Argument53【米国有米】小组 第十次作业

laner023UID: 2223653

题目
TOPIC: ARGUMENT53 - Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.

正文
In this argument, the author concludes that increased levels of melatonin before birth will cause infants shyness and this shyness continues into their later lives. To support this conclusion, the author cites various evidences. However, a careful examination of the argument reveals it suffers from several critical flaws, which render it unconvincing as it stands. Each flaw will be discussed in turn.

To begin with, the author provides no evidence that the study of 25 infants is statistically reliable. The author should substantiate that the samples, 25 infants, are sufficient in size, and the infants are representative of all infants. For example, the author should show us that whether the 25 infants are limited to a certain region, or from a certain hospital; or whether the 25 infants are all girls, who is more likely to show shyness than boys according to common sense. Otherwise, the author cannot confidently base on the study to draw any conclusion.

Secondly, even if the study is statistically reliable, the author’s further assumption that increased levels of melatonin before birth causes shyness during infancy based on a study about 25 infants is still unwarranted. The methodology of the study is open to doubt. The author simply informs us that the 25 infants who are more likely to be conceived in early autumn showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli. Yet the argument contains no information about the reflection of infants who were not conceived in early autumn to these unfamiliar stimuli. Lacking such important information, given that the stimuli are unfamiliar, it entirely possible that most of infants will show mild distress. If the scenario is true, perhaps the mild distress is a sign of discomfort responded to the stimuli but rather shyness. Thus, the study would not serve to establish the casual relationship between increased melatonin level and shyness during infancy.

Thirdly, even assuming that the study of 25 infants 13 years ago is reliable, the argument relies partly on the follow-up study, which is also problematic in three aspects. First, since the study based on self-report, it is entirely possible that the questions are leading. If so, children would just respond with the expected answers, and therefore the result might be unreliable. Moreover, given that the argument provides no information about proportion of other children who think they were shy, perhaps all teenagers at this age are more likely to feel shy. Besides, the author also fails to provide information about the living condition of these children during the 13 years. Lacking this crucial information, perhaps most of these children are all from poor families which make them do not have the opportunities to go to school, and thereby they do not have enough chances to communicate with their peers. If this is the case, it is their poor families but rather the melatonin that responsible for their shyness after they grow up.

In sum, this argument is logical flawed in several aspects as discussed above. To improve the argument, the author should substantiate that cited study is statistically reliable. To make it more convincing, the author must establish a casual relationship between increased melatonin level and infants’ shyness. Moreover, the argument could be better improved by adjusting the methodology of the follow-up study.

Silence0706UID: 2289145

In this argument, the author concludes that increased levels of melatonin before birth will cause infants shyness and this shyness continues into their later lives. To support this conclusion, the author cites various evidences. However, a careful examination of the argument reveals it suffers from several critical flaws, which render it unconvincing as it stands. Each flaw will be discussed in turn.

To begin with, the author provides no evidence that the study of 25 infants is statistically reliable. The author should substantiate that the samples, 25 infants, are sufficient in size, and the infants are representative of all infants. For example, the author should show us that whether the 25 infants are limited to a certain region, or from a certain hospital; or whether the 25 infants are all girls, who is more likely to show shyness than boys according to common sense. Otherwise, the author cannot confidently base on the study to draw any conclusion.

觉得这段写少了点，而且不是很专业，要攻就攻其1点，论证部分少了点。 对于样本问题好像有一些基本的思路可以套用。这题我没写样本问题，就在你这里练练笔  :)

The evidence that the author provides is insufficient to support the conclusion draw from it. One group of research is rarely sufficient to establish a general conclusion. Unless it can be shown that this group can be representative of all the infants in the world, the conclusion which is based on this research is completely unwarranted. In fact, in face of such limited evidence, it is fallacious to draw any conclusion at all. Another problem is the representativeness of the respondents. Were they representative of all the infants from the same area? Were the scientists chosen for the research chosen randomly? All these uncertain factors drive us cannot have a right conclusion.

Secondly, even if the study is statistically reliable, the author’s further assumption that increased levels of melatonin before birth causes shyness during infancy based on a study about 25 infants is still unwarranted. The methodology of the study is open to doubt. The author simply informs us that the 25 infants who are more likely to be conceived in early autumn showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli. Yet the argument contains no information about the reflection of infants who were not conceived in early autumn to these unfamiliar stimuli. Lacking such important information, given that the stimuli are unfamiliar, it entirely possible（这里无动词） that most of infants will show mild distress.这句好别扭，都不知道怎么改了，重新写了句如下：This missing information might be the key of the whole research and the unfamiliar stimuli might be affected to every infant which did not have the same quality of melatonin as this group did. The author cannot expect us to take seriously the researches by these uncertain factors. If the scenario is true, perhaps the mild distress is a sign of discomfort responded to the stimuli but rather shyness. Thus, the study would not serve to establish the casual relationship between increased melatonin level and shyness during infancy.

Thirdly, even assuming that the study of 25 infants 13 years ago is reliable, the argument relies partly on the follow-up study, which is also problematic in three aspects. First, since the study based on self-report, it is entirely possible that the questions are leading. If so, children would just respond with the expected answers, and therefore the result might be unreliable. Moreover, given that 删掉 the argument provides no information about proportion of other children who think they were shy, perhaps all teenagers at this age are more likely to feel shy. Besides, the author also fails to provide information about the living condition of these children during the 13 years. Lacking this crucial information, +the argument cannot lead to the expected answers. Perhaps most of these children are all from poor families which make them do not have the opportunities to go to school, and thereby they do not have enough chances to communicate with their peers. If this is the case, it is their poor families but rather the melatonin that responsible for their shyness after they grow up.
这段论证很清楚

In sum, this argument is logical flawed in several aspects as discussed above. To improve the argument, the author should substantiate that cited study is statistically reliable. To make it more convincing, the author must establish a casual relationship between increased melatonin level and infants’ shyness. Moreover, the argument could be better improved by adjusting the methodology of the follow-up study.


Laner 很喜欢用 verb + no 而不用 do not + verb```
有时可以换换`` 不是太清楚这样用是否正规。
btw 总体感觉不错````