argument97 [shining sep] 限时冲刺中 迎接砖头~

flycc28UID: 2164453

TOPIC: ARGUMENT97 - The following appeared in a memo from the manager of television station KICK.

"A nationwide survey reveals that a sizeable majority of men would like to see additional sports programs on television. After television station WACK increased its sports broadcasts, its share of the television audience in its viewing area almost doubled. To gain a larger audience share in our area, and thus increase company profits, KICK should also revise its broadcast schedule to include more sports coverage."
WORDS: 447        TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2006-8-27

In this memo, the manager recommends that KICK should revise its broadcast schedule to include more sports coverage. To substantiate it, the manager cites a national survey, and points out WACK, television station, increased its sports broadcast and the audience doubled. Careful examination, however, of the supporting evidence reveals that it lends little credibility to the manager's conclusion.

A threshold problem with this memo is the reliability of the statistical information. The manager provides no evidence that the respondents are representative of all the audience. If the survey subjects are a group of sports fanatics, the survey does not represent the overall audience who watch television. Lacking of more information concerning the survey, the manager cannot convince me that majority of men would like to see additional sports programs.

Secondly, the manager assumes that the television audience in its viewing area  almost doubled due to more sports broadcasts on WACK television. The manager indicates that the more sports broadcasts, the more audience. But the manager fails to take into other alternative explanation for the increased audience. Chances are that WACK sets out a new enthralling television program the time increase the sports broadcast, and the increasing audience is attracted by the new program rather than the sports broadcast.  Or perhaps it is holidays for students, most of the students of WACK return from other areas, leading to double of the total amount of audience, while the rate of people who watch sports broadcast keep constant.
Without accounting for other factors which may be responsible for the increased sports audience, the manager's assumption may unwarranted.

Thirdly, even if WACK's increase in audience is due to more sports program. The manager conducts a fallacy of false analogy. Without considering the differences between the two areas, the manager unfairly assumes that increasing the sports program in WACK will be also effective in KICK. Any of the differences such as habit of the audience which ignored by the manager will undermine the conclusion.

Last but not least, the more audience share does not equal to more profit. Common sense tells that the profit the television station will be determined by its cost. It is entirely possible that the cost of WICK has increased considerably as it revises the schedule, at the same time, avenue from other program may decrease. Hence it is presumptuous to assert that WICK will benefit more from revise the program.


In sum, the memo is unpersuasive as it stands. To strengthen the memo, the manager should provide more information about the survey, and to better evaluate the memo, we need to know more concerning whether the two stations are comparable, and other alternatives may affect the profit.