Argu235 [Shining Sep 作文组] 8.21

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT235 - The following appeared in a memorandum from the general manager of KNOW radio station.

"Several factors indicate that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Consider, for example, the number of older people in our listening area has increased dramatically, while the total number of our listeners has recently declined. Also, music stores in our area report decreased sales of recorded music. Finally, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful, and a survey taken just before the recent election shows that local citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics."
WORDS: 401          TIME: 0:49:33          DATE: 2006-8-21

In this argument, the arguer concludes that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. To support the conclusion, the arguer points out that the amount of listeners has declined. In addition, the arguer gives the examples of neighboring cities. However, there are several critical fallacies in this argument.

First of all, the dramatically increased number of older listener and declined total listeners can not strongly support the general manager to shift the programming. There is no evidence to demonstrate that the older listener do not like the rock-and-roll but news. And the music program is not the only reason of the total listeners declining assuredly. Maybe when the arguer made this investigation, the world cup of football was on show, so people were all enjoying the football match instead of listening to the radio.

Second, there is no inherent consequence between decreased sales of recorded music and changing the radio program. Other potential matters which the arguer did not mention maybe existed to lead the decreased sales of recorded music. For instance, Nowadays, Internet is more and more popular. People could download music from Internet or just enjoy music online. They do not need to buy CDs or tapes, and then the sales of recorded music decreased.

Furthermore, the fact that continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful is untenable to support the argument. Does any similarity between this city and the others? Perhaps there are more people who care about the policy in other cities. Or it is possible that there is no rock-and-roll music program in those cites. Therefore, comparing with other cities cursorily is inappropriate. Finally, the survey which cited in the argument is also improper. Because this survey was taken before a election, local citizens certainly concerned about the politics, but it do not present the usual situation. And the arguer does not indicate the detail information of this survey. The authenticity is doubtful, so the unjust survey can not be an evidence of this argument.

To sum up, the conclusion lacks of credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to give detail statistics of declining of rock-and-roll's listeners. To better evaluate the argument, we would need the benefit of shifting program to a continuous news format.