ARGUMENT38 米国有米第七次作业 欢迎批评

cckantUID: 2247822

TOPIC: ARGUMENT38 - The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.

Outline:
1. 吃鱼跟去医院少不一定有关系
2。即使有关系，也不一定跟鱼油有关系
3。即使跟鱼油有关系，也不一定能减少缺勤，感冒也许只是借口

"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
WORDS: 395          TIME: 0:31:41          DATE: 2006-12-25

The argument as illustrated in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council claims that, given the evidence that in East Meria, where fish consumption is very high and annual visits to doctors are less, people should take lchthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, daily to prevent colds and absenteeism. For several reasons, such claims are logically unconvincing.

To begin with, there is no necessary link between the high fish consumption and low hospital visits rate in East Meria. Though these two factors happen concurrently, there is no evidence provided that high fish consumption leads to low rate of hospital visits. There are a great number of contingencies that lead to the particularly low rate of hospital visits, such as the healthy living habit, or genetic advantage in such areas.

Moreover, even if we accepts the hypothesis of such a causal link between fish consumption and health status, i.e. the positive effect of fish consumption on the health level preventing minor sickness, it can be established that the Lubricous ingredient comes from the fish oil. Evidence is needed to rule out other ingredient or to prove the direct supporting effect on human health. Without such evidence, the promotion about daily use of lchthaid, which is a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, can not be grounded.

Finally, even if we take a further step to accept the hypothesis that the fish oil and hence lchthaid is good for general health and thus it is useful to prevent colds, it is still not convincing that the daily use of lchthaid should reduce absenteeism. Given that colds are the reason most frequently quoted for absence from school and work, however, it does not mean it is really the reason from absence. There is a reasonable possibility, which no evidence is provided to rule out, that cold is not more than an excuse for absence, rather than a true one. Absence of such evidence, the recommendation of daily use of lchthaid to lower absenteeism is invalid.

In sum, due to several logical overlook and invalid jumps, the claim and recommendation in this newsletter is suspicious. To validate such recommendation, the speaker may need to provide scientific or statistic evidence that the fish oil or its equivalence contained in lchthaid is helpful to prevent colds, and the underlying reason of absenteeism is indeed colds.   

[ 本帖最后由 cckant 于 2006-12-25 16:50 编辑 ]

joochangUID: 2265219

Outline:
1. 吃鱼跟去医院少不一定有关系
2。即使有关系，也不一定跟鱼油有关系
3。即使跟鱼油有关系，也不一定能减少缺勤，感冒也许只是借口

"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
WORDS: 395          TIME: 0:31:41          DATE: 2006-12-25

The argument as illustrated in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council claims that, given the evidence that in East Meria, where fish consumption is very high and annual visits to doctors are less, people should take lchthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, daily to prevent colds and absenteeism. For several reasons, such claims are logically unconvincing.[这句话可以适当丰富一下]

To begin with, there is no necessary link between the high fish consumption and low hospital visits rate in East Meria. Though these two factors happen concurrently, there is no evidence provided that high fish consumption leads to low rate of hospital visits. There are a great number of contingencies that lead to the particularly low rate of hospital visits, such as the healthy living habit, or genetic advantage in such areas.[加一句结论]

Moreover, even if we accepts the hypothesis of such a causal link between fish consumption and health status, i.e. the positive effect of fish consumption on the health level preventing minor sickness, it can be established that the Lubricous ingredient comes from the fish oil. Evidence is needed to rule out other ingredient or to prove the direct supporting effect on human health. Without such evidence, the promotion about daily use of lchthaid, which is a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, can not be grounded.

Finally, even if we take a further step to accept the hypothesis that the fish oil and hence lchthaid is good for general health and thus it is useful to prevent colds, it is still not convincing that the daily use of lchthaid should [would]reduce absenteeism. Given that colds are the reason most frequently quoted for absence from school and work, however, it does not mean it is really the reason from absence. There is a reasonable possibility, which no evidence is provided to rule out, that cold is not more than an excuse for absence, rather than a true one. Absence of such evidence, the recommendation of daily use of lchthaid to lower absenteeism is invalid.[把这段放到第一攻击点，是不是更好呢，只要作者的假设“感冒是缺席的首要原因”有问题，那作者的结论也就毫无疑义]

In sum, due to several logical overlook and invalid jumps, the claim and recommendation in this newsletter is suspicious. To validate such recommendation, the speaker may need to provide scientific or statistic evidence that the fish oil or its equivalence contained in lchthaid is helpful to prevent colds, and the underlying reason of absenteeism is indeed colds.   
主要错误都攻击到了，语言上没有什么问题，常用攻击句型再丰满一些就好了，加油。