. In addition, the total number of the men and that of the women, who received this survey, are completely under the table. It is entirely possible that the number of men is far more than that of women. And therefore, it is natural that more men faint while visiting the dentist than women. Also, the author fails to provide us the conditions of these patients. Perhaps the average problems of men were more serious than those of women. In short, the author has not provided any detailed and representative information about patients in this survey before coming to the conclusion.

Furthermore, no evidence indicates that men are more likely to be distressed about having dental work done than women are. Since faintness is not the only symptoms when visiting the dentist, the author should consider more conditions. Maybe there are more serious symptoms in women than in men other than the faintness problem, psychological, displacement disquiets and impedes the effectiveness of dentist's work. Worse off, perhaps those women, who are seriously afraid of having dental work done, refused to visit the dentist. They prefer to stay at home , taking some pills by themselves. Thus, the author should not assume the attitudes of men and women towards visiting the dentist, even though the statistic were true.

Moreover, the effectiveness of the advertisement is rather questionable, since what it emphasize are not surly the most critical factor in the dental work. First, no evidence shows that men’s faintness is due to the anesthetic techniques. Maybe they just dislike the environment or the scent of the room or just the strange smells. Or perhaps some of the characters of men, which are different from the women, caused their easier faintness, such as genes and so on. Second, the author fails to provide any information about patients’ opinions. Whether they are really concerning about the sensitivity of the staffs or not is completely open to doubt. Actually the most consequential thing is the experience of the staff and their working abilities. Additionally, the advertisement fails to consider about the conditions of the female patients. Maybe there are myriads of women patients who are afraid of visiting the dentist, and thus, attracting them is really crucial if the author wants to insure the effectiveness of the advertisement.

In sum, before giving suggestion about how to attracting more patients, the author should provide more detailed and scientific statistic about the conditions of men and women patients. In addition, we need to inform the exact attitudes of patients towards visiting the dentist, as well as the most important factor they concerning about.

[ 本帖最后由 zhangheng1020 于 2006-3-18 19:37 编辑 ]

zhangheng1020UID：2130513

argument220
https://bbs.gter.net/viewthre ... ghlight=argument220
------题目------
The following appeared in an article in a magazine for writers.
'A recent study showed that in describing a typical day's conversation, people make an average of 23 references to watching television and only 1 reference to reading fiction. This result suggests that, compared with the television industry, the publishing and bookselling industries are likely to decline in profitability. Therefore, people who wish to have careers as writers should acquire training and experience in writing for television rather than for print media.'
------正文------

In this argument, the author suggests that people who wish to have careers as writers should acquire training and experience in writing for television rather than for print media. However, based on unreliable result of the study and ungrounded assumptions, the conclusion made by author is unwarranted.

To begin with, the result of the study cannot be relied on. In order to get a correct result, the study should last for a long period. No detailed information about people involved in the study is offered, including the ages, sexes and professions. It is possible that the target of the study is just young people who are generally more interested in watching television than old ones. Or the target of the study is just conducted in a small area, which cannot represent the whole nation.

Secondly, even if the result of the study can be trusted, people prefer to watch television than read fiction does not imply that writers who write for television can earn more money than those for print media. People might be more interested in watching news programs or talk shows, but not situation comedies. Additionally, even if people like situation comedies, only good works can attracts their attention. Moreover, the number of people who watch television has no direct link to the income of the writers who write for television. In fact, the number of people who watch television is just related to the profit of television stations. It is television stations to buy situation comedies from directors and actors, who pay for the works of writers.

Thirdly, although more people prefer to watch television than reading fiction, no evidence shows that the publishing and bookselling industries are likely to decline in profitability. It is possible that although the percentage of people who read fictions decreases, the actual number of people reading fictions increases because the population increases. Thus more people buy fictions from bookstores than past. In addition, the publishing and bookselling industries do not just include selling fictions. There are also many other forms of publishes, such as scientific papers, textbooks, dictionaries, newspapers and so on. No evidence shows that the selling of those works will decrease also. And the average price per book may increase as the quality of the works is better than before. Thus, it is still possible for writers who write for print media to earn the same amount of money as those writers who write for television.

Last but not least, the income of a writer no matter writing for television or for the print media, is largely depends on the personal writing skills but not what careers they choose. For good works, directors would find the writers of them to revise to fit directors' requirement. Thus, it is not so important for a good writer to choose which career, but the inspiration and the skills have closer relationship with a writer's income.

In sum, taking into account all logical fallacies discussed above, the reasons used to support the conclusion cannot be relied on. To better evaluate the argument, the author should convince us that the result of the study is reliable and the income of the writers writing for print media is decreasing in the past few years.

zhangheng1020UID：2130513

ARGUMENT 216 –
https://bbs.gter.net/viewthre ... ge=1&highlight=
The following appeared in a magazine article about planning for retirement.

"Because of its spectacular natural beauty and consistent climate, Clearview should be a top choice for anyone seeking a place to retire. As a bonus, housing costs in Clearview have fallen significantly during the past year, and real estate taxes remain lower than those in neighboring towns. Nevertheless, Clearview's mayor promises many new programs to improve schools, streets, and public services. Retirees in Clearview can also expect excellent health care as they grow older, since the number of physicians in the area is far greater than the national average."
提纲：
1，        要证明适合退休人居住，还要提供其他更多的信息。
2，        关于房价问题，不一定低。
3，        关于市长的承诺问题，兑现的时间，另外考虑其他人的因素。
4，        医生的水平和数目无关。
Promising a pleasure living environment, fallen housing costs, excellent health care, as well as several public services, the author concludes that Clearview should be the top choice for living after retirement. However, lacking sufficient evidence and detailed analysis, all these seemingly attractive conditions are all unpersuasive to support the suggestion of the author.

To begin with, the spectacular natural beauty and consistent climate are not the single criteria for retirees to choose place to enjoy their afterlife days. Actually, there many such similar places and therefore Clearview may not attract the attention of old people just relying on these two characters. The author needs to provide information, which may reveal the special characters of Clearview, meeting the needs of old people. As to retirees, they are easier to feel lonely than those at work. Consequently, whether there are people at the similar ages or not is rather crucial to them. The author should provide information about residents in Clearview, including their ages, their interests and their daily plans. In addition, the author should make sure that social security there insured by the government. To persuade us, more detailed and representative information should be given, such as the number of police in guard, the rate of crimes over the recent years and so on. In short, the author should take consideration more about the characters of retirees and pay more attention to social security and agreeable neighborhood.

Furthermore, whether the retirees will succeed in buying houses in Clearview at a low price or not is rather open to doubt. The significantly fallen housing costs are based on bonus, but yet no evidence reveals that this policy also benefits those retirees of other places. Maybe only the local people or just those still at work deserve such bonus. The author should tell us the detailed content of this policy of housing costs. In addition, the author fails to provide the original cost of houses in Clearview. It is entirely possible that the housing costs there are still higher than other places though having fallen a lot. Thus, rather than the treads of housing costs, the author should provide us the exact prices of Clearview and other places during these years.

Moreover, mayor’s promises cannot be the strong evidence to further prove the suggestion of author. Just a promise, but no indeed persuasive plans, retirees will have numerous doubt. First, how long will this promise come into reality? It is entirely possible that all these attractive services will not be realized until after a long time. Ten years? As we all know, time is rather a crucial precious to old people. Thus, the author should provide detailed and persuasive plans about how to conduct this promise. Second, is the mayor able to determine the result? In fact, in order to improve schools, streets, and public services, there are many people should make their best efforts, such as the educational department, the financial department and so on. The author should provide information about all these certain departments and people.

The last but not the least, the great number of physicians in the area cannot represent the excellent health care. Though the number is greater than the national average, the work abilities of these physicians have not been mentioned at all. Maybe most of them are eliminated from other places. In short, the author should provide more credible information about their work abilities and their attitudes towards old people.

In sum, in order to persuade retirees, the author should know the characters of them and provide them the most attractive conditions of Clearview according to their preference. In addition, the author needs to offer the exact information about the costs of houses there rather than relying on his or her own assumptions. Also, the author should provide persuasive evidence to insure the promising good services.

zhangheng1020UID：2130513

.Argument228
https://bbs.gter.net/viewthre ... ghlight=argument228
The following appeared in a newsletter from a political organization.

"In order to promote economic growth in the city, city residents should vote 'yes' on the state government's proposal to build a new expressway linking the outlying suburbs directly to the city center. A direct link to the city center will enable downtown businesses to receive deliveries more frequently, so that downtown retailers will no longer run out of stock and city manufacturers will not be affected by shortages of materials. Booming businesses will attract qualified workers from all over the state, workers who will be able to take advantage of the new expressway to commute to work in our city. In addition to these advantages, hundreds of workers will be employed to build the expressway, further stimulating the local economy!"

翻译：
为促进本市的经济增长，市民应该对州政府关于建造直接连接郊区和市中心的新高速路的提案投赞成票。到市中心的直接连接将使中心商业区的货运更加频繁，从而中心区的零售商就不会再断货，市内的生产商也不会受到材料短缺的影响。繁荣的商业将会从整个州吸引合格的工人，工人可以利用新的高速路在本市上班。除了这些好处，上百的工人将被雇佣修筑这条道路，进一步促进地方经济。

**********************************************************
提纲
（1）零售商断货和生产商材料短缺可能另有原因，即使修了新高速路也不一定能解决。
（2）能有多少工人利用新的高速路上班值得怀疑，也许现在已经有高速路了，或者他们选择乘火车上班。此外，吸引工人还需要其它的方面，比如工资、待遇、环境。
（3）雇佣上百工人不一定能对促进地方经济起多少作用。

**********************************************************
字数：419 words
时间：30分钟
**********************************************************
正文
In this argument, the arguer’s suggestion that city residents should support to build a new expressway linking the outlying suburbs directly to the city center in order to promote economic growth suffers several serious flaws as discussed in the following. He overestimates the possible function of the new expressway to the local economy without strong evidence.

First of all, the arguer is too hasty to estimate the shortages of stock and materials problems will be resolved by building the new expressway because he fails to study the genuine reason for the problems. It is possible that downtown retailers do not have enough money to stock goods because they do not have ability to compete with large supermarkets. It is also possible that the city manufacturers have some faults in their management or lack of advertisements, which result their productions have no market and then they have no money to purchase materials. If so, even a new expressway is built, the problems still cannot be solved.

Secondly, the arguer fails to realize the fact that convenient traffic is not enough to attract qualified workers. As is known to everyone, when people choose their jobs, they will consider not only the traffic matter, but also the salary, work environment, job property, and the like. Thus, even the new expressway can provide convenient traffic, it is not certain to attract qualified workers. For example, many people may be reluctant to spend more than 1 hour on the way to company because it wastes not only time but also oil fee. Moreover, it is totally likely that workers are more prefer to go to work by railway rather than driving themselves. Even if they would drive themselves, how many people on earth can utilize the expressway is suspicious.

Last but not the least, whether to employ hundreds of workers can stimulate the local economy is open to doubt. To boom the local economy, many effects are needed, such as, to change the government's policies according to the actual conditions, to enforce the propaganda, and the like. Consequently, just depending on hundreds of job opportunities to boom the economy is too exaggerated.

To sum up, the arguer is too cursory to make the suggestion without performing deep study. To make his suggestion more convincing, he has to take the facets discussed above into account, that is, to survey the real reason of the shortage problems and to prove to build a new expressway is necessary and can help the stimulation of the local economy.

zhangheng1020UID：2130513

ARGUMENT239
https://bbs.gter.net/viewthre ... ghlight=argument239
"When the neighboring town of Williamsville adopted a curfew four months ago that made it illegal for persons under the age of 18 to loiter or idle in public places after 10 p.m., youth crime in Williamsville dropped by 27 percent during curfew hours. In Williamsville's town square, the area where its citizens were once most outraged at the high crime rate, not a single crime has been reported since the curfew was introduced. Therefore, to help reduce its own rising crime rate, the town of Dalton should adopt the same kind of curfew. A curfew that keeps young people at home late at night will surely control juvenile delinquency and protect minors from becoming victims of crime."

提纲：
1．        应不应该引进curfew的前提是宵禁对于减少犯罪率的有效性
2．        作者引用的证据不能证明宵禁的有效性，例如只用4个月的在W城镇的实践，时间太短没有说服力，还有只说明10点中以后的情况，且只是减少27％，这样完全有可能其她时间犯罪率反而高因为宵禁压制了人的自由
3．        作者没有证明W和D有可比性

It seems tempting to agree with the author's argument that the town of Dalton should adopt the curfew to help reduce its own rising crime rate based on the fact that the crime rate in Williamsville has been reduced by curfew. However, after close scrutiny, the statement is unpersuasive in the following aspects.

To begin with, whether the author's suggestion is beneficial to reduce the crime rate in Dalton depends on the effectiveness of curfew the effect on reducing crime rate. In order to prove this effect, the author cites the example of curfew on reducing crime rate in Williamsville just for four months, which is a relative short time to prove the effect of curfew. Moreover, the author provides no evidence to explain why the young crime rate just dropped by 27 percent but not a large percent only after 10 p.m. rather than other hours. It is entirely possible that crime rate before 10 p.m. will dramatically increase since the adoption of curfew. It is likely curfew that seriously results in more crime because to some extent, it presses the freedom if young people so that they become more outraged or rebellious to deliberately committed crime before curfew. Moreover, it is not unreasonable to argue the effect of curfew just based on the 4-month study, which seems a relative short time to prove the effect of curfew.

Moreover, the author makes a false analogy between the town of Dalton and Williamsville. Even though the curfew is effective to reduce the crime rate in Williamsville, it is entirely possible ineffective for Dalton because there is no evidence to prove that the crime rate in Dalton is mainly caused by the young people under the age of 18. Dalton may be an area centered with more colleges and universities where the population is largely the well-educated students so that the crime rate is somewhat relative slow. Therefore, the curfew is not likely to have little effect on reducing crime rate.

To sum up, in order to suggest the adoption of curfew, the author should provide more information to prove the effect of curfew on reducing crime rate in Williamsville. Moreover, the author should prove that the local conditions in both towns are the same, especially the cause of crime rate so that the crime rate in Dalton will be reduced after curfew.

zhangheng1020UID：2130513

全文完

shielUID：2140229

原帖由 zhangheng1020 于 2006-3-20 11:17 发表
我就不信这帖没人肯定~~~

无数的佩服!!
无数的支持!!!

LZ定有好成绩!!!!!!!!

shielUID：2140229

原帖由 zhangheng1020 于 2006-3-20 11:17 发表
我就不信这帖没人肯定~~~

无数的佩服!!
无数的支持!!!

LZ定有好成绩!!!!!!!!