argument147 已修改一次学着理清逻辑 FLY AW小组第一次作业 请大家指点 谢谢

exp03UID: 2158827

147The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
提纲：
1、        调查不能显示该产品将卖得好，问题没提对，没有可靠数据支持。
2、        年轻人不一定喜欢该类游戏，即使喜欢也买不起
3、        其他小逻辑错误a.销售业绩可能继续下滑b.硬件升级跟不上游戏进度c.可能有其他更有实力的公司竞争

字数：448 未限时

In this argument, the arguer recommends that the sales of Whirlwind video games will increase dramatically in the next few months. To substantiate the conclusion, the arguer claims that a resent survey suggests this trend and the company has done some actions to support the project. This argument is problematic for several reasons.

The major problem with this argument is that the conclusion reached in the survey is invalid and probably misleading. The survey only asked people who have been video-game players, not containing every kind of people. So the answer of the survey is not representational and useful. What is more, the question of the survey, what features the video-players most like, can not solve the problem—what kind of games will sale best. The argument confuses these two different questions, which is unwarranted. Therefore, the company can not get only valuable information from the survey to explore the market of more profits.

In the second place the fact tat Whirlwind Company introduces several lifelike graphics games to young people may not get the object they want to. For people in 10-25 years old are energetic and daring they may not want to play the games which should spend such a long time to complete one’s daily work with no stimulate. Additionally, the arguer do not tell us what responses of these people give out to the games, they probably feel lifelike graphics games are boring and unattractive. And even they really like to play these games they may not have enough money to afford the expensive most up-to-date computers because most of the young are students and children. If so, the action of making and introducing the games to young people must fail.

There are also some other unfavorable conditions to the company’s expanding program. While Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, the customers may not give attention to its products any more. Then the sales trend will go on decrease. The up grade of the hardware of the computer is another problem for the spread of the new games for the latest computer can not easily get. And if the games actually have many customers, other companies will compete with Whirlwind. With two years’ decline Whirlwind may not have enough strength to compete with big companies such as fewer software engineers and weakly advertising abilities.

As it stands, the argument is not well reasoned. To make it logically acceptable, the arguer would have to demonstrate that a lot of people are eagle to buy the new video games provided by the Whirlwind Company. But the arguer does not show only standard reason for the increase of the sales in the future.
:)

[ 本帖最后由 exp03 于 2006-5-19 09:18 编辑 ]

夜一UID: 2130338

In this argument, the arguer recommends that the sales of Whirlwind video games will increase dramatically in the next few months. To substantiate the conclusion, the arguer claims that a resent survey suggests this trend and the company has done some actions to support the project. This argument is problematic for several reasons.

The major problem with this argument is that the conclusion reached in the survey is invalid and probably misleading.按照我个人的理解，这样的句子作为中心句不是太漂亮，光说调查不可信，比不上说这调查得不到想要的结果，最好把具体的东西摆出来，切合原题 The survey only asked people who have been video-game players, not containing every kind of people. 这应该不是主要矛盾，而且电玩调查当然只调查玩家，还是不要这样吹毛求疵的好So the answer of the survey is not representational and useful. 如果这是从上面那句话推出来的，那就是你的逻辑漏洞了What is more, the question of the survey, what features the video-players most like, can not solve the problem—what kind of games will sale best.这才是本段真正应该重点论证的地方 The argument confuses these two different questions, which is unwarranted. 这里应该把它怎样混淆的说清楚，举些例子，其他吸引消费者的要素，不外乎价格、游戏的激烈程度，还有音乐等等Therefore, the company can not get only valuable information from the survey to explore the market of more profits.没怎么读懂这句话，我想这里应该说，那家公司的产品只说了有生动的画面，别的啥也没提，不知道其他方面是否做得好，要做不好的话，画面在生动也没有用的

In the second place the fact tat Whirlwind Company introduces several lifelike graphics games to young people may not get the object they want to.这个中心句也与前一段有类似的问题，不够漂亮 For people in 10-25 years old are energetic and daring they may not want to play the games 这里是否不太通顺？是语法问题吧which should spend such a long time to complete one’s daily work with no stimulate.这就是你的不对了，杂志里都说了，这个年龄段的人最喜欢打游戏，别管他从哪里来的，就当作既成事实，关键问题不在这里，在于这帮喜欢打游戏的人是否会喜欢有生动画面的游戏 Additionally, the arguer do not tell us what responses of these people give out to the games, they probably feel lifelike graphics games are boring and unattractive.这里应该这么说吧，虽然调查里的人说喜欢生动画面，但没有说他们的年龄如何，所以不能知道10-25岁的人是否喜欢，他们很可能喜欢别的类型的游戏 And even they really like to play these games they may not have enough money to afford the expensive most up-to-date computers because most of the young are students and children.这里还是反过来，先说那游戏需要高性能计算机，所以年轻人可能买不起，最后加一句，就算他们真的想玩，怎么说呢，西方人的思维方式跟东方人不太一样，不按照顺序说的话他们不明白的 If so, the action of making and introducing the games to young people must fail.not efficient就可以了：）话不要说得太绝对

There are also some other unfavorable conditions to the company’s expanding program. While Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, the customers may not give attention to its products any more. 这就不好说了，人家毕竟在花大力气做广告Then the sales trend will go on decrease. The up grade of the hardware of the computer is another problem for the spread of the new games for the latest computer can not easily get. 这也不好说，有钱人总是有的，与其说不好弄到，不如说竞争不过物美价廉的其他产品And if the games actually have many customers, other companies will compete with Whirlwind. 这个。。要真的好卖，就不怕有竞争对手，而且这么说不等于承认了原题的结论么？还是不要这么干为好吧，真要说的话，就是该公司近期业绩不好可能就是因为对手强大，但也不知道人家成功的秘诀是什么，就靠一个产品是否能抢得回市场就值得怀疑，很可能跟人家的畅销产品没得比With two years’ decline Whirlwind may not have enough strength to compete with big companies such as fewer software engineers and weakly advertising abilities.这个貌似不是问题所在吧，那公司有没有资金跟它会不会盈利没有必然联系

As it stands, the argument is not well reasoned. To make it logically acceptable, the arguer would have to demonstrate that a lot of people are eagle to buy the new video games provided by the Whirlwind Company. But the arguer does not show only standard reason for the increase of the sales in the future.

总结一下，argument的任务是要抓原文的主要逻辑漏洞，因此需要先分析原文
在原文里，可以归纳为这样的思路：
1.调查说玩家喜欢生动的画面+该公司有该类产品=该产品好卖
2.该产品好卖+推广到喜欢电玩的10-25岁的人=这些人要来买
3.这些人要来买=业绩会上升
可以看出这是一个三步推段的思路，那么要破题的话，就要一一批掉这三步
1.产品有生动画面不等于好卖：其它市场因子
2.调查里的人喜欢不等于10-25岁的人喜欢，而且他们买不起
3.新的产品不一定能克服业绩的低潮：经营管理、销售渠道、竞争对手
另外，需要格外注意的是，不是主要问题所在，最好不要拿出来说，为了把时间集中在主要问题上。更加不要扯到别的地方去，举个例子，有人说在XX地区开发旅游会赢利，就只需要驳斥他不能盈利就行了，不要说什么会破坏环境之类的，没有意义；有人说XX要能治病，就只驳斥他实际不能治病，不要说是药都有副作用之类的，也没有意义，因为跟原文的逻辑没有关系，我们要找的是逻辑漏洞，不是原作者的人格或知识问题

[ 本帖最后由 夜一 于 2006-5-18 16:33 编辑 ]

exp03UID: 2158827

我郁闷要在明早上前写好很难！

夜一UID: 2130338

对不起啦，我承认我实在太吹毛求疵了
不过我觉得再写的话应该不难吧，照那三点一一破题的话
其实现在想起来，这是在精华贴中看到过的方法
就是先列出原文的逻辑顺序，然后破掉其中的关联点，就是画等号的地方啦

exp03UID: 2158827

1.产品有生动画面不等于好卖：其它市场因子
2.调查里的人喜欢不等于10-25岁的人喜欢，而且他们买不起
3.新的产品不一定能克服业绩的低潮：经营管理、销售渠道、竞争对手
参照了夜一的提纲！谢谢！修改写了一个半小时，352字，忘大家能指点！
In this argument, the arguer recommends that the sales of Whirlwind video games will increase dramatically in the next few months. To substantiate the conclusion, the arguer claims that a resent survey suggests this trend and the company has done some actions to support the project. This argument is problematic for several reasons.

The most significant of all, the question of the survey, what features the video-players most like, can not solve the problem—what kind of games will sale best. To increase profit of a company, there are much work should do. From the Central thought to the post-sale service, the company should conceder all the aspects not only graphics to attract the customers.

Weather introducing lifelike games to young people will bring about a striking effect is not sure. People in the survey like playing games with vivid pictures, but it is no evidence to show 10-25 years people, who always like better music and complex content, love them. So the advertisement of the company may not achieve good results. Even if these they really fond of lifelike game, the expensive up-to-date hardware may obstruct the sales of this kind of games for young people have no constant incomes. For these reasons Whirlwind should consider more serious to introduce their products.

More important, can one kind of games reverses the sales’ decline immediately? Video game market changes everyday. A company should have a whole management pattern to improve its games’ qualities and increase its profit. Otherwise, other video companies will compete with Whirlwind if customers respond well to the lifelike games. How does the company maintain the its market share while other companies may have better technology and market influence? With these barriers the thought of increase sales dramatically may can not become true.

As it stands, the argument is not well reasoned. To make it logically acceptable, the arguer would have to demonstrate that a lot of people are eagle to buy the new video games provided by the Whirlwind Company. But the arguer does not show only standard reason for the increase of the sales in the future.

Survey的整体问题，就是所谓的Sample Size和Selection Procedure的问题,我没攻击，但据说是一个主要攻击点……不去管行不行呢？就这个题目来说！
嗯 改别人的作文时觉得还是应该加上需要做更广泛的调查，而不是指调查现有的玩家，这样才能拓展市场

[ 本帖最后由 exp03 于 2006-5-19 10:24 编辑 ]

zqznedUID: 2114587

In this argument, the arguer recommends that the sales of Whirlwind video games will increase dramatically in the next few months. To substantiate the conclusion, the arguer claims that a resent survey suggests this trend and the company has done some actions to support the project. This argument is problematic for several reasons.

The most significant of all, the question of the survey, what features the video-players most like, can not solve the problem—what kind of games will sale best. To increase profit of a company, there are much work should（need to） do. From the Central thought to the post-sale service, the company should conceder(consider) all the aspects not only graphics to attract the customers.

Weather introducing lifelike games to young people will bring about a striking effect is not sure. People in the survey like playing games with vivid pictures, but it is no evidence to show 10-25 years people, who always（might） like better music and complex content(从何而来), love them. So the advertisement of the company may not achieve good results（前面应该是说引进这种游戏不一定而不是广告不一定的原因吧）. Even if those they really fond of lifelike game, the expensive up-to-date hardware may obstruct the sales of this kind of games for young people have no constant incomes(?). For these reasons Whirlwind should consider more serious to introduce their products.

More important, can one kind of games reverses the sales’ decline immediately? Video game market changes everyday. A company should have a whole management pattern to improve its games’ qualities and increase its profit. Otherwise, other video companies will compete with Whirlwind if customers respond well to the lifelike games. How does the company maintain its market share while other companies may have better technology and market influence? With these barriers the thought of increase sales dramatically may not become true.

As it stands, the argument is not well reasoned. To make it logically acceptable, the arguer would have to demonstrate that a lot of people are eagle(eager) to buy the new video games provided by the Whirlwind Company. But the arguer does not show only standard reason for the increase of the sales in the future.
改了一下，改得不好见谅啊。
第一个理由展开一下会比较好，至于第二个理由段再整理一下吧

flycc28UID: 2164453

原帖由 夜一 于 2006-5-18 23:22 发表
不过我觉得再写的话应该不难吧，照那三点一一破题的话
就是先列出原文的逻辑顺序，然后破掉其中的关联点，就是画等号的地方啦

启发很大 ...

夜一UID: 2130338

survey的问题，并不是每篇文章都一定要大行攻击的
像这篇文章，已经有很多更重要的逻辑错误了，survey的取样问题就比较微不足道了
但是其实也并不是没有涉及到，这个survey取样最大的问题是于10-20岁人群的相关问题

exp03UID: 2158827

嗯 小z给我改的说得很对,确实是第二段攻击对象搞错了而且例子很突兀,我的用词不当的地方希望大家以后也多多帮我提醒,主要我很chinglish...谢谢
我还要加强对题目分析的练习,对那些是主要逻辑错误还是糊涂中,有人提醒就知道,自己分析不出来!大家监督哈!

澄～清UID: 2215483

1.调查说玩家喜欢生动的画面+该公司有该类产品=该产品好卖
2.该产品好卖+推广到喜欢电玩的10-25岁的人=这些人要来买
3.这些人要来买=业绩会上升

精辟！ 佩服夜一的逻辑感～～

zqznedUID: 2114587

确实，感觉夜一在逻辑上和攻击的点上很强