argument117 『加州阳光小组』lastpearl第四次作业

lastpearlUID: 2119955

117The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.

"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."

1.调查样本数目可能不够多，不具有代表性。调查的范围是多少，有多少人接受了访问，如果范围很小，调查就没有代表性。另外被访者的职业、性别、年龄也都不知道，调查是否有采取措施防止误差，这样我们不知道调查是否准确。其次，被访者的态度也会影响到调查的说服力，如果他们只是在抱怨生活繁忙，就也不能反映出真实的情况。
2.即使人们现在比以前更多的需要在家工作，但并不表示他们需要新添设备。没有证据证明家用办公设备的需求在增加。
3.提高商品储存不一定就会提高利润，商品的质量、商品的种类都会影响到它的销售。而谈到是否会成为最赚钱的就更不能保证了，因为其他
的部门也在想办法多赚钱。
结论：论者还是应该进一步了解一下家用办公设备的需求是不是在上升，哪些货物的需求大，受欢迎，然后再做出决定。

The author recommends that the Valu-Mart stores should increase stores of home office machines and office supplies, thus the office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of the stores. To justify this conclusion the author cites a recent survey that over 70 percent of the respondents reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Also, the author points out that Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past. The author suffers from several problems, which render it unconvincing as it stands.

To begin with, the survey that the argument cites is potentially problematic in three respects. First, the author provides no evidence that the survey's results are statistically reliable. In order to make the recommendation more persuasive, the survey's sample must be sufficient in size. The larger the statistical sample the more reliable the results. Second, the author provides no evidence that the survey's respondents are representative of the overall group of people who work in office. Lacking such evidence, it is entirely possible that people inclined to take more work home were more willing to respond to the survey than other people were. Third, the attitudes of the respondents may influence the survey's persuasion on condition that they simply complain the busyness of life, thus the result cannot reflect the actual instance. Without ruling out these possible scenarios, the author cannot reasonably rely on these statistics to support the claim that people require to take more work home with them from the workplace.

Even assuming that the survey is statistically reliable and the numbers of people who work at home are more than before, it does not necessarily prove that they need purchase new home office machines. There is no evidence to testify that the need of home office machine is increasing. If the office clerk have the needs to use the machines such as printers, small copy machines, and so on, then can postpone the mission until the next day when they get to the company. Even though the personnel own the office machines, the task should be disposed is determinate. The office clerk deal with it at home, then there is no need to manage it with the machines in the office. The question lies in in which place the task be managed. Lacking evidence that people need more office machines, the author cannot justifiably that the Valu-Mart stores should increase stores of home office machines and office supplies.

Finally, the author fails to rule out other possibility that contribute to the profit of the store. Even if the Valu-Mart stores increase stock of home office machines and office supplies, the office-supply departments would not necessarily be profitable as a result. The quality and species of commodity can affect its vendition. If the merchandise which is stocked by the stores is low-grade , the customer will not purchase that. The means of management is also important to the increase of the profit. The author provides no evidence that the manager does not misgovern the stores, let alone about the office-supply departments become the most profitable component of the stores. The author does not mention the circumstance of other departments, maybe they are making great efforts to earn money and the result is better than the office-supply departments. Absent evidence to support these assumptions, the author's broad conclusion that "office-supply departments will become the most profitable component” is dubious at best.

In conclusion, the argument is indefensible as it stands. To strengthen it the author must show that the number of respondents and make sure that they are representative of the overall group of people who work in office and their attitudes are fair-and-square. The author must also assure me that the need of the home office machines is increasing or decreasing, which goods has the best demand and most popular and provide the circumstance of other departments.

敬请拍砖～