Argument65【CSMY作文互改小组】第三次作业

浮华如烟UID: 113618

TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
WORDS: 526          TIME: 00:40:34          DATE: 2007-1-16

1、作者犯了草率推广的错误，作者没有提供任何证据表明最新店的销售情况能够反映全国所有商店的情况。
2、调查的代表性，可信度值得怀疑，杂志的订阅者不能代表cheese的消费者，因此他们的建议及消费趋向不具有代表性。
3、论断不周全，提高利润的办法还很多，作者没有证明停止进口货是最优的
（其实在这之前可以写一段是否这样的举动会盈利的问题，比如虽然存货费用下降了，但是考虑到广告费用却可能增加，比如进口货是名牌，不需要广告之类的，另外要考虑industrial competition行业间竞争和通货膨胀adjustment inflation之类的）


At first glance, the arguer's reasoning seems to be quite sound. According to his conclusion, the profits will be improved if their stores cease stocking many of their varieties of imported cheese and focus on mostly on domestic cheeses. But unfortunately, if we make a careful consideration of his evidence, doubt will be cast on this conclusion and apprehension will be heaped on this chain store's future performance.

The threshold problem worth considering is the author's hasty generalization. He unfairly assumes that the domestic cheeses had a better sale than the imported cheeses based on the fact that the five best-selling cheeses at their newest store were all domestic ones. However, the statistics of cheese sales in the newest store might not apply equally to all the others stores involved in the chain throughout the United States. This single sample is insufficient to draw any general conclusion about overall stores' sale. It is highly possible that the imported cheese is more welcomed and holds a higher rank than domestic cheeses in the majority of the cheese stores. For this matter, discontinuing stocking would be counteractive to promote the profits. Without ruling out this and other scenarios, the author cannot draw any firm conclusion based on this fact.

Moreover, the survey that the argument cites is potentially problematic in several respects. Firstly, we are not informed whether the survey's respondents were representative of the overall population of cheese customers. For instance, if the only buyers surveyed were those favoring domestic cheeses, then the survey results would be less reliable than if the survey embraced a wide range of customers. In a word, the smaller the sample the greater the possibility for biased results, and the less reliable any general conclusions drawn from the survey. Secondly, the majority of the cheeses customers probably do not subscribe this magazine. If this is the case, the author have no reason to draw any conclusion from this survey. Finally, considering that this survey was conducted recently, it is such a short time frame to draw any effective conclusion. We need average survey which lasts an adequate long time.

Even if we accept that the domestic cheeses really hold a better sale than the imported cheeses, the author's recommendation is based on the assumption that it is the best path to improve profits that to concentrate primarily on domestic ones. However, the author fails to offer any evidence to substantiate this crucial assumption. For example, perhaps other means such as promoting the taste of the cheeses or diversifying the appearance of the cheeses would be more effective for the profits rather than suspending the stocking of imported cheeses. Also, economizing the cost of producing cheeses would be a wise idea to promote the overall profits. Without considering and eliminating these and other alternative means, it is difficult to assess the merit of the author's recommendation that discontinuing imported cheeses provides the optimal selection for the chain store.

In summary, the argument is not well reasoned as it stands. The evidence provided in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the author maintains. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to present more evidence that the domestic cheeses are really the preference of the majority of customers and other feasible and efficient means should be taken into account to increase the overall profits.

staroceanUID: 2271193

At first glance, the arguer's reasoning seems to be quite sound. According to his conclusion, the profits will be improved if their stores cease stocking many of their varieties of imported cheese and focus on mostly on domestic cheeses. But unfortunately, if we make a careful consideration of his evidence, doubt will be cast on(收了) this conclusion and apprehension will be heaped on this chain store's future performance.

The threshold problem worth considering is the author's hasty generalization. He（or she） unfairly assumes that the domestic cheeses had a better sale than the imported cheeses based on the fact that the five best-selling cheeses at their newest store were all domestic ones. However, the statistics of cheese sales in the newest store might not apply equally to all the others stores involved in the chain throughout the United States. This single sample is insufficient to draw any general conclusion about overall stores' sale. It is highly possible that the imported cheese is more welcomed and holds a higher rank than domestic cheeses in the majority of the cheese stores. For this matter, discontinuing stocking would be counteractive to promote the profits. Without ruling out this and other scenarios, the author cannot draw any firm conclusion based on this fact.（这一段空话甚多，其实可以分层说很多的。1。不应该比较卖出去的总数，应该比较分别的卖出去的比率，可能进口的进货就少，结果就算卖全卖出去了也没多少，人们是迫于无奈买的国产的。2。就算假设卖的真的好也不代表人们的喜好，可能这一段时间，国产的做广告了，可能在商店的摆放位置更好，可能降价促销了。3。就算在这几个店人们真的喜欢国产的，只有这几个店不能说明所有的店。）

Moreover, the survey that the argument cites is potentially problematic in several respects. Firstly, we are not informed whether the survey's respondents were representative of the overall population of cheese customers. For instance, if the only buyers surveyed were those favoring domestic cheeses, then the survey results would be less reliable than if the survey embraced a wide range of customers. In a word, the smaller the sample the greater the possibility for biased results, and the less reliable any general conclusions drawn from the survey. Secondly, the majority of the cheeses customers probably do not subscribe this magazine. If this is the case, the author have no reason to draw any conclusion from this survey. Finally, considering that this survey was conducted recently, it is such a short time frame to draw any effective conclusion. We need average survey which lasts an adequate long time.（这一段就写的很饱满了。）

Even if we accept that the domestic cheeses really hold a better sale than the imported cheeses, the author's recommendation is based on the assumption that it is the best path to improve profits that to concentrate primarily on domestic ones. However, the author fails to offer any evidence to substantiate this crucial assumption. For example, perhaps other means such as promoting the taste of the cheeses or diversifying the appearance of the cheeses would be more effective for the profits rather than suspending the stocking of imported cheeses. Also, economizing the cost of producing cheeses would be a wise idea to promote the overall profits. Without considering and eliminating these and other alternative means, it is difficult to assess the merit of the author's recommendation that discontinuing imported cheeses provides the optimal selection for the chain store.（没什么问题）

In summary, the argument is not well reasoned as it stands. The evidence provided in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the author maintains. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to present more evidence that the domestic cheeses are really the preference of the majority of customers and other feasible and efficient means should be taken into account to increase the overall profits.

本来想去写看个绝望主妇，结果又改文了。。。

[ 本帖最后由 starocean 于 2007-1-17 00:05 编辑 ]