Argument6 第一次写，欢迎狂拍！

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT6 - The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.

"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."

提纲：
1.最近的jazz club在65英里外不表示C Note会独占市场。因为当地可能出现更多的jazz club 或者C Note与远处的jazz club相比没有足够多的优点。
2.昨夏举行的jazz festival有10,000多人参加不能说明jazz在Monreo流行，可能10,000人中大多数是外地人；几个著名jazz音乐人在Monroe居住也不能说明问题，可能Monroe适宜居住或者本地jazz不流行，没有人骚扰，图个安静;'Jazz Nightly'收听率最高不代表听众人数就很多，可能本地人不大爱听收音机，就算是'Jazz Nightly'的听众也不一定会去C Note。
3.全国性调查不一定适合Monroe，本地jazz fan可能在jazz消费上花钱很少。就算是一个典型的jazz fan，其在jazz上的消费又有多少是在jazz club上呢？

In the argument the arguer recommends that C Note--a jazz club--will inevitably earn money due to the following : the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away,jazz is extremely popular in Monroe and nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fans spends close to $1000 per year on jazz entertainment. This conclusion seems a logical one,however,I wonder whether they are convincing or could bear further analysis.
First of all,the arguer indicates that C Note club will dominate the whole local market of jazz entertainment. The argue fail to rule out the possibility that jazz fans in Monroe will go to the club 65 miles away even C Note is open,maybe C Note has no advantage compared to other jazz clubs.It is still possible that there will be several jazz clubs in Monroe.
In the second place, even if C Note can dominate the local market,it's profitablility is determinded by the population of jazz in Monroe.The arguer gives several evidences to justify his conclusion,but I wonder whether they could bear further analysis.Although over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer,these is no evidence shows that most of them are residents of Monroe,maybe most of them are guests outside Monroe.It is true that several famous jazz musicians live in Monroe,but it does not equal to jazz is popular in Monroe.Maybe Monroe is fit for living or there are less jazz fans so musicans can live quietely .That the high-rated radio program is 'Jazz Nightly' seems reasonable,however , the arguer fail to rule out the possibility that most residents merely listen to the radio or the 'Jazz Nightly' listeners will not go to jazz club.
A third problem with the argument is that the nationwide study maybe not suitable for Monroe.Maybe jazz fans in Monroe spend very less money than national average. Even a typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment, the money spend on jazz club maybe very little too,so there is no inevitability that jazz fans will spend much money on jazz club.
In sum, the applicant can not justify his/her conclusion on the basis of the evidence provided in the application.To bolster the argument,the arguer should provide better evidence that C Note has enough advantages compare with other jazz club,the approximate number of potential customers and the average money each customer will  spend on C Note.