argument15[shining sep] 股票投资~

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT15 - The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.

"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."
WORDS: 386        TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2006-8-31

In this newsletter, the arguer advises Old Dairy(OD) stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company. To substantiate, the arguer cites a recent survey indicating a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and points out that OD with many food products with high cholesterol and fat will diminish in sales and profit. Careful examination, however, reveals that the supporting evidence lend little credibility to the arguer' conclusion.

To begin with, the arguer cites a recent survey and indicates respondents' desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol. But the arguer fails to provide evidence to support whether the respondents can be representative of the overall food consumers. In case a disproportion of people who are high in fats and cholesterol contribute to the statistics, the arguer cannot justifiable draw any further conclusion based on the survey.

Even if the survey is representative the consumers in general, OD's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profit will no doubt decrease is open to doubt. Albeit the high fat and cholesterol contain in OD's food, it is entire possible that there are not any more companies to produce the food which OD produces, consequently, the consumers have no choice but OD, or perhaps OD 's products will also attract the consumer who do not care much about the high fat and cholesterol, if so, the OD's sale and profit probably will not do down, it is possible to keep constant or even go up.

Last but not least, even OD' sales are likely to diminish and profits will decrease, the arguer's advice that OD stockholders to sell their share and other investor not to purchase stock in OD is unpersuasive.  Common sense informs us that stockholders usually have a long invest on stock in order to gain a considerable bonus. If the OD's stock will increase in a long period, selling the shares might not be a good choice.

In sum, the argument is unconvincing as it stands, to strengthen this argument the arguer should take into account the respondents' health condition. To better evaluate the argument, we need to know there are more companies producing the same products with OD. We also need to know the investor's real desire on invest.