argument42 严重超时，有链必回

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ARGUMENT42 - The following appeared in a proposal from the economic minister of the country of Paraterra.

"In order to strengthen its lagging economy, last year the government of the nearby country of Bellegea began an advertising campaign to promote ecologically sound tourism (ecotourism). This year the number of foreign visitors arriving at Bellegea's main airport doubled, and per capita income in Bellegea increased by ten percent. To provide more income for the population of Paraterra and also preserve the natural environment of our tiny country, we too should begin to promote ecotourism. To ensure that our advertising campaign is successful, we should hire the current director of Bellegea's National Tourism Office as a consultant for the campaign."
字数：496          用时：0:55:33          日期：2006-8-21

In the analysis , the arguer concludes that in order to strengthen the lagging economy of the country of Paraterra , the committee should begin to promote ecotourism and hire the director of Bellegea's National Tourism Office as a consultant for the campaign . To substantiate this argument , the author points out the evidence that the nearby country of Bellegea's per capita income increased by the advertising campaign to promote ecologically sound tourism . However , careful scrutiny over the argument will reveal that it suffers from several fallacies and therefore is not convincing .

Firstly , there is no warranted information available to justify the relationship between the advertising campaign and the per capita income in Bellagea's increase . To establish this relationship , a myriad of other relevant factors , such as some other economic politics and the economic situation of resemblance countries should be considered and ruled out . For example , it is possible that country of Bellegea lowed its taxes and it would certainly make a contribution to the income increase . Since the editorial fails to eliminate these and other feasible factors , we can not buttress this idea .

Moreover , another problem of the argument is that it doesn't take into account that inherent differences between the countries of Bellegea and Paraterra . No evidence is showed except that they are nearby in location . It is to say that the arguer establishes an oversimplified analogy between the two countries . So we can consider if Bellagea is a country full of beautiful natural sights and Paraterra is newly built with the natural sights undeveloped . In this situation , though the same advertising campaigns are carried out , the consequences can be different . Such these dissimilarities between the two countries can certainly undermine the argument .

Finally , even if all evidences needed above were showed , the argument is still questionable . Because the arguer does not show any certain relationship between the success of advertising campaign of Bellegea and the director of its National Tourism Office . A campaign's success is a consequence of many aspects involved . Since no apparent evidence reveals that most contribution of the campaign was due to the director , we can not give the honor to him . Additionally , even if the director surely did a lot to make the campaign succeed , it also can not say the campaign in Paraterra will have the same success . Because when surrounding changed , the director and his measures may not cater to it this time .

In sum , in order to persuade me to agree with the argument , more evidence about the countries of Bellegea and Paraterra should be revealed . Also some more details about the country Bellegea's campaign and its contribution to the ecotourism and the per capita income are needed if the arguer wants to make the editorial more convincing .