Argument59 phoenix小队,jimmy,第3次A

jimmy.huangUID: 2120489

Argument59  
------题目------
The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper.
'According to the available medical records, the six worst worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years occurred in 1729, 1830, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. These were all years with heavy sunspot activity—that is, years when the Earth received significantly more solar energy than in normal years. People at particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun.'
------正文------
In the article above, the author urges that people at particular risk for the flu should avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun.  To support his conclusion, he cites the available medical records which show that the six worst worldwide flu epidemics occurred during the past 300 years when the Earth received significantly solar energy.  This reasoning seems logical at first glance.  However, as the following discussion shows, the author’s argument is not well supported by the evidence.

First of all, the available medical records are questionable.  Is 300 years long enough to represent the thousands years or even billions years of medical history.  Since our ancestor did not have written record of medical history, this 300 years' records naturally does not include the flu epidemics history which may happen in ancient age.  Even in the age when people keep medical record, it is possible that people file the worldwide flu epidemics history only as a regional flu epidemics record for the limited communication with other areas where the flu epidemics may also happen at the same time.

Secondly, the author assumes that the correlation between the heavy sunspot activity and worldwide flu epidemics is a cause and effect relationship, but he does not provide enough evidence to prove this assumption.  It is possible that when the sunspot had a heavy activity, there were no worldwide flu epidemics’ occurrences at all.  In addition, there are many alternative explanations for the worldwide flu epidemics’ occurrence.  For example, it may be the infection not the solar energy that causes the worldwide flu epidemics occurred.  Under the condition without enough medical equipment and appropriate treatment, people are not easy to recovery from the flu and the epidemics will quickly pass from person to person which may results in the worldwide flu epidemics.   It is also possible that the war and disaster trigger the flu to be a worldwide flu epidemic.  Without further information, we can not rule out those possibilities.

Thirdly, the suggestion given in this article is described in vague words.  What kind of people should be called people at particular risk for flu?  Is the one who has flu twice a year or the one who are older than 40 years?  And how long is the time which can be defined as prolonged?  Can one hour a day be a prolonged time?  That may leads some people exposing too much under Sun while some others may stay in the home too long, such as for whole month or whole year.

In sum, the recommendation is not well reasoned and supported.  To strengthen the argument the author must collect more detail available medical records and provide clear evidence that it is the sunspot activities which cause the worldwide flu epidemics.  To give a better suggestion for public, the author should deliver the message in a clearer way.

[ 本帖最后由 staralways 于 2006-2-16 10:09 编辑 ]

angelstarUID: 2162799

In the article above, the author urges that people at particular risk for the flu should avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun.  To support his conclusion, he cites the available medical records which show that the six worst worldwide flu epidemics occurred during the past 300 years when the Earth received significantly solar energy.  This reasoning seems logical at first glance.  However, as the following discussion shows, the author’s argument is not well supported by the evidence. [开头段简洁到位]

First of all, the available medical records are questionable.  Is 300 years long enough to represent the thousands years [thousands of years]or even billions years[billions of years] of [the] medical history.  Since our ancestor did not have written record of medical history, this 300 years' records naturally does not include the flu epidemics history which may happen in ancient age.  Even in the age when people keep medical record, it is possible that people file the worldwide flu epidemics history only as a regional flu epidemics record for the limited communication with other areas where the flu epidemics may also happen at the same time.[再加一句总结句效果会更好，如：Thus, so short a period isn't representive to the whole history.]

Secondly, the author assumes that the correlation between the heavy sunspot activity and worldwide flu epidemics is a cause-effect relationship, but he does not provide enough evidence to prove this assumption.  It is possible that when the sunspot had a heavy activity, there were no worldwide flu epidemics’ occurrences at all.  In addition, there are many alternative explanations for the worldwide flu epidemics’ occurrence.  For example, it may be the infection [but]not the solar energy that causes the worldwide flu epidemics [occurred可略].  Under the condition without enough medical equipment and appropriate treatment, people are not easy to recovery from the flu and the epidemics will quickly pass from person to person, which may results in the worldwide flu epidemics.   It is also possible that the war and disaster trigger the flu to be a worldwide flu epidemic.  Without further information, we can not rule out those possibilities.

Thirdly, the suggestion given in this article is described in vague words.  What kind of people should be called people at particular risk for flu?  Is the one who has flu twice a year or the one who are older than 40 years?  And how long is the time which can be defined as prolonged?  Can one hour a day be a prolonged time?  That may leads some people exposing too much under Sun while some others may stay in the home too long, such as for [a]whole month or [a]whole year.

In sum, the recommendation is not well reasoned and supported.  To strengthen the argument the author must collect more detail available medical records and provide clear evidence that it is the sunspot activities which cause the worldwide flu epidemics.  To give a better suggestion for public, the author should deliver the message in a clearer way.

Well done and Come on!