argument117 smile-A 第六次作业 卖办公室用品那篇，请指教！

猫猫寿司UID: 2219543

argument117
117The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.

"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."

Outline：1 incomplete comparison does not take other departments into account
        2 false assumption: increase in work home does not equates to an increasing demand of office supplies eg: work but do not need or get from office
        3 no impressive sales 不一定是存货少，可能恰恰是反例
        4 unreliable survey
Based on a fallacious assumption that a work home trend which is showed by a survey, could assure a great demand of office machines and supplies, the business manager decides to increase their stock of these things and makes a conclusion that the office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of their store. After a careful consideration, we will easily find that this conclusion is inconclusive and may give out a wrong direction to the store.

In the first place, the manager assumes that an increase in stock of the office supply could surely bring about more profit to their store, which lacks reliable evidence. Let’s suppose there is a greater demand as the manager states in the article, however, that lends no strong support to an increased profit, since no one could assure that the consumers would go into Valu-Mart to purchase those office supplies. Even if this is the case, the manager still makes an incomplete comparison by asserting the office-supply departments to be the most profitable one without providing us any information about other departments in the store, such as the revenue or the profit made by them. Thus even if the office-supply department could earn more money, it is entirely possible that their profit still can not overweight the other ones in the same store such as the electrical machine department or cosmetic department.

Secondly, the speaker ungrounded decides to increase the office supplies on the basis of a home work trend, which is insufficient evidence. The possible relationship between the increased number of work home people and a greater demand of office supplies could not be simply equates to a causal correlation. There stands a good chance that those people will simply do some work at home which do not need a printer, a fax machine, paper, or even stapler in that they only work in front of the computer screen and leave the rest of the work to the time when they come back to the office; or even they could take home the supplies in the office because they are required to do the work home thus should not bear the extra expenditure to buy all the office stuff. Before an overall consideration of all these contingencies, I can not be convinced by the manager that the trend of home work indicates an increased demand of office supply.

Moreover, in order to change the unimpressive sales condition in the office-supply departments the manager simply approaches the method of increasing the stock while the real problem may lie in managing, high cost or any other place. His oversimplification may lead the store into wrong direction.Besides, the fact that a home work trend may have already continued for a wihle when the sale is still discouraging, if it is the case, the evidence the speaker provide may properly refute his own decision of increasing the stock.

Finally, the work home trend derived from a survey, which serves as an evidence of increased need for office supply is also doubtful itself, without mentioning any precise information about how the survey being conducted, the sample size and whether the sample could represent people in general, since it is quite possible that those who often work at home are also more likely to respond to the survey. In the absence of these important information, it is impossible to decide the credibility of this survey.

To sum up, without a comprehensive analysis about the market trend, the memo can only serve as a misguidance to the store rather than a wise and profitable decision. To make this memo more persuasive, more possibilities should be taken into account and more precise data are needed to support the survey.

579字 43分钟
修改完后６１９个字
还是超时很多阿……但是哪一点都又不能省
烦劳各位帮我删一下阿～～谢谢，自己的娃，哪里都舍不得

我觉得issue还是应该写600然后argument写500

xinxinwUID: 2144273

Based on a fallacious assumption that a work home trend which is showed by a survey, could assure a great demand of office machines and supplies, the business manager decides to increase their stock of these things and makes a conclusion that the office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of their store. After a careful consideration, we will easily find that this conclusion is inconclusive and may give out a wrong direction to the store.

In the first place, the manager assumes that an increase in stock of the office supply could surely bring about more profit to their store, which lacks reliable evidence. Let’s suppose there is a greater demand as the manager states in the article, however, that lends no strong support to an increased profit, since no one could assure that the consumers would go into Valu-Mart to purchase those office supplies. Even if this is the case, the manager still makes an incomplete comparison by asserting the office-supply departments to be the most profitable one without providing us any information about other departments in the store, such as the revenue or the profit made by them. Thus even if the office-supply department could earn more money, it is entirely possible that their profit still can not overweight the other ones in the same store such as the electrical machine department or cosmetic department.

Secondly, the speaker ungrounded decides to increase the office supplies on the basis of a home work trend, which is insufficient evidence. The possible relationship between the increased number of work home people and a greater demand of office supplies could not be simply equates to a causal correlation. There stands a good chance that those people will simply do some work at home which do not need a printer, a fax machine, paper, or even stapler in that they only work in front of the computer screen and leave the rest of the work to the time when they come back to the office; or even they could take home the supplies in the office because they are required to do the work home thus should not bear the extra expenditure to buy all the office stuff. Before an overall consideration of all these contingencies, I can not be convinced by the manager that the trend of home work indicates an increased demand of office supply.

Moreover, in order to change the unimpressive sales condition in the office-supply departments the manager simply approaches the method of increasing the stock while the real problem may lie in managing, high cost or any other place. His oversimplification may lead the store into wrong direction.Besides, the fact that a home work trend may have already continued for a wihle when the sale is still discouraging, if it is the case, the evidence the speaker provide may properly refute his own decision of increasing the stock.

Finally, the work home trend derived from a survey, which serves as an evidence of increased need for office supply is also doubtful itself, without mentioning any precise information about how the survey being 这里要being么？我觉得应该是was阿conducted, the sample size and whether the sample could represent people in general, since it is quite possible that those who often work at home are also more likely to respond to the survey. In the absence of these important information, it is impossible to decide the credibility of this survey.

To sum up, without a comprehensive analysis about the market trend, the memo can only serve as a misguidance to the store rather than a wise and profitable decision. To make this memo more persuasive, more possibilities should be taken into account and more precise data are needed to support the survey.

不知道你是怎么确定攻击顺序的呢？我认为那个survey得到的trend是作者的前提条件，正是由于存在这样的trend，作者认为会有大量需求，然后由后来的推论。所以我想先说survey呢？你怎么考虑的？

确实太长了，正像我说的，你的语言太生动了。我的建议是，少举一些他因（第二段），第三段和第一段的第一个一群有重合，可以合并。删了你的娃，不要恨我哦。

我的目标是argument400+, Issue500+

猫猫寿司UID: 2219543

哈哈
xinxin太搞笑了
恩
我的想法是…… 什么都从结论说……
现在不知道是不是看了那个文章，反有点糊涂了
看看第七篇吧
顺序是不是好一点~~嘿嘿

xinxinwUID: 2144273

那个帖子很蛊惑人心的说