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翻译:
20年前Pine City建立了严格的法令来限制该市未来建造的高层建筑的数量。从那以后Pine City的平均房价显著上涨。和Pine City差不多同等规模的Chestnut City在过去20年中经历了和Pine City类似的房价上涨,但Chestnut City从未建立任何限制高层建筑的法令。因此限制建造高层建筑的法令对于平均房价没有影响。所以如果Maple City建立限制新的高层建筑的法令的话,这种法令不会影响平均房价。
提纲:
开头:根据两个城市的房价和laws的关系,作者得出两个论断一个是法令对房价没有影响,一个是M城也和他们一样如果限制法就没影响。错误。
1 错误前提。两个城市只说了大小相同,一个有法,一个没法,都涨房价不能说明法没有影响,因为还有其他因素的干扰。A 地理位置不同。C城不限制建楼,但是由于多数土地都是不适宜建楼,例如森林,湖波占很大面积,所以不限制也见不了楼,房价就会上涨。B 人口密度,经济发展不同。P城限制,楼少了,但经济发展快,并人口增加块,住房紧张就会提升房价。而 C城发展慢人口少,即使让他建楼也没有资金建,楼数不多而人数在逐渐增加所以房价高
2 即使两个城市可以说明law和房价没有关系,也不能说M城就和他们一样。因为M城的条件未知。他们只能说明这两个城市的情况,其他的都有关系。或者其他都没关系,但就M特殊。
3另外, M是考虑以后,而P和C城都在说20年前,和现在不能比较。要考虑多方面因素才能预见未来的房价的升降,更多的是M城自身的条件受法律的限制大还是小。
TOPIC:ARGUMENT 109 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Maple City newspaper.
"Twenty years ago Pine City established strict laws designed to limit the number of new buildings that could be constructed in the city. Since that time the average housing prices in Pine City have increased considerably. Chestnut City, which is about the same size as Pine City, has over the past twenty years experienced an increase in average housing prices similar to Pine City, but Chestnut City never established any laws that limit new building construction. So it is clear that laws limiting new construction have no effect on average housing prices. So if Maple City were to establish strict laws that limit new building construction, these laws will have no effect on average housing prices."
WORDS:495 TIME:0:30:00 DATE:2006-2-25
In this argument, the arguer get two conclusion on the base that two cities' relationship of laws and house prices. One conclusion is that the limiting laws have no relationships with the house prices, and the other is that Maple City may be similar as the two cities that the limiting law will have no effect on average housing prices. However, the two conclusion are ingrounded and the facts for them are not cogent for some reasons.
Firstly, the premise of the two facts is false. The two cities only have the same condition that they have the same size, and other important factor that may have close relationship with the housing price have not been concerned. One the one hand, the location difference of the two cities may be a interference for the conclusion. If Chestnut City locates in the place that do not fit for building,then even the people there are allowed to build , they may not build more houses for the city located in the natural place that most of its area are the lakes and forest. And the smally place have limited area that the housing price there may increased with the rising population, not because the laws has not influence on the price. On the other hand, the population sensity and the economical development level also are the factors that influence the price of houses. Pine City established strict laws and the new buildings are limited, but in that it is fast developed place and the population has rising so dramatically that the place can not satisfy the modern people, therefore the price of house increas accordingly.
Even if the two cities' housing prices have not been any influence of the laws, the conclusion that the Maple City may be similar as them that the these laws have no effect on housing price because the condition of Maple City is not mentioned. Whether being influenced or not ,Maple City should refer to its own conditions but not the other cities like the two. The two cities can only represent themselves, while other cities should base on different facts maybe all have been limited by laws and the prices decreases.
In additon, the fact that the arguer mentioned is the case that 20 years before, but the conclusion and prediction is for the future, therefore it is unconvincing. To anticipate the possibility of the future, we should at least compare the latest facts. The Maple City itselves may be different from the one 20 years before, not to say the other city that have unknown information to be referred.
In sum, it is not easy work to predict Maple City’s housing price because the details needed for analyzing and comparing is not just as few as the argument’s contents. What’s more important is the information of Maple City such as the population and location and economic level and so forth. Without these sound facts the conclusion will never be made. |
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