Argument117 sisong2003--0706G-Hamming小组第八次作业

sisong2003UID: 2154005

TOPIC: ARGUMENT117 - The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.

"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."
WORDS: 418         TIME: 上午 00:50:00          DATE: 2007-1-12
提纲：
1.     调查不具代表性
2.     即使带工作回家的人增加，也不表示办公器械需求增加
3.     认为是最挣钱的部门概括草率
In this argument, the author recommends that the office-supply departments of Valu-Mart stores should increase the stock of home office machines and other office supplies due to a recent survey that over seventy percent of the respondents are required more work home. And the author concludes that these changes will definitely increase the profits. Nevertheless, I find several logical fallacies in this argument, which render it unconvincing as it stands.

To begin with, the survey that implies more and more people taking work home from the workplace is not persuasive. The author provides little information about the conducting means of the survey and the proportion of the respondents and participants. It is entirely possible that the people who are not required to take more work home are less likely to reply to the survey, so the number of respondents may take account very small percent of the whole participants. Thus, the fewer the respondents are, the less representative the result is.

In addition, even if more and more people are required to take work home, the author recommendation that the office-supply departments should increase stock of home office machines is unwarranted. However, this is not necessarily the case. We all know that working at home does not indicate that we can not work without these home office machines. It is very likely that some clerks only write documents on computers, or perhaps some programmers merely continue their program on notebook PCs. Under either scenario, these working home people are impossible to buy any home office machines such as printers, small copy machines or fax machines. Without considering these possibilities, the author can not convince us that the increasing stock is necessary.

Finally, the author hastily generalizes that the office-supply departments will be the most profitable department with these changes. However, as it known to all, whether it is profitable to a store not only depends on the supply-and-demand but also relies on the cost-benefit analysis. Perhaps the cost of producing as well as delivering these office machines is rising. Even though the sales of these office supplies are impressive, the profits may be very little. Therefore, the generalization is unwarranted without taking these factors into account.

In sum, this argument is not convincing as it stands for the above flaws. To better substantiate it, the author should provide more information about the survey. Additionally, the author should consider the career of these taking work home people and then decides if the increasing stock of office supplies is necessary.

一周没写，感觉手生了不少，自己改了一遍，错的地方很多

graduate06UID: 2223299

WORDS: 418         TIME: 上午 00:50:00          DATE: 2007-1-12
提纲：1.     调查不具代表性2.     即使带工作回家的人增加，也不表示办公器械需求增加3.     认为是最挣钱的部门概括草率
In this argument, the author recommends that the office-supply departments of Valu-Mart stores should increase the stock of home office machines and other office supplies due to a recent survey that over seventy percent of the respondents are required more work home. And the author concludes that these changes will definitely increase the profits. Nevertheless, I find several logical fallacies in this argument, which render it unconvincing as it stands.

To begin with, the survey that implies more and more people taking work home from the workplace is not persuasive. The author provides little information about the conducting means of the survey and the proportion of the respondents and participants. It is entirely possible that the people who are not required to take more work home are less likely to reply to the survey, so the number of respondents may take account very small percent of the whole participants.（应该是：这个比例很小，所以并没有多少人被要求把工作带回家完成吧） Thus, the fewer the respondents are, the less representative the resultis.结果一般用可信或不可信，reliable/credible

In addition, even if more and more people are required to take work home, the author recommendation需要动词recommend that the office-supply departments should increase stock of home office machines is unwarranted. However, this is not necessarily the case. We all know that working at home does not indicate that we can not work without these home office machines. It is very likely that some clerks only write documents on computers, or perhaps some programmers merely continue their program on notebook PCs. Under either scenario,people work at home(这样顺些) are impossible to buy any home office machines such as printers, small copy machines or fax machines. Without considering these possibilities, the author can not convince us thatit is necessary to increase the stock这样好些，另外，个人认为列举他因时，我们说的是有可能怎么样，any这样的词还是换下。
Finally, the author hastily generalizes that the office-supply departments will be the most profitable department with these changes. However, as it known to all, whether it is profitable to a store not only depends on the supply-and-demand but also relies on the cost-benefit analysis. Perhaps the cost of producing as well as delivering these office machines is rising. Even though the sales of these office supplies are impressive销售增长是令人印象深刻的吧, the profits may be very little. Therefore, without taking these factors into account the generalization is unwarranted.  调整一下顺序

In sum, this argument is not convincing as it stands for the above flaws. To better substantiate it, the author should provide more information about the survey. Additionally, the author should consider the career of these taking work home people and then decides if the increasing stock of office supplies is necessary.简单有力

思路，结构清晰明了。在举他因，深入分析方面，还可以再发展一下。另外是50minutes完成初稿吗？如果是的话时间要卡一下了。总体不错！加油！！