- 最后登录
- 2010-7-6
- 在线时间
- 0 小时
- 寄托币
- 168
- 声望
- 0
- 注册时间
- 2006-1-31
- 阅读权限
- 15
- 帖子
- 0
- 精华
- 0
- 积分
- 126
- UID
- 2181388

- 声望
- 0
- 寄托币
- 168
- 注册时间
- 2006-1-31
- 精华
- 0
- 帖子
- 0
|
65.The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
The president’s proposal is prone to arouse distrust and scorn rather than confidence and advocacy due to his/her specious deduction.
What is the most uncertain evidence provided by the president is that five best-selling cheeses at newest store prove that domestic cheeses are much more popular. Firstly, it is possible that the newest store is located at Wisconsin so that the customers are familiar with these cheese brands and inclined to support local enterprise. Secondly, maybe the five cheeses hold a promotion campaign through lower price, “buy one, give one” and large-scale advertisement to attract customers to have a try. The temporary best-selling can not be equated with the sustained consumer loyalty and whether the optimal trend can continue or not is still uncertainty. Thirdly, the only one store and the only one brand can not represent the whole performance about domestic cheeses in all stores.
Another ungrounded reasoning is about the survey conducted by Cheeses of the World magazine. How many subscribers took part in the survey and what is the magazine circulation and range? If the total number of respondent is small and the local scale is limited, the survey will not be representative and authoritative. Simultaneously, an increasing preference for domestic cheeses seems not mean that domestic cheeses overwhelms imported cheeses because we do not know the initial proportion between the two types. If the support percentage of domestic cheese is much less than 50%, it still falls behind even with growth. Moreover, it is possible that those whose favorite is imported cheeses did not return the survey sheet or even did not subscribe the magazine. Their purchase behavior definitely exists, although the survey did not hear their declaration. Finally, subscriber of the magazine is not the same definition as customer of the store, maybe majority of the former are cheese experts and cheese cookers and their appreciation can not manifest the sale trend.
I can not help pointing out that the decision the president made is also fraught with question. Reducing expenses can decrease cost, nevertheless, it does not mean to improve profits. From the economic perspective, profit is a complicated variable determined by multiple interleaved factors such as cost, sales, price and brand effect. For the president’s policy, customers who prefer imported cheese is likely to condemn the foreign brand dearth, how can the president prove that risk deserves try? In fact, there are many other schemes to improve profit and utilizing which one need observation and comparison.
Powering the engine of making money is the obligation and aspiration of each president for an enterprise. However, making business decision, one of the scientific analysis, requires not only enthusiasm but also scientism.
[ 本帖最后由 jujuangela 于 2006-7-7 16:56 编辑 ] |
|